meteo





15UTC: TC SAVANNAH(19S) category 1 US may reach top cat2 or even cat3 within 48hours over the open South Indian seas


Warning 11/JTWC


FY2G AT 09UTC
FY2G AT 09UTC
My own estimate is sustained winds(1mn) at 75kt gusting to 90kt. This system has the potential to intensify rapidly next 24/36hours.

https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
TC SAVANNAH(19S)
As of 12:00 UTC Mar 16, 2019:

Location: 15.3°S 93.0°E
Maximum Winds: 65 kt ( 120km/h)
Gusts: 80 kt ( 150km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 mb

REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 92.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (SAVANNAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 296 NM
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY WITH
DEEPENED RAIN BANDS SPIRALING INTO A 20NM CLOUD-FILLED EYE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE
FEATURE, ADJUSTED FOR A NORTHWARD TILT BY LINING UP WITH A
WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 180846Z SSMI IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 65 KTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY
DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE INTENSIFICATION. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
MARGINAL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT
27-28C ARE CONDUCIVE, RESULTING IN AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO STEER TC
19S SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. THE OVERALL
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL FUEL GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION
TO 95 KTS BY TAU 48. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COLD DRY AIR
INTRUSION WILL MOSTLY CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN TO 40 KTS BY TAU
120. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GRADUAL SPREADING TO
160 NM BY TAU 120, LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST
THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z,
170900Z AND 171500Z.//
NNNN



1241UTC
1241UTC


1241UTC
1241UTC

1225UTC
1225UTC

1053UTC
1053UTC

0830UTC
0830UTC

0830UTC
0830UTC


HWRF AT 06UTC: 106KT AT +54H
HWRF AT 06UTC: 106KT AT +54H

GFS AT 06UTC: 76KT AT +42H
GFS AT 06UTC: 76KT AT +42H


Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Samedi 16 Mars 2019 à 18:54