meteo





09UTC: TD 03W at 1800km east of Mindanao, not much intensification forecast, could dissipate close to Mindanao in 3 days


Warning 2/JTWC


https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
TD 03W
As of 06:00 UTC Mar 15, 2019:

Location: 8.0°N 144.4°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt ( 45km/h)
Gusts: 35 kt ( 65km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 1001 mb
WDPN31 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE)
WARNING NR 002//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
  TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING
DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND IS
BASED ON A 150405Z 36GHZ AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTION IS PRIMARILY LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE
OF T1.0 (25 KNOTS) FROM PGTW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS TD 03W IS
EXPERIENCING NEUTRAL TO UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 TO 25
KNOTS). TD 03W HAS MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW BUT NO EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT,
BETWEEN 28 AND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. TD 03W IS TRACKING WESTWARD WHILE
ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO
THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. THROUGH TAU 24, TD 03W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY
WESTWARD WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. A SLIGHT WEAKENING IN THE STR WILL ALLOW A
SMALL NORTHWARD COMPONENT IN THE TRACK THROUGH TAU 24. BEYOND TAU 24,
TD 03W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD. A SECOND STR WILL
BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE AND WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT
SOUTHWARD COMPONENT IN THE TRACK. LIMITED UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL
PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. SLIGHTLY FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW TD 03W TO ONLY
REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS BEFORE DISSIPATING BY TAU 72.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING A
WESTWARD TRACK. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE WEAK NATURE OF THE SYSTEM THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

WARNING 2/JTWC
WARNING 2/JTWC

WARNING 2/JTWC
WARNING 2/JTWC

0522UTC
0522UTC

0406UTC
0406UTC


HWRF AT 00UTC: 43KT AT +90H
HWRF AT 00UTC: 43KT AT +90H

GFS AT 00UTC: 47KT AT +30H
GFS AT 00UTC: 47KT AT +30H
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Vendredi 15 Mars 2019 à 14:02 | Lu 125 fois