meteo





03UTC: Cyclone SAVANNAH(19S) : intensifying in the middle of the South Indian Ocean


Warning 9/JTWC


0330UTC
0330UTC
Compact system with very good microwave satellite signature whereas the infra-red signature has been lagging behind(with Dvorak at 3.5). The intensity is difficult to assess with confidence.

https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
TC SAVANNAH(19S)
As of 00:00 UTC Mar 16, 2019:

Location: 14.9°S 93.8°E
Maximum Winds: 60 kt ( 110km/h)
Gusts: 75 kt ( 140km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 990 mb

REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 93.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (SAVANNAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 247 NM
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN OBLONG 70-110 NM CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE USING
A 160006Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION
SURROUNDING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 60 KTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM T3.5-4.5 (55-77 KTS), HEDGED CLOSER TO 55 KTS BASED ON THE EIR
IMAGERY. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
BEING HAMPERED BY MARGINAL OUTFLOW. FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST, TC 19S WILL BE CAUGHT BETWEEN A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO
THE EAST AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THE SOUTHWEST, CAUSING THE
SYSTEM TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO ALLOW INTENSIFICATION TO 80 KTS BY TAU
48. AFTER TAU 48, INCREASING VWS WILL CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN TO
40 KTS BY TAU 120. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH DEPICTS A
WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE STR AND SOUTHWARD TRACK BEYOND TAU 72, DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS
THE CONSENSUS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 160000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z, 161500Z, 162100Z
AND 170300Z.//
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WARNING 9/JTWC
WARNING 9/JTWC

WARNING 9/JTWC
WARNING 9/JTWC

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00UTC
00UTC



HWRF AT 18UTC: 81KT AT +42H
HWRF AT 18UTC: 81KT AT +42H

GFS AT 18UTC: 71KT AT +66H
GFS AT 18UTC: 71KT AT +66H


Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Samedi 16 Mars 2019 à 08:09