meteo





15UTC: TD 03W could be dissipating over southern Mindanao in 2 days and may bring needed rain


Warning 3/JTWC


WARNING 3/JTWC
WARNING 3/JTWC
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
TD 03W
As of 12:00 UTC Mar 15, 2019:

Location: 7.9°N 141.7°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt ( 45km/h)
Gusts: 35 kt ( 65km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 mb
WDPN31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE)
WARNING NR 003//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 436 NM
EAST OF KOROR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 151144Z MHS 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WEAKLY
DEFINED LLCC WITH LIMITED CURVED BANDING OVER THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT. BASED ON THE EIR, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T1.0 TO T1.5 (25 KNOTS).
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND BROAD DIFFLUENCE. TD 03W IS
TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 03W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
STR. PERSISTENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LIMITED UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW
WILL PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS OVER MINDANAO NEAR TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

1230UTC
1230UTC

1135UTC
1135UTC


0931UTC
0931UTC


HWRF AT 06UTC: 39KT AT +36H
HWRF AT 06UTC: 39KT AT +36H

GFS AT 06UTC: 36KT AT +30H
GFS AT 06UTC: 36KT AT +30H
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Vendredi 15 Mars 2019 à 18:22