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15UTC: TC SAVANNAH(19S) intensifying over the South Indian possibly reaching Category 1 US ahead of forecast


Warning 7/JTWC


10UTC
10UTC
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
TC SAVANNAH(19S)
As of 12:00 UTC Mar 15, 2019:

Location: 14.4°S 94.8°E
Maximum Winds: 55 kt ( 100km/h)
Gusts: 70 kt ( 130km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 995 mb
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 94.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (SAVANNAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE
PERSISTING OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 151255Z SSMIS
91GHZ IMAGE INDICATES TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING AROUND A
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON
THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM T3.0 (45 KNOTS) TO T4.0 (65 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS SHOWS TC 19S IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND HAS MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNELS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT,
NEAR 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 19S WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD WHILE
POSITIONED BETWEEN A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST. FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW TC 19S TO STEADILY INCREASE
IN INTENSITY, REACHING 80 KNOTS BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48. HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 48 MODEL
GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE WITH A SPREAD OF 300 NM BY TAU 120. THE
JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, SLIGHTLY
FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLUTION. DUE TO THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD BY TAU
120 THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z AND 161500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S
(IDAI) FINAL WARNING (WTXS32 PGTW).//
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WARNING 7/JTWC
WARNING 7/JTWC

WARNING 7/JTWC
WARNING 7/JTWC


1256UTC
1256UTC

1238UTC
1238UTC

1230UTC
1230UTC

1106UTC
1106UTC

0850UTC
0850UTC


HWRF AT 06UTC: 59KT AT +120H
HWRF AT 06UTC: 59KT AT +120H

GFS AT 06UTC: 72KT AT +72H
GFS AT 06UTC: 72KT AT +72H
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Vendredi 15 Mars 2019 à 17:54 | Lu 221 fois