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09UTC: TC SAVANNAH(19S) tracking apprx 100km to the Cocos islands and intensifying gradually


Warning 2/JTWC


09UTC
09UTC
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
TC SAVANNAH(19S)
As of 06:00 UTC Mar 14, 2019:

Location: 12.0°S 96.0°E
Maximum Winds: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Gusts: 50 kt ( 95km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure:  mb
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 12.3S 95.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (SAVANNAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 50NM
WEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 140249Z
MHS 89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES SHALLOW BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER POSITIONED ON
THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE PERSISTENT CORE CONVECTION. OVERALL, THERE
IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 (35 KNOTS) TO T3.0 (45 KNOTS).
ADDITIONALLY, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM COCOS ISLAND (YPCC) SHOW
STEADY NORTHERLY WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS SUSTAINED (10-MINUTE
AVERAGE) GUSTING AS HIGH AS 36 KNOTS. THESE WINDS SUPPORT THE
INITIAL POSITION (BASED ON THE 360-010 WIND DIRECTION) AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT AFTER CONVERTING TO A 1-MINUTE AVERAGE.
TC 19S IS LOCATED WITHIN A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH A
WEAK NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE EAST AND A BUILDING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST. THROUGH TAU 36, TC 19S
WILL TRACK SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE NER. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN SOUTHWESTWARD TO WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE STR BECOMES THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH IS HIGHLY ERRONEOUS, THE
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A
SPREAD OF 145NM AT TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
LARGELY DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEED, WITH A SPREAD
OF 400NM AT TAU 120. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. DUE TO THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, TC 19S
SHOULD INTENSIFY STEADILY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD TO A PEAK OF
65 KNOTS BY TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z AND 150900Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IDAI) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN


HWRF AT 00UTC: 106KT AT +86H
HWRF AT 00UTC: 106KT AT +86H

GFS AT 00UTC: 78KT AT +114H
GFS AT 00UTC: 78KT AT +114H
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Jeudi 14 Mars 2019 à 13:55 | Lu 70 fois