JTWC Patrick Hoareau | Météo.Cyclones.World@PH

Météo.Cyclones.World@PH

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12S(ELOISE) made landfall apprx 50km south of Antalaha, forecast to re-intensify significantly once over the MOZ Channel - 01/20/2021 - 02:30

THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE USING LOW-CLOUD TRACING IN THE EIR LOOP AND TRIANGULATION FROM COASTAL WIND OBSERVATIONS, INCLUDING ANTALAHA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45KNOTS IS...

12S(ELOISE) should be making landfall near Antalaha by 12hours, forecast to intensify significantly once over the MOZ Channel - 01/19/2021 - 13:35

12S(ELOISE) IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN MADAGASCAR BY 12H THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN TO 30 KNOTS AS IT TRANSITS ACROSS THE RUGGED ISLAND TERRAIN BEFORE EXITING OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IN...

10S(JOSHUA): Final warning, Peak Intensity was 45knots - 01/19/2021 - 11:45

19/03UTC. WARNING 8.THIS SYSTEM HAS FALLEN BELOW THE JTWC WARNING THRESHOLD OF 35KNOTS AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO RECOVER. AS SUCH, THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN...

Invest 90W under watch, Medium chances of development next 24hours - 01/19/2021 - 05:10

CENTER LOCATION AT 19/00UTC, APPRX 55KM WEST NORTHWEST OF TACLOBAN CITY. 2021 JAN 19 0050UTC #WESTERNNORTHPACIFIC INVEST #90W As of 00:00 UTC Jan 19, 2021: Location: 11.3°N 124.5°E Maximum Winds:...

11P(KIMI): Final Warning as the system is unravelling, Peak Intensity was 55knots - 01/19/2021 - 04:35

WARNING 8. THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO RE-CONSOLIDATE. THE REMNANTS OF TC 11P WILL LIKELY DRIFT NORTHWARD WITH THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON...

10S(JOSHUA) is weakening due to dry air entrainment, 18/15utc update - 01/18/2021 - 20:55

10S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 48H.THERE IS EVIDENCE OF SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR...

11P(KIMI) has weakened significantly for the past 6hours, 18/15utc update - 01/18/2021 - 20:30

THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EQUATORWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH STEADY WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION ANTICIPATED BY 24H. DUE TO THE COMPLEX, EVOLVING STEERING INFLUENCES AND POOR MODEL AGREEMENT,...

11P(KIMI) is no longer forecast to intensify and make landfall, 18/09utc update - 01/18/2021 - 14:10

THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD WITH RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING AN EASTWARD TURN.WILL BECOME QUASI- STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS WITH AN EQUATORWARD TRACK CHANGE BY 36H....

12S(ELOISE) intensifying steadily next 36hours and approaching Antalaha area, 18/09utc update - 01/18/2021 - 13:00

WARNING 3. FORECAST TO TRACK WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN FLANK OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ENTRENCHED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH. 12S IS FORECAST TO...

11P(KIMI) is slowly approaching Townsville, 12S(ELOISE) is slowly intensifying and approaching NorthEast Madagascar,18/03utc update - 01/18/2021 - 07:45

THE JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON 10S(JOSHUA) AND 12S(ELOISE) AND 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON 11P(KIMI). 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE PROVIDED FOR THE 3 SYSTEMS.

Southern Hemisphere: 3 tropical systems being monitored, 10S(JOSHUA), 11P(KIMI) and recently numbered 12S(ELOISE) - 01/17/2021 - 13:25

THE JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON 10S(JOSHUA) AND 12S(ELOISE) AND 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON 11P(KIMI). 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE PROVIDED FOR THE 3 SYSTEMS. 2021 JAN 17 0730UTC TC #10S...

South Pacific: 11P(KIMI) has developed rapidly into a midget cyclone apprx 200km to Cairns/Australia - 01/17/2021 - 08:05

2021 JAN 17 0330UTC TC #11P #KIMI #SOUTHPACIFICOCEAN As of 00:00 UTC Jan 17, 2021: WARNING 1 Location: 15.1°S 146.4°E Maximum Winds: 45 kt ( 85km/h) Gusts: 55 kt ( 100km/h) Minimum Central...

Invest 90S is now TC 10S. A TCFA has been issued for Invest 99S, 16/00utc updates - 01/16/2021 - 07:15

INVEST #90S IS NOW TC 10S: LOCATED AT 16/00UTC APPRX 595KM SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. INVEST 99S: LOCATED AT 16/00UTC APPRX 875KM NORTH NORTHEAST OF RODRIGUES ISLAND. 2021 JAN 16 0235UTC TC...

South Indian: 15/06utc updates on Invest 90S and Invest 99S, 99S may intensify significantly after 72hours and threaten Madagascar - 01/15/2021 - 13:11

INVEST 90S: LOCATED AT 15/06UTC APPRX 420KM SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. INVEST 99S: LOCATED AT 15/06UTC APPRX 1215KM NORTH NORTHEAST OF RODRIGUES ISLAND. 2021 JAN 15 0830UTC INVEST #90S...

South Indian Ocean: Two areas under close watch, Invest 90S and Invest 99S - 01/14/2021 - 14:45

INVEST 90S: LOCATED AT 14/06UTC APPRX 150KM SOUTH SOUTH-WEST OF COCOS ISLAND. INVEST 99S: LOCATED AT 14/06UTC APPRX 1420KM EAST NORTH-EAST OF RODRIGUES ISLAND. 2021 JAN 14 10UTC INVEST #90S...

South Indian Ocean: Invest 99S will be closely monitored next several days - 01/12/2021 - 00:05

11/1624UTC. ASCAT REVEALED A WEAK BUT WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1500KM EAST SOUTHEAST OF DIÉGO GARCIA AT 11/18UTC. 2021 JAN 11 1945UTC #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN...

Remnants of 08S(DANILO), Invest 98S & 99S : Update at 11/06utc - 01/11/2021 - 12:00

REMNANTS OF 08S(DANILO). VERY WEAK SYSTEM LOCATED APPRX 65KM TO MAURITIUS AT 11/06UTC. 2021 JAN 11 0735UTC #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN REMNANTS OF #08S #DANILO UPDATE As of 06:00 UTC Jan 11, 2021:...

Remnants of 08S(DANILO) and Invest 98S: Update at 10/06utc - 01/10/2021 - 11:45

REMNANTS OF 08S(DANILO): VERY WEAK SYSTEM.LOCATED APPRX 275 ENE OF MAURITIUS AND 500KM ENE OF RÉUNION. STILL BEING CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION WHICH ARE UNLIKELY. 2021 JAN 10...

Remnants of 08S(DANILO) and Invest 98S: Update at 09/06utc - 01/09/2021 - 11:40

THE TWO SYSTEMS ARE 3930KM APART. 09/06UTC.REMNANTS OF DANILO(08S): LOCATED APPRX 280KM NNE OF RODRIGUES, 715KM ENE OF MAURITIUS AND 940KM ENE OF RÉUNION.BEING CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF...

08S(DANILO) Final warning issued but the system will be closely monitored for signs of regeneration - 01/09/2021 - 07:45

08S (DANILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 750 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS/MAURITIUS HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 24 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING FROM JTWC. THE SYSTEM WILL BE...

Weakened 08S(DANILO) forecast to re-intensify and approach Mauritius/Réunion islands, 08/15utc update - 01/08/2021 - 18:31

AS OUTFLOW SLOWLY IMPROVES OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS, THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 40 KNOTS BY 48H. 08S (DANILO),LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1000KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT...

DANILO(08S): 550km NE of Rodrigues, slightly intensified, approaching the Mascarenes, 08/03utc update - 01/08/2021 - 07:45

08S(DANILO) CONTINUES TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING AND CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION. 08S(DANILO) IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN...

DANILO(08S) : forecast to track very close or over Mauritius shortly after 72h with 40knots sustained winds - 01/07/2021 - 19:10

BY 48H, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE TO THE EAST, ALLOWING 08S(DANILO) TO BEGIN TRACKING MORE SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS MAURITIUS. 08S(DANILO)LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1435KM...

DANILO(08S) is slowly approaching the Mascarenes, slightly improved satellite signature, 07/03utc update - 01/07/2021 - 07:25

TC 08S IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH 48H. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS AT 24H BEFORE WEAKENING TO 35 KNOTS AT 48H. AFTER 48H, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN...

DANILO(08S) is forecast to approach the Mascarene islands as a minimal TC, update at 06/15UTC - 01/06/2021 - 19:06

TC 08S WILL MOVE WESTWARD UP TO 48H THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TO...

DANILO(08S) : forecast to approach the Mascarane islands next 5 days as a weak system, remnants of 09P upgraded to Low - 01/06/2021 - 07:00

TC 08S SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THE HWRF SUGGESTS...

08S(DANILO) is forecast to approach the Mascarene islands next 5 days, intensity forecast down from previous warning - 01/05/2021 - 18:45

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE(STR) TO THE SOUTH WILL DRIVE 08S(DANILO) WESTWARD UP TO 72H THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. INTENSITY FORECAST IS NOW SIGNIFICANTLY...

TC 08S(DANILO): has reached US/Category 1, Confidence in the track forecast is now high - 01/05/2021 - 08:00

OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS TC 08S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD AND THEN TURN SOUTHWESTWARD.BY 24H THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN A WESTWARD TRAJECTORY THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 96H.IN THE NEAR TERM TC DANILO...

TC 08S(DANILO): forecast to reach US/Category1 in 72 hours, moderate confidence in the JTWC forecast - 01/04/2021 - 19:00

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TC 08S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT.BY 36H THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN SUFFICIENTLY TO PUSH THE SYSTEM TO A...

TC 08S(DANILO): confidence in the forecast is increasing, 04/03utc update - 01/04/2021 - 07:30

WARNING 10: THERE IS NOW MODERATE UNCERTAINTY WITH IMPROVED AGREEMENT IN THE MODEL TRACKERS AND A NEAR-COMPLETE FUJIWHARA INTERACTION WITH THE REMNANTS OF INVEST 93S, LENDING MODERATE CONFIDENCE TO...

Les News

WESTERN PACIFIC:TY 07W(MEKKHALA) approaching OKINAWA while weakening/08W(HIGOS) to merge with 07W in approx 60h/Invest 95W//24@1030 UTC

06/24/2026 - PATRICK HOAREAU

WESTERN PACIFIC:Typhoon 07W(MEKKHALA) Rapid Intensification likely next 24h forecast Peak Intensity at CAT 4 US in 48h/ Invest 94W//21@1000 UTC

06/21/2026 - PATRICK HOAREAU

WESTERN PACIFIC: TS 07W(MEKKHALA) forecast to reach Typhoon Intensity by 24h, forecast to peak at CAT 3 US in 72h//20@1000 UTC

06/20/2026 - PATRICK HOAREAU

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