Final Warnings issued for 01W(DUJAN) and 21S(GUAMBE). Invest 94P on the map. 22/03utc updates


22/06UTC. JTWC ISSUED FINAL WARNINGS ON 01W(DUJUAN) AND 21S(GUAMBE) AT 22/03UTC. 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE STILL PROVIDED FOR BOTH SYSTEMS. INVEST 94P IS NOW ON THE MAP WITH LOW CHANCES OF DEVELOPMENT AT THE MOMENT BUT BEING CLOSELY MONITORED.


22/06UTC. JTWC ISSUED FINAL WARNINGS ON 01W(DUJUAN) AND 21S(GUAMBE) AT 22/03UTC. 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE STILL PROVIDED FOR BOTH SYSTEMS. INVEST 94P IS NOW ON THE MAP WITH LOW CHANCES OF DEVELOPMENT AT THE MOMENT BUT BEING CLOSELY MONITORED.
22/06UTC. JTWC ISSUED FINAL WARNINGS ON 01W(DUJUAN) AND 21S(GUAMBE) AT 22/03UTC. 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE STILL PROVIDED FOR BOTH SYSTEMS. INVEST 94P IS NOW ON THE MAP WITH LOW CHANCES OF DEVELOPMENT AT THE MOMENT BUT BEING CLOSELY MONITORED.
2021 FEB 22 0330UTC #WESTERNNORTHPACIFIC 
TD #01W #DUJUAN 
WARNING 20
As of 00:00 UTC Feb 22, 2021:
Location: 10.4°N 125.7°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Gusts: 35 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 mb
WEAKENING
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (DUJUAN), LOCATED AT 22/00UTC APPROXIMATELY 140KM SOUTHEAST OF ORMOC CITY/LEYTE HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09KM/H OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
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#SOUTHERNHEMISPHERE
TC #21S #GUAMBE  #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN #MOZAMBIQUECHANNEL
WARNING 10
As of 00:00 UTC Feb 22, 2021:
Location: 34.0°S 44.9°E
Maximum Winds: 55 kt (100km/h)
Gusts: 70 kt ( 130km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 980 mb
EXTRATROPICAL
21S (GUAMBE), LOCATED AT 22/00UTC APPROXIMATELY 1400KM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ILE AUX COCHONS HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 65KM/H OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
----------------------------------------
Patrick Hoareau
 Météo974
M974World
Cyclone Class 4
 Cheers,PH.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

01W(DUJUAN). WARNING 20 ISSUED AT 22/03UTC.TD 01W IS TRACKING NORTHWESTARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN  PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM  WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL  PHILIPPINE ISLANDS AND STEADILY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24  HOURS AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES, ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE  TEMPERATURE DECREASES AND THE CIRCULATION INTERACTS OCCASIONALLY  WITH LAND. NUMERICAL MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL  AGREEMENT REGARDING THE SPEED AND DIRECTION OF THE DISSIPATING  SYSTEM, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST.  THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN  PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF  REGENERATION.
01W(DUJUAN). WARNING 20 ISSUED AT 22/03UTC.TD 01W IS TRACKING NORTHWESTARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINE ISLANDS AND STEADILY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES, ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE DECREASES AND THE CIRCULATION INTERACTS OCCASIONALLY WITH LAND. NUMERICAL MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE SPEED AND DIRECTION OF THE DISSIPATING SYSTEM, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.

01W(DUJUAN). ESTIMATED PEAK INTENSITY WAS 45KNOTS.
01W(DUJUAN). ESTIMATED PEAK INTENSITY WAS 45KNOTS.
JMV FILE
0121021412  60N1418E  15
0121021418  60N1413E  20
0121021500  60N1408E  20
0121021506  61N1403E  20
0121021512  62N1397E  20
0121021518  65N1385E  20
0121021600  67N1373E  20
0121021606  68N1364E  20
0121021612  68N1358E  20
0121021618  68N1349E  20
0121021700  67N1343E  20
0121021706  67N1337E  25
0121021712  67N1333E  30
0121021718  69N1329E  30
0121021800  71N1325E  35
0121021806  73N1321E  35
0121021812  72N1319E  35
0121021818  69N1318E  40
0121021900  67N1315E  45
0121021906  65N1313E  45
0121021912  63N1308E  45
0121021918  61N1309E  45

0121022000  64N1313E  35
0121022006  70N1316E  30
0121022012  78N1312E  30
0121022018  81N1306E  30
0121022100  85N1294E  30
0121022106  91N1281E  30
0121022112  96N1269E  30
0121022118 101N1261E  25
0121022200 104N1257E  25
NNNN

21S(GUAMBE). WARNING 10 ISSUED AT 22/03UTC.THE CURRENT POSITION IS SITUATED WITHIN A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED CENTER FEATURE EVIDENT IN 220000Z  INFRARED SATELLITE AND 220056Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY  IS CONSISTENT WITH TIME-LATE ASCAT DATA FROM AROUND 211800Z, WHICH  INDICATED AN INTENSITY AROUND OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 55 KNOTS. TC  21S IS RAPIDLY ACCELERATING INTO THE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN AS IT  MERGERS WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. FOLLOWING A RAPID TRANSITION,  21S NOW FULLY EXTRATROPICAL. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE  RAPIDLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AS A STORM FORCE LOW WITH BAROCLINIC  SUPPORT DURING THE 12-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS THE FINAL  WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
21S(GUAMBE). WARNING 10 ISSUED AT 22/03UTC.THE CURRENT POSITION IS SITUATED WITHIN A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED CENTER FEATURE EVIDENT IN 220000Z INFRARED SATELLITE AND 220056Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH TIME-LATE ASCAT DATA FROM AROUND 211800Z, WHICH INDICATED AN INTENSITY AROUND OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 55 KNOTS. TC 21S IS RAPIDLY ACCELERATING INTO THE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN AS IT MERGERS WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. FOLLOWING A RAPID TRANSITION, 21S NOW FULLY EXTRATROPICAL. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AS A STORM FORCE LOW WITH BAROCLINIC SUPPORT DURING THE 12-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.

21S(GUAMBE). ESTIMATED PEAK INTENSITY WAS 85KNOTS/US CATEGORY 2.
21S(GUAMBE). ESTIMATED PEAK INTENSITY WAS 85KNOTS/US CATEGORY 2.
JMV FILE
2121021200 229S 361E  25
2121021206 224S 353E  20
2121021212 221S 345E  20
2121021218 220S 347E  20
2121021300 221S 350E  20
2121021306 225S 351E  20
2121021312 229S 343E  20
2121021318 233S 338E  20
2121021400 233S 328E  20
2121021406 233S 323E  20
2121021412 231S 319E  20
2121021418 230S 322E  25
2121021500 228S 325E  25
2121021506 225S 332E  25
2121021512 223S 338E  25
2121021518 219S 340E  25
2121021600 216S 351E  25
2121021606 218S 358E  20
2121021612 217S 363E  20
2121021618 212S 366E  25
2121021700 211S 370E  25
2121021706 213S 373E  30
2121021712 215S 374E  40
2121021718 217S 374E  45
2121021800 221S 374E  45
2121021806 226S 376E  50
2121021806 226S 376E  50
2121021812 230S 375E  50
2121021818 236S 374E  60
2121021900 241S 372E  65
2121021906 244S 368E  70
2121021912 249S 365E  85
2121021918 252S 364E  85

2121022000 257S 363E  75
2121022006 260S 363E  70
2121022012 267S 365E  65
2121022018 274S 367E  65
2121022100 287S 375E  65
2121022106 299S 384E  55
2121022112 308S 393E  50
2121022118 325S 413E  55
2121022200 340S 449E  55
2121022200 340S 449E  55
2121022206 362S 482E  55
NNNN

21S(GUAMBE). 22/0610UTC. ASCAT-B DEPICTED AT LEAST 50KNOT WINDS NORTH AND NORTH-EAST OF THE CENTER OF THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE..
21S(GUAMBE). 22/0610UTC. ASCAT-B DEPICTED AT LEAST 50KNOT WINDS NORTH AND NORTH-EAST OF THE CENTER OF THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE..
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Lundi 22 Février 2021 à 08:20