01W(DUJUAN): tracking across Leyte, Romblon,Mindoro next 24/36hours//21S(GUAMBE): becoming extratropical by 12h, 21/15utc updates


01W(DUJUAN). 21/14UTC. THE 5H ANIMATION SHOWS THE RAIN-BANDS TRACKING OVER LEYTE AND THE SURROUNDING AREAS. PH. CLICK TO ANIMATE IF NEEDED.


01W(DUJUAN). 21/14UTC. THE 5H ANIMATION SHOWS THE RAIN-BANDS TRACKING OVER LEYTE AND THE SURROUNDING AREAS. PH. CLICK TO ANIMATE IF NEEDED.
01W(DUJUAN). 21/14UTC. THE 5H ANIMATION SHOWS THE RAIN-BANDS TRACKING OVER LEYTE AND THE SURROUNDING AREAS. PH. CLICK TO ANIMATE IF NEEDED.
2021 FEB 21 1440UTC #WESTERNNORTHPACIFIC 
TS #01W #DUJUAN 
WARNING 18
As of 12:00 UTC Feb 21, 2021:
Location: 10.3°N 125.8°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt (65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 mb
TROPICAL STORM 01W (DUJUAN), LOCATED AT 21/12UTC APPROXIMATELY 150KM SOUTHEAST OF ORMOC CITY/LEYTE HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 43KM/H OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
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#SOUTHERNHEMISPHERE
TC #21S #GUAMBE  #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN #MOZAMBIQUECHANNEL
WARNING 9
As of 12:00 UTC Feb 21, 2021:
Location: 30.9°S 39.2°E
Maximum Winds: 45 kt (85km/h)
Gusts: 55 kt ( 100km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 990 mb
WEAKENING AND BEGINNING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY 12H.
TC 21S (GUAMBE), LOCATED AT 21/12UTC APPROXIMATELY 1930KM NORTHWEST OF ILE AUX COCHONS HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 21KM/H OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
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Patrick Hoareau
 Météo974
M974World
Cyclone Class 4
 Cheers,PH.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

01W(DUJUAN). WARNING 18 ISSUED AT 21/15UTC.ANALYSIS INDICATES WARM (29C) ALONG-TRACK SST IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA AND  ROBUST WEST AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. RELATIVE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS  MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE DUE TO THE STORM MOTION BEING IN-PHASE WITH THE  MID AND UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING UNDER THE  STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.   UNDER THE STR, TS DUJUAN WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD  ACROSS THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINE ISLANDS INCLUDING LEYTE, ROMBLON, AND  MINDORO, BEFORE EXITING INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA BY 36H. INCREASED  RELATIVE WIND SHEAR (25KTS+) COMBINED WITH THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF THE  RUGGED TERRAIN WILL ERODE THE TS TO DISSIPATION BY 36H, POSSIBLY  SOONER.
01W(DUJUAN). WARNING 18 ISSUED AT 21/15UTC.ANALYSIS INDICATES WARM (29C) ALONG-TRACK SST IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA AND ROBUST WEST AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. RELATIVE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE DUE TO THE STORM MOTION BEING IN-PHASE WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST. UNDER THE STR, TS DUJUAN WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINE ISLANDS INCLUDING LEYTE, ROMBLON, AND MINDORO, BEFORE EXITING INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA BY 36H. INCREASED RELATIVE WIND SHEAR (25KTS+) COMBINED WITH THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF THE RUGGED TERRAIN WILL ERODE THE TS TO DISSIPATION BY 36H, POSSIBLY SOONER.

01W(DUJUAN). NUMERICAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY TO 425KM+ BY 36H WITH  NAVGEM ON THE RIGHT AND AEMN ON THE LEFT MARGIN OF THE ENVELOPE. THIS  INDICATES UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS TRACKING A WEAK VORTEX, LENDING  OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST BEYOND 12H.
01W(DUJUAN). NUMERICAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY TO 425KM+ BY 36H WITH NAVGEM ON THE RIGHT AND AEMN ON THE LEFT MARGIN OF THE ENVELOPE. THIS INDICATES UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS TRACKING A WEAK VORTEX, LENDING OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST BEYOND 12H.

01W(DUJUAN). 21/1430UTC. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEP, EXPANSIVE, FLARING CONVECTION  AHEAD OF THE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) HAS RAPIDLY ERODED AND  SHRUNK AS IT TRACKED ACROSS THE RAGGED TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL  PHILIPPINE ISLANDS.
01W(DUJUAN). 21/1430UTC. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEP, EXPANSIVE, FLARING CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) HAS RAPIDLY ERODED AND SHRUNK AS IT TRACKED ACROSS THE RAGGED TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINE ISLANDS.

21S(GUAMBE). WARNING 9 ISSUED AT 21/15UTC. ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY INCREASING VERTICAL WIND  SHEAR (20KTS+), AND COOLING SST (26C AND DROPPING). TC 21S WILL  CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE  MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WILL SUSTAIN THE INTENSITY UP TO 12H,  AFTERWARD, DOWN TO 40KNOTS BY 24H. CONCURRENTLY, THE SYSTEM WILL  BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY 12H AND TRANSFORM INTO A STORM- FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD BY 24H.
21S(GUAMBE). WARNING 9 ISSUED AT 21/15UTC. ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20KTS+), AND COOLING SST (26C AND DROPPING). TC 21S WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WILL SUSTAIN THE INTENSITY UP TO 12H, AFTERWARD, DOWN TO 40KNOTS BY 24H. CONCURRENTLY, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY 12H AND TRANSFORM INTO A STORM- FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD BY 24H.

21S(GUAMBE). NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO  THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
21S(GUAMBE). NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.

21S(GUAMBE). 21/1430UTC. RECENT SATELLITE DATA ARE SHOWING INTENSIFYING CONVECTION NEAR THE THE LOW LEVEL CENTER WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF A POSSIBLE SHORT PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE NEXT 12/18HOURS. PATRICK HOAREAU(PH).
21S(GUAMBE). 21/1430UTC. RECENT SATELLITE DATA ARE SHOWING INTENSIFYING CONVECTION NEAR THE THE LOW LEVEL CENTER WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF A POSSIBLE SHORT PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE NEXT 12/18HOURS. PATRICK HOAREAU(PH).

21S(GUAMBE). 21/0946UTC. MICROWAVE DEPICT STRONGER RAIN-BANDS ON THE WESTERN QUADRANT. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WAS WELL DEPICTED BUT THE CORE REMAINED DEEP CONVECTION-FREE. PH.
21S(GUAMBE). 21/0946UTC. MICROWAVE DEPICT STRONGER RAIN-BANDS ON THE WESTERN QUADRANT. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WAS WELL DEPICTED BUT THE CORE REMAINED DEEP CONVECTION-FREE. PH.


21/12UTC.  JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON 01W(DUJUAN) AND 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON 21S(GUAMBE). 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED FOR BOTH SYSTEMS.
21/12UTC. JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON 01W(DUJUAN) AND 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON 21S(GUAMBE). 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED FOR BOTH SYSTEMS.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Dimanche 21 Février 2021 à 19:40