Southern Hemisphere: 19S(FARAJI) down to US/Category 2. 20P forms in the South Pacific Northeast of Raoul island,10/03utc updates


10/0330UTC. JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON 19S(FARAJI). WARNING 1 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR 20P FOLLOWED BY 6HOURLY WARNINGS. 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE PROVIDED FOR BOTH 19S AND 20P.


10/0330UTC. JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON 19S(FARAJI). WARNING 1 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR 20P FOLLOWED BY 6HOURLY WARNINGS. 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE PROVIDED FOR BOTH 19S AND 20P.
10/0330UTC. JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON 19S(FARAJI). WARNING 1 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR 20P FOLLOWED BY 6HOURLY WARNINGS. 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE PROVIDED FOR BOTH 19S AND 20P.
2021 FEB 10 0225UTC #SOUTHERNHEMISPHERE
TC #19S #FARAJI  #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
UPDATE
As of 00:00 UTC Feb 10, 2021:
Location: 15.1°S 85.0°E
Maximum Winds: 95 kt ( 175km/h)
Gusts: 115 kt ( 215km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 962 mb
CATEGORY US: 2
WEAKENING
TC 19S(FARAJI) LOCATED AT 10/00UTC APPROXIMATELY 1615KM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TC #20P #SOUTHPACIFICOCEAN
WARNING 1
As of 00:00 UTC Feb 10, 2021:
Location: 25.1°S 177.7°W
Maximum Winds: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Gusts: 55 kt ( 100km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 991 mb
20P(TWENTY) LOCATED AT 10/00UTC APPROXIMATELY 460KM NORTH NORTHEAST OF RAOUL ISLAND HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 30
KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
 Météo974
M974World
Cyclone Class 4
 Cheers,PH.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

20P(TWENTY). WARNING 1 ISSUED AT 10/03UTC.TC 20P IS TRACKING ALONG  THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE  (NER)POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE NER IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE  SYSTEM GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE DURATION OF THE  FORECAST. IN THE NEAR TERM, THE CONDUCIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPS AND ROBUST OUTFLOW  ALOFT WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM A BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION TO 50  KNOTS BY 12H. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY WEAKEN DUE TO  CONTINUED HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND RAPIDLY COOLING SEAS (20-21 CELSIUS BY 48H). BY 24H, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE  BAROCLINIC ZONE AND START EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
20P(TWENTY). WARNING 1 ISSUED AT 10/03UTC.TC 20P IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER)POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE NER IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE SYSTEM GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. IN THE NEAR TERM, THE CONDUCIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPS AND ROBUST OUTFLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM A BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION TO 50 KNOTS BY 12H. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY WEAKEN DUE TO CONTINUED HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND RAPIDLY COOLING SEAS (20-21 CELSIUS BY 48H). BY 24H, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND START EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.

20P(TWENTY). NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 150  KM AT 36H. AFTER 36H, THE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AS  THE SYSTEM BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW AND COMPLETES  EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY 48H, IF NOT SOONER. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN  THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
20P(TWENTY). NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 150 KM AT 36H. AFTER 36H, THE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW AND COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY 48H, IF NOT SOONER. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

20P(TWENTY). 10/0116UTC. SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE DATA SHOW CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A  PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH THE ASSOCIATED DEEP  CONVECTION BEING SHEARED OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
20P(TWENTY). 10/0116UTC. SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE DATA SHOW CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION BEING SHEARED OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.

19S(FARAJI). 10/0016UTC. THE COMPACT CYCLONE HAS BEEN WEAKENING. A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IS STILL DEPICTED THOUGH.
19S(FARAJI). 10/0016UTC. THE COMPACT CYCLONE HAS BEEN WEAKENING. A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IS STILL DEPICTED THOUGH.

19S(FARAJI). THE CYCLONE IS GRADUALLY MOVING SOUTHWARD BEFORE TURNING WESTWARD.
19S(FARAJI). THE CYCLONE IS GRADUALLY MOVING SOUTHWARD BEFORE TURNING WESTWARD.

19S(FARAJI). 09/1219UTC. SMAP(NASA) READ 10MINUTES 96KNOTS WINDS.
19S(FARAJI). 09/1219UTC. SMAP(NASA) READ 10MINUTES 96KNOTS WINDS.

10/00UTC.
10/00UTC.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mercredi 10 Février 2021 à 07:20