01W(DUJUAN). 20/02UTC. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A LARGE CONVECTIVE MASS SHEARED NORTHWEST AWAY FROM A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DUE TO STRONG LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
2021 FEB 20 03UTC #WESTERNNORTHPACIFIC
TS #01W #DUJUAN
WARNING 12
As of 00:00 UTC Feb 20, 2021:
Location: 6.4°N 131.3°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 mb
TROPICAL STORM 01W (DUJUAN), LOCATED AT 20/00UTC APPROXIMATELY 635 KM EAST OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 09KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
----------------------------------------
Patrick Hoareau
Météo974
M974World
Cyclone Class 4
Cheers,PH.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
TS #01W #DUJUAN
WARNING 12
As of 00:00 UTC Feb 20, 2021:
Location: 6.4°N 131.3°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 mb
TROPICAL STORM 01W (DUJUAN), LOCATED AT 20/00UTC APPROXIMATELY 635 KM EAST OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 09KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
----------------------------------------
Patrick Hoareau
Météo974
M974World
Cyclone Class 4
Cheers,PH.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
01W(DUJUAN). WARNING 12 ISSUED AT 20/03UTC.ENVIRONMENTAL AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS SHOWS POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST); HOWEVER, THE STRONG (25-30 KT) EASTERLY WIND SHEAR HAS ERODED THE SYSTEM STRUCTURE AND DECOUPLED THE UPPER AND LOWER-LEVEL PORTIONS OF THE SYSTEM. TS 01W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. TS 01W IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD, AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE(STR) CENTERED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE EAST. TS DUJUAN WILL MOVE ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE STR WITH A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEAST OF MINDANAO AND MAKE LANDFALL NEAR LEYTE BETWEEN 36 AND 48H, THEN CONTINUE TO TRACK OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINE ISLANDS. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE IMPEDED BY STRONG SHEAR AND WILL ENCOUNTER TERRAIN FRICTIONAL EFFECTS ONCE LANDFALL OCCURS AND BEGIN THE DISSIPATION BY 72H. AFTER 72H, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT COMES UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOWER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. BETWEEN 72 AN 96H THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND ENCOUNTER A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS, ALONG WITH CONVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND CONTINUE DISSIPATING, FULLLY DISSIPATED OVER WATER BY 96H.
01W(DUJUAN). NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS DECREASING IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH 510KM SPREAD AT 36H, INCREASING TO 780KM AT 72H. UKMET REMAINS A FAR RIGHT OUTLIER AND ECMWF IS FAR LEFT OF MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE LENDS TO OVERALL POOR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK FROM 36H THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED IN DISPARITY AFTER 72H, WITH THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI- MODEL CONSENSUS AND CLOSELY TRACKS WITH THE GFS SOLUTION, WITH POOR CONFIDENCE.
01W(DUJUAN). 20/00UTC.
01W(DUJUAN). 20/0230UTC. FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION.
