01W(DUJUAN) 35knots, attacked by strong wind shear, forecast to make landfall near 36/48hours, 20/03utc update


01W(DUJUAN). 20/02UTC. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A LARGE CONVECTIVE MASS SHEARED NORTHWEST AWAY FROM A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DUE TO STRONG LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). CLICK TO ANIMATE IF NEEDED.


01W(DUJUAN). 20/02UTC. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE  IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A LARGE CONVECTIVE MASS SHEARED NORTHWEST AWAY  FROM A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DUE TO  STRONG LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
01W(DUJUAN). 20/02UTC. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A LARGE CONVECTIVE MASS SHEARED NORTHWEST AWAY FROM A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DUE TO STRONG LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
2021 FEB 20 03UTC #WESTERNNORTHPACIFIC 
TS #01W #DUJUAN 
WARNING 12
As of 00:00 UTC Feb 20, 2021:
Location: 6.4°N 131.3°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 mb
TROPICAL STORM 01W (DUJUAN), LOCATED AT 20/00UTC APPROXIMATELY 635 KM EAST OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 09KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
 
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Patrick Hoareau
 Météo974
M974World
Cyclone Class 4
 Cheers,PH.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

01W(DUJUAN). WARNING 12 ISSUED AT 20/03UTC.ENVIRONMENTAL AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS SHOWS POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE  TEMPERATURE (SST); HOWEVER, THE STRONG (25-30 KT) EASTERLY WIND SHEAR HAS  ERODED THE SYSTEM STRUCTURE AND DECOUPLED THE UPPER AND LOWER-LEVEL  PORTIONS OF THE SYSTEM. TS 01W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST  PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO  THE NORTHEAST. TS 01W IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD, AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE(STR) CENTERED TO  THE EAST-NORTHEAST BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE EAST. TS DUJUAN WILL  MOVE ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE STR WITH A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST  ORIENTATION. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEAST OF MINDANAO  AND MAKE LANDFALL NEAR LEYTE BETWEEN 36 AND 48H, THEN CONTINUE TO  TRACK OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINE ISLANDS. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO  BE IMPEDED BY STRONG SHEAR AND WILL ENCOUNTER TERRAIN FRICTIONAL  EFFECTS ONCE LANDFALL OCCURS AND BEGIN THE DISSIPATION BY 72H.  AFTER 72H, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT  COMES UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOWER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY  FLOW. BETWEEN 72 AN 96H THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTH  CHINA SEA AND ENCOUNTER A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS, ALONG WITH  CONVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND CONTINUE DISSIPATING, FULLLY  DISSIPATED OVER WATER BY 96H.
01W(DUJUAN). WARNING 12 ISSUED AT 20/03UTC.ENVIRONMENTAL AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS SHOWS POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST); HOWEVER, THE STRONG (25-30 KT) EASTERLY WIND SHEAR HAS ERODED THE SYSTEM STRUCTURE AND DECOUPLED THE UPPER AND LOWER-LEVEL PORTIONS OF THE SYSTEM. TS 01W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. TS 01W IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD, AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE(STR) CENTERED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE EAST. TS DUJUAN WILL MOVE ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE STR WITH A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEAST OF MINDANAO AND MAKE LANDFALL NEAR LEYTE BETWEEN 36 AND 48H, THEN CONTINUE TO TRACK OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINE ISLANDS. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE IMPEDED BY STRONG SHEAR AND WILL ENCOUNTER TERRAIN FRICTIONAL EFFECTS ONCE LANDFALL OCCURS AND BEGIN THE DISSIPATION BY 72H. AFTER 72H, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT COMES UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOWER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. BETWEEN 72 AN 96H THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND ENCOUNTER A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS, ALONG WITH CONVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND CONTINUE DISSIPATING, FULLLY DISSIPATED OVER WATER BY 96H.

01W(DUJUAN). NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS DECREASING IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH  510KM SPREAD AT 36H, INCREASING TO 780KM AT 72H. UKMET REMAINS  A FAR RIGHT OUTLIER AND ECMWF IS FAR LEFT OF MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS  SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE LENDS TO OVERALL POOR CONFIDENCE IN THE  JTWC FORECAST TRACK FROM 36H THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED IN DISPARITY AFTER 72H, WITH THE CONSENSUS  MEMBERS. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI- MODEL CONSENSUS AND CLOSELY TRACKS WITH THE GFS SOLUTION, WITH POOR  CONFIDENCE.
01W(DUJUAN). NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS DECREASING IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH 510KM SPREAD AT 36H, INCREASING TO 780KM AT 72H. UKMET REMAINS A FAR RIGHT OUTLIER AND ECMWF IS FAR LEFT OF MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE LENDS TO OVERALL POOR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK FROM 36H THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED IN DISPARITY AFTER 72H, WITH THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI- MODEL CONSENSUS AND CLOSELY TRACKS WITH THE GFS SOLUTION, WITH POOR CONFIDENCE.

01W(DUJUAN). 20/00UTC.
01W(DUJUAN). 20/00UTC.


01W(DUJUAN). 20/0230UTC. FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION.
01W(DUJUAN). 20/0230UTC. FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Samedi 20 Février 2021 à 07:35