Western NPacific : Invest 91W on the map/South Indian: weakened 19S(FARAJI) fighting wind shear and drier air, 13/09utc updates


13/06UTC. INVEST 91W IS NOW ON THE MAP WITH LOW CHANCES FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24HOURS. JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON 19S(FARAJI). 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED FOR 19S AND 93S( MOZ CHANNEL).


13/06UTC. INVEST 91W IS NOW ON THE MAP WITH AND IS LOW FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS. JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON 19S. 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED FOR 19S AND 93S( MOZ CHANNEL).
13/06UTC. INVEST 91W IS NOW ON THE MAP WITH AND IS LOW FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS. JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON 19S. 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED FOR 19S AND 93S( MOZ CHANNEL).
2021 FEB 13 0830UTC #WESTERNNORTHPACIFIC  #SOUTHERNHEMISPHERE
INVEST #91W  #WESTERNNORTHPACIFIC
UPDATE
As of 06:00 UTC Feb 13, 2021:
Location: 5.5°N 141.7°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 mb
LOCATED AT 13/06UTC APPROXIMATELY 810 KM  EAST SOUTH-EAST OF PALAU.
CURRENT POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS: LOW.
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TC #19S #FARAJI  #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
WARNING 17
As of 06:00 UTC Feb 13, 2021:
Location: 19.4°S 80.1°E
Maximum Winds: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Gusts: 55 kt (100km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 998 mb
WEAKENING
19S(FARAJI) LOCATED AT 13/06UTC APPROXIMATELY 2350 KM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
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INVEST #93S  #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN #MOZAMBIQUECHANNEL
UPDATE
As of 06:00 UTC Feb 13, 2021:
Location: 22.5°S 35.1°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1001 mb
LOCATED AT 13/06UTC APPROXIMATELY 150 KM  NORTH OF MAXIXE/MOZAMBIQUE.
SUBTROPICAL
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS

Patrick Hoareau
 Météo974
M974World
Cyclone Class 4
 Cheers,PH.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

INVEST 91W. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES INVEST  91W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT  WITH GOOD WESTWARD AND NORTHWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL  WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL  MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 91W WILL TRACK WESTWARD WITH  POSSIBLE CONSOLIDATION OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
INVEST 91W. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES INVEST 91W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD WESTWARD AND NORTHWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 91W WILL TRACK WESTWARD WITH POSSIBLE CONSOLIDATION OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

19S(FARAJI). WARNING 17 ISSUED AT 13/09UTC. 19S IS TRACKING WEST ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A  LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE SOUTH. AS  THE STR BUILDS IN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TC 19S IS FORECAST TO TAKE  ON A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE  FORECAST PERIOD. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY  UNFAVORABLE, WITH MODERATE (15-20 KTS) NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR AND  CONVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW FROM A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE  SOUTHWEST IMPINGING THE SECONDARY CIRCULATION. AS THE SYSTEM  CONTINUES MOVING WEST IT WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR IN  THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS, WHICH COMBINED WITH THE PERSISTENT CONVERGENT  NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, WILL LEAD TO STEADY WEAKENING WITH INTENSITY FORECAST TO FALL BELOW 35KNOTS BY 72HOURS.
19S(FARAJI). WARNING 17 ISSUED AT 13/09UTC. 19S IS TRACKING WEST ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE SOUTH. AS THE STR BUILDS IN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TC 19S IS FORECAST TO TAKE ON A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE, WITH MODERATE (15-20 KTS) NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR AND CONVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW FROM A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST IMPINGING THE SECONDARY CIRCULATION. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING WEST IT WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS, WHICH COMBINED WITH THE PERSISTENT CONVERGENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, WILL LEAD TO STEADY WEAKENING WITH INTENSITY FORECAST TO FALL BELOW 35KNOTS BY 72HOURS.

19S(FARAJI). NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN OVERALL  GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SPREAD TO 325KM AT 72H,  LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
19S(FARAJI). NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SPREAD TO 325KM AT 72H, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.

19S(FARAJI). 13/0915UTC. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE  IMAGERY (MSI) CONTINUES TO SHOW THE EFFECTS OF PERSISTENT  NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR, WHICH IS DISPLACING FLARING CONVECTION TO THE  SOUTHEAST OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
19S(FARAJI). 13/0915UTC. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) CONTINUES TO SHOW THE EFFECTS OF PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR, WHICH IS DISPLACING FLARING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).

 

19S(FARAJI). 13/0341UTC. AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATED A WELL- DEFINED LOW LEVEL CORE CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS  AND LENT HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION.
19S(FARAJI). 13/0341UTC. AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATED A WELL- DEFINED LOW LEVEL CORE CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS AND LENT HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION.

INVEST 93S. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM OVER-LAND.
INVEST 93S. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM OVER-LAND.

13/00UTC
13/00UTC
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Samedi 13 Février 2021 à 13:30