SOUTH INDIAN: Cyclone 21S(GUAMBE) : US/Category 1, possible rapid intensification period next 12/24hours, 19/09utc update


ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) AND MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICT A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING
AND INTENSIFYING SYSTEM WITH A SMALL, COMPACT CORE OF DEEP CONVECTION AND A DISORGANIZED, ELONGATED AND CLOUD FILLED EYE FEATURE. CLICK ON THE IMAGERY TO ANIMATE.


21S(GUAMBE). 19/08UTC. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) AND MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICT A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING  AND INTENSIFYING SYSTEM WITH A SMALL, COMPACT CORE OF DEEP  CONVECTION AND A DISORGANIZED, ELONGATED AND CLOUD FILLED EYE FEATURE. CLICK ON THE IMAGERY TO ANIMATE.
21S(GUAMBE). 19/08UTC. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) AND MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICT A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING AND INTENSIFYING SYSTEM WITH A SMALL, COMPACT CORE OF DEEP CONVECTION AND A DISORGANIZED, ELONGATED AND CLOUD FILLED EYE FEATURE. CLICK ON THE IMAGERY TO ANIMATE.
2021 FEB 19 09UTC #SOUTHERNHEMISPHERE
TC #21S #GUAMBE  #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN #MOZAMBIQUECHANNEL
WARNING 4
As of 06:00 UTC Feb 19, 2021:
Location: 24.6°S 36.8°E
Maximum Winds: 70 kt (130km/h)
Gusts: 85 kt ( 160km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 976 mb
CATEGORY US: 1
INTENSIFYING
21S (GUAMBE), LOCATED AT 19/06UTC APPROXIMATELY 170 KM SOUTHEAST OF MAXIXE/MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
----------------------------------------
Patrick Hoareau
 Météo974
M974World
Cyclone Class 4
 Cheers,PH.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

21S(GUAMBE). WARNING 4 ISSUED AT 19/09UTC.ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION WITH  LOW (5-10 KTS) WIND SHEAR, WARM (28-29C) SEAS AND ROBUST EQUATORWARD AND  QUICKLY IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW WHICH IS BEGINNING TO TAP INTO  MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH. TC 21S IS TRACKING  SOUTWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL  RIDGE CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS TC 21S  WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWEST BEFORE ROUNDING THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR  24H AND ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE  FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING TO  A PEAK OF 95 KNOTS/CATEGORY 2 BY 36H UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL  CONDITIONS. TC 21S WILL START EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT)  SHORTLY AFTER 48H AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE  WESTERLIES. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE TRANSITION TO A  HURRICANE FORCE EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW BY 72H AS IT RAPIDLY  TRANSLATES SOUTHEASTWARD, BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE  AND TAKES ON FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS.
21S(GUAMBE). WARNING 4 ISSUED AT 19/09UTC.ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION WITH LOW (5-10 KTS) WIND SHEAR, WARM (28-29C) SEAS AND ROBUST EQUATORWARD AND QUICKLY IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW WHICH IS BEGINNING TO TAP INTO MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH. TC 21S IS TRACKING SOUTWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS TC 21S WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWEST BEFORE ROUNDING THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR 24H AND ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING TO A PEAK OF 95 KNOTS/CATEGORY 2 BY 36H UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. TC 21S WILL START EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) SHORTLY AFTER 48H AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE TRANSITION TO A HURRICANE FORCE EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW BY 72H AS IT RAPIDLY TRANSLATES SOUTHEASTWARD, BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND TAKES ON FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS.

 

21S(GUAMBE). NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48H, WITH INCREASING ALONG-TRACK  UNCERTAINTY THEREAFTER. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES CLOSE TO ECMWF  AND NAVGEM SOLUTIONS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
21S(GUAMBE). NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48H, WITH INCREASING ALONG-TRACK UNCERTAINTY THEREAFTER. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES CLOSE TO ECMWF AND NAVGEM SOLUTIONS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

 

21S(GUAMBE). 19/0333UTC. SMAP READ 48KNOT WINDS( 10 MINUTES).
21S(GUAMBE). 19/0333UTC. SMAP READ 48KNOT WINDS( 10 MINUTES).

21S(GUAMBE). 21/0830UTC. CYCLONE SHOWING SIGNS OF POSSIBLE RAPID INTENSIFICATION NEXT 12HOURS. Eumetsat. Enhanced by Patrick Hoareau.
21S(GUAMBE). 21/0830UTC. CYCLONE SHOWING SIGNS OF POSSIBLE RAPID INTENSIFICATION NEXT 12HOURS. Eumetsat. Enhanced by Patrick Hoareau.

19/06UTC. JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON 01W AND 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON 21S. 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED FOR BOTH SYSTEMS.
19/06UTC. JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON 01W AND 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON 21S. 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED FOR BOTH SYSTEMS.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Vendredi 19 Février 2021 à 13:35