01W(DUJUAN) 30knots: forecast landfall over Samar shortly after 24h/ MOZ Channel: 21S(GUAMBE) still CAT1, 21/03utc updates



21/00UTC. JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON 01W(DUJUAN) AND 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON 21S(GUAMBE). 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED FOR BOTH SYSTEMS.
21/00UTC. JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON 01W(DUJUAN) AND 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON 21S(GUAMBE). 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED FOR BOTH SYSTEMS.
2021 FEB 21 0255UTC #WESTERNNORTHPACIFIC 
TD #01W #DUJUAN 
WARNING 16
As of 00:00 UTC Feb 21, 2021:
Location: 8.1°N 130.2°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt ( 55km/h)
Gusts: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 mb
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (DUJUAN), LOCATED AT 21/03UTC APPROXIMATELY 1235 KM SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
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#SOUTHERNHEMISPHERE
TC #21S #GUAMBE  #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN #MOZAMBIQUECHANNEL
WARNING 8
As of 00:00 UTC Feb 21, 2021:
Location: 28.6°S 37.6°E
Maximum Winds: 65 kt (120km/h)
Gusts: 80 kt ( 150km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 976 mb
CATEGORY US: 1
TC 21S (GUAMBE), LOCATED AT 21/00UTC APPROXIMATELY 755 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 26 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
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Patrick Hoareau
 Météo974
M974World
Cyclone Class 4
 Cheers,PH.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

01W(DUJUAN). WARNING 16 ISSUED AT 21/03UTC.ANALYSIS INDICATES WARM (29- 30C) ALONG-TRACK SST AND ROBUST WEST AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. A  SLIGHT DECREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS ENHANCED THE STRUCTURE OF CONVECTION NEAR  THE LOW LEVEL CENTER DUE TO THE STORM MOTION MOVING MORE IN-PHASE WITH THE MID  AND UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW. THE WARM MOIST AIR AHEAD OF THE TD IS  CONTINUALLY OVERRUNNING THE COLDER NORTHEASTERLY WIND IN THE  PHILIPPINE SEA INCREASING THE INSTABILITY AND CONVECTION. THE  CYCLONE CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE  (STR) STEERS IT TOWARDS THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS.    TD 01W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STEERING  STR TO THE NORTHEAST BUILDS, THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE INITIAL LANDFALL  OVER SAMAR, PHILIPPINES, JUST AFTER 24H AND THEN ENTER THE  SIBUYAN SEA AND ENCOUNTER COOLER 26-27C SSTS. AFTER 24H, HIGH  RELATIVE WIND SHEAR COMBINED WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF THE MULTIPLE  ISLANDS WILL ERODE THE TD TO DISSIPATION BY 48H, POSSIBLY SOONER.
01W(DUJUAN). WARNING 16 ISSUED AT 21/03UTC.ANALYSIS INDICATES WARM (29- 30C) ALONG-TRACK SST AND ROBUST WEST AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS ENHANCED THE STRUCTURE OF CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CENTER DUE TO THE STORM MOTION MOVING MORE IN-PHASE WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW. THE WARM MOIST AIR AHEAD OF THE TD IS CONTINUALLY OVERRUNNING THE COLDER NORTHEASTERLY WIND IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA INCREASING THE INSTABILITY AND CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) STEERS IT TOWARDS THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS. TD 01W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STEERING STR TO THE NORTHEAST BUILDS, THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE INITIAL LANDFALL OVER SAMAR, PHILIPPINES, JUST AFTER 24H AND THEN ENTER THE SIBUYAN SEA AND ENCOUNTER COOLER 26-27C SSTS. AFTER 24H, HIGH RELATIVE WIND SHEAR COMBINED WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF THE MULTIPLE ISLANDS WILL ERODE THE TD TO DISSIPATION BY 48H, POSSIBLY SOONER.


01W(DUJUAN). NUMERICAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY TO 555KM+ BY 48H. THIS  INDICATES UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS TRACKING A WEAK CIRCULATION, LENDING  OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
01W(DUJUAN). NUMERICAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY TO 555KM+ BY 48H. THIS INDICATES UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS TRACKING A WEAK CIRCULATION, LENDING OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.

01W(DUJUAN).  INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH  HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED UPON THE MSI LOOP AND A 21/0114UTC ASCAT METOP-B  IMAGE.
01W(DUJUAN). INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED UPON THE MSI LOOP AND A 21/0114UTC ASCAT METOP-B IMAGE.

21S(GUMABE). WARNING 8 ISSUED AT 21/03UTC.ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT  WITH LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD POLEWARD  OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM (28-29C) SST. GUAMBE HAS ROUNDED THE RIDGE  AXIS AND IS TRACKING ALONG THE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD PERIPHERY OF THE  DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. TC 21S  WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT ACCELERATES AND TRACKS  SOUTHEASTWARD ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE STR. INITIAL EXPOSURE  TO THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL SLIGHTLY IMPROVE  POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND TEMPORARILY INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM TO A PEAK OF  70 KNOTS/CAT1 BY 24H. AFTERWARD, INCREASING WIND SHEAR AND COOLING SEAS WILL  GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 55KNOTS BY 48H. CONCURRENTLY, BY  36H, TC GUAMBE WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT ENTERS  THE BAROCLINIC ZONE, AND BECOME A STORM-FORCE COLD-CORE LOW BY TAU  48H.
21S(GUMABE). WARNING 8 ISSUED AT 21/03UTC.ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM (28-29C) SST. GUAMBE HAS ROUNDED THE RIDGE AXIS AND IS TRACKING ALONG THE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. TC 21S WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT ACCELERATES AND TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE STR. INITIAL EXPOSURE TO THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL SLIGHTLY IMPROVE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND TEMPORARILY INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM TO A PEAK OF 70 KNOTS/CAT1 BY 24H. AFTERWARD, INCREASING WIND SHEAR AND COOLING SEAS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 55KNOTS BY 48H. CONCURRENTLY, BY 36H, TC GUAMBE WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT ENTERS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE, AND BECOME A STORM-FORCE COLD-CORE LOW BY TAU 48H.

21S(GUAMBE). NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH  CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
21S(GUAMBE). NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.

21S(GUMABE). 21/0215UTC. MICROWAVE REVEALS THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED.
21S(GUMABE). 21/0215UTC. MICROWAVE REVEALS THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED.

21S(GUMABE). 20/2210UTC. NOAA-20.
21S(GUMABE). 20/2210UTC. NOAA-20.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Dimanche 21 Février 2021 à 07:45