Invest 93S likely to develop within 24h over the MOZ Channel, Invest 91W likely to develop within 48h, 16/09utc updates


JTWC HAS UP-GRADED INVEST 93S TO HIGH. INVEST 91W IS STILL MEDIUM. 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED FOR INVEST 93S. THEY WERE DISCONTINUED FOR THE REMNANTS OF 19S(FARAJI) AT 15/2045UTC. 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE NOW ISSUED FOR INVEST 91W FROM 16/1150UTC.


JTWC HAS UP-GRADED INVEST 93S TO HIGH. INVEST 91W IS STILL MEDIUM. 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED FOR INVEST 93S. THEY WERE DISCONTINUED FOR THE REMNANTS OF 19S(FARAJI) AT 15/2045UTC.3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE NOW ISSUED FOR INVEST 91W FROM 16/1150UTC.
JTWC HAS UP-GRADED INVEST 93S TO HIGH. INVEST 91W IS STILL MEDIUM. 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED FOR INVEST 93S. THEY WERE DISCONTINUED FOR THE REMNANTS OF 19S(FARAJI) AT 15/2045UTC.3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE NOW ISSUED FOR INVEST 91W FROM 16/1150UTC.
2021 FEB 16 07UTC #WESTERNNORTHPACIFIC  #SOUTHERNHEMISPHERE
INVEST #91W  #WESTERNNORTHPACIFIC
UPDATE
As of 06:00 UTC Feb 16, 2021:
Location: 7.3°N 135.6°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 mb
LOCATED AT 16/06UTC APPROXIMATELY 110 KM  EAST OF PALAU.
CURRENT POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS: MEDIUM.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
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INVEST #93S  #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN #MOZAMBIQUECHANNEL
TCFA/UPDATE
As of 06:00 UTC Feb 16, 2021:
Location: 21.3°S 36.0°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Gusts: 35 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 mb
LOCATED AT 16/06UTC APPROXIMATELY 85  KM  EAST-NORTHEAST OF INHASSORO/MOZAMBIQUE.
THE CENTER IS NOW OVER SEA.
CURRENT POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS: UP-GRADED TO HIGH.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
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REMNANTS  #19S #FARAJI  #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
UPDATE
As of 06:00 UTC Feb 16, 2021:
Location: 18.2°S 66.5°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Gusts: 35 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1008mb
REMNANTS OF 19S(FARAJI) LOCATED AT 16/06UTC APPROXIMATELY 360 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF RODRIGUES ISLAND.
 
Patrick Hoareau
 Météo974
M974World
Cyclone Class 4
 Cheers,PH.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

INVEST 91W. 16/0630UTC.SATELLITE IMAGERY AND  A 160405Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS REVEALS CONSOLIDATING BANDING  WITH FLARING CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING INTO A LOW  LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
INVEST 91W. 16/0630UTC.SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 160405Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS REVEALS CONSOLIDATING BANDING WITH FLARING CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).

INVEST 91W. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES  INVEST 91W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL  DEVELOPMENT WITH POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE (10-20KT)  VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 91W WILL TRACK WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AND STRENGTHEN TO WARNING STATUS (25KNOTS) WITHIN 48 HOURS.
INVEST 91W. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES INVEST 91W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE (10-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 91W WILL TRACK WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AND STRENGTHEN TO WARNING STATUS (25KNOTS) WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INVEST 93S. 16/07UTC. DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD THE LOW LEVEL  CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) GRADUALLY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OUT TO SEA. Eumetsat. PH.
INVEST 93S. 16/07UTC. DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) GRADUALLY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OUT TO SEA. Eumetsat. PH.

INVEST 93S. 93S IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW  (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND NEAR RADIAL UPPER LEVEL  OUTFLOW BEING OFFSET BY CONTINUED LAND INTERACTION; HOWEVER, ONCE  THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER OPEN WATER, IT WILL HAVE ACCESS TO WARM (29 TO  30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD  AGREEMENT THAT 93S WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD AS IT MOVES  OVER WATER AND BEGINS TO INTENSIFY, BEFORE IT MAKES A SOUTHWARD  TURN. 93S IS EXPECTED TO REACH WARNING THRESHOLD(35KNOTS) WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INVEST 93S. 93S IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND NEAR RADIAL UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW BEING OFFSET BY CONTINUED LAND INTERACTION; HOWEVER, ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER OPEN WATER, IT WILL HAVE ACCESS TO WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93S WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD AS IT MOVES OVER WATER AND BEGINS TO INTENSIFY, BEFORE IT MAKES A SOUTHWARD TURN. 93S IS EXPECTED TO REACH WARNING THRESHOLD(35KNOTS) WITHIN 36 HOURS.

REMNANTS OF 19S(FARAJI). MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF FLARING CONVECTION.Eumetsat. PH.
REMNANTS OF 19S(FARAJI). MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF FLARING CONVECTION.Eumetsat. PH.

REMNANTS OF 19S(FARAJI). GLOBAL MODELS NOT DEPICTING RE-INTENSIFICATION.
REMNANTS OF 19S(FARAJI). GLOBAL MODELS NOT DEPICTING RE-INTENSIFICATION.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mardi 16 Février 2021 à 11:55