Southern Hemisphere: 20P becoming extratropical: Final Warning. 19S(FARAJI) still a US/Category 2 cyclone. 10/15utc updates


10/15UTC. JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON 19S(FARAJI). WARNING 3 /FINAL WAS ISSUED FOR 20P AS THE SYSTEM IS COMPLETING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION .3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE PROVIDED FOR BOTH 19S AND 20P.


10/15UTC. JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON 19S(FARAJI). WARNING 3 /FINAL WAS ISSUED FOR 20P AS THE SYSTEM IS COMPLETING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION .3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE PROVIDED FOR BOTH 19S AND 20P.
10/15UTC. JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON 19S(FARAJI). WARNING 3 /FINAL WAS ISSUED FOR 20P AS THE SYSTEM IS COMPLETING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION .3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE PROVIDED FOR BOTH 19S AND 20P.
2021 FEB 10 1435UTC #SOUTHERNHEMISPHERE
TC #19S #FARAJI  #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
UPDATE
As of 12:00 UTC Feb 10, 2021:
Location: 15.5°S 85.3°E
Maximum Winds: 90 kt ( 170km/h)
Gusts: 110 kt ( 205km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 964 mb
CATEGORY US: 2
WEAKENING
TC 19S(FARAJI) LOCATED AT 10/12UTC APPROXIMATELY 1670KM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06KM/H OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TC #20P #SOUTHPACIFICOCEAN
WARNING 3/FINAL
As of 12:00 UTC Feb 10, 2021:
Location: 28.4°S 176.7°W
Maximum Winds: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Gusts: 50 kt ( 95km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 992 mb
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
20P(TWENTY) LOCATED AT 10/12UTC APPROXIMATELY 150KM NORTHEAST OF RAOUL ISLAND
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
 Météo974
M974World
Cyclone Class 4
 Cheers,PH.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

20P(TWENTY). WARNING 3(FINAL) ISSED AT 10/15UTC.THE SYSTEM IS RAPIDLY MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE  TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A STRONG MID-LATITUDE  UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST. TC 20P IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY  EXTRATROPICAL AS IT MOVES OVER COOL SEAS (BELOW 24C).
20P(TWENTY). WARNING 3(FINAL) ISSED AT 10/15UTC.THE SYSTEM IS RAPIDLY MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A STRONG MID-LATITUDE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST. TC 20P IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY EXTRATROPICAL AS IT MOVES OVER COOL SEAS (BELOW 24C).
JMV FILE
2021020618 133S1774E  15
2021020700 136S1775E  15
2021020706 139S1779E  15
2021020712 142S1783E  15
2021020718 147S1787E  15
2021020800 151S1791E  20
2021020806 159S1795E  20
2021020812 173S1799E  25
2021020818 185S1800W  30
2021020900 193S1798W  30
2021020906 201S1793W  30
2021020912 218S1786W  30
2021020918 235S1779W  35
2021021000 251S1777W  45
2021021006 267S1774W  40
2021021012 284S1767W  40
2021021018 302S1763W  35
2021021100 323S1758W  35
NNNN

20P(TWENTY). NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THERE IS HIGH  CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
20P(TWENTY). NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.


20P(TWENTY). 10/1420UTC. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE  IMAGERY DEPICTS MODERATE CONVECTION FLARING TO THE SOUTH OF THE  PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
20P(TWENTY). 10/1420UTC. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS MODERATE CONVECTION FLARING TO THE SOUTH OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.

20P(TWENTY). 10/1007UTC. ASCAT-C SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED AN ELONGATED LLCC, WITH  PATCHES OF 40 KNOT WINDS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER, LENDING  HIGH CONFIDENCE TO BOTH THE INITIAL POSITION AND INITIAL INTENSITY.
20P(TWENTY). 10/1007UTC. ASCAT-C SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED AN ELONGATED LLCC, WITH PATCHES OF 40 KNOT WINDS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO BOTH THE INITIAL POSITION AND INITIAL INTENSITY.

20P IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY  EXTRATROPICAL AS IT MOVES OVER COOL WATERS (BELOW 24C) WITH VERY LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT.
20P IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY EXTRATROPICAL AS IT MOVES OVER COOL WATERS (BELOW 24C) WITH VERY LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT.

20P(TWENTY). 10/0618UTC. SMAP READ 56KNOTS WINDS(10MINUTES) WELL ABOVE JTWC INTENSITY ESTIMATE.
20P(TWENTY). 10/0618UTC. SMAP READ 56KNOTS WINDS(10MINUTES) WELL ABOVE JTWC INTENSITY ESTIMATE.


19S(FARAJI). WARNING 11 ISSUED AT 10/09UTC. INTENSITY FORECAST TO FALL BELOW 65KNOTS(CATEGORY 1) BY 13/06UTC.
19S(FARAJI). WARNING 11 ISSUED AT 10/09UTC. INTENSITY FORECAST TO FALL BELOW 65KNOTS(CATEGORY 1) BY 13/06UTC.

 

19S(FARAJI). NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE  AGREES ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO BUT DEPICTS A HIGH DEGREE OF  UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE TURN TOWARDS THE WEST,  WITH THE ECMWF INDICATING A VERY TIGHT TURN AND THE NAVGEM  FORECASTING A MUCH SHALLOWER TURN. THE REMAINDER OF THE CONSENSUS  MEMBERS FOR A RELATIVELY TIGHT ENVELOPE WHICH SLIGHTLY FAVORS THE  SHARPER TURN SCENARIO, BUT WITH A SPREAD OF 815KM BETWEEN OUTLIERS  AT 120H.  THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED JUST WEST AND NORTH  OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS MEAN WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE  HIGH UNCERTAINTY DEPICTED IN THE GUIDANCE.
19S(FARAJI). NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO BUT DEPICTS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE TURN TOWARDS THE WEST, WITH THE ECMWF INDICATING A VERY TIGHT TURN AND THE NAVGEM FORECASTING A MUCH SHALLOWER TURN. THE REMAINDER OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS FOR A RELATIVELY TIGHT ENVELOPE WHICH SLIGHTLY FAVORS THE SHARPER TURN SCENARIO, BUT WITH A SPREAD OF 815KM BETWEEN OUTLIERS AT 120H. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED JUST WEST AND NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS MEAN WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY DEPICTED IN THE GUIDANCE.


19S(FARAJI). 10/1215UTC. MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE STILL DEPICTED.
19S(FARAJI). 10/1215UTC. MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE STILL DEPICTED.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mercredi 10 Février 2021 à 19:30