Menu

19S(FARAJI): Final Warning, Peak Intensity was 140knots/Cat 5. Invest 91W East of Palau, Invest 93S over Mozambique, 14/09utc updates


14/06UTC. JTWC HAS ISSUED WARNING 19/FINAL ON 19S(FARAJI). 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED FOR 19S AND INVEST 93S (MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL).


14/06UTC. JTWC HAS ISSUED WARNING 19/FINAL ON 19S(FARAJI). 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED FOR 19S AND INVEST 93S (MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL).
14/06UTC. JTWC HAS ISSUED WARNING 19/FINAL ON 19S(FARAJI). 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED FOR 19S AND INVEST 93S (MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL).
2021 FEB 14 0910UTC #WESTERNNORTHPACIFIC  #SOUTHERNHEMISPHERE
INVEST #91W  #WESTERNNORTHPACIFIC
UPDATE
As of 06:00 UTC Feb 14, 2021:
Location: 6.2°N 139.3°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 mb
LOCATED AT 14/06UTC APPROXIMATELY 535 KM  EAST SOUTH-EAST OF PALAU.
CURRENT POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS: LOW.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TC #19S #FARAJI  #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
WARNING 19/ FINAL
As of 06:00 UTC Feb 14, 2021:
Location: 20.4°S 77.6°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt ( 55km/h)
Gusts: 40 kt (75km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007mb
WEAKENING
19S(FARAJI) LOCATED AT 14/06UTC APPROXIMATELY 1860 KM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INVEST #93S  #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN #MOZAMBIQUECHANNEL
UPDATE
As of 06:00 UTC Feb 14, 2021:
Location: 23.3°S 32.3°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 mb
LOCATED AT 14/06UTC APPROXIMATELY 315 KM  WEST NORTH-WEST OF MAXIXE/MOZAMBIQUE.
OVER-LAND
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS

Patrick Hoareau
 Météo974
M974World
Cyclone Class 4
 Cheers,PH.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

INVEST 91W. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES INVEST 91W IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH FAIR NORTHWESTWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 91W WILL TRACK WESTWARD WITH POSSIBLE CONSOLIDATION OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
INVEST 91W. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES INVEST 91W IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH FAIR NORTHWESTWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 91W WILL TRACK WESTWARD WITH POSSIBLE CONSOLIDATION OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

19S(FARAJI). WARNING 19/FINAL. CURRENT INTENSITY IS NOW BELOW WARNING CRITERIA DUE TO THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, NORTHWESTERLY CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT, AND PERSISTENT MODERATE (15-20 KTS) WIND SHEAR, THE REMNANTS OF TC 19S WILL CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
19S(FARAJI). WARNING 19/FINAL. CURRENT INTENSITY IS NOW BELOW WARNING CRITERIA DUE TO THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, NORTHWESTERLY CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT, AND PERSISTENT MODERATE (15-20 KTS) WIND SHEAR, THE REMNANTS OF TC 19S WILL CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
JMV FILE
1921020400 105S 801E  20
1921020406 108S 808E  20
1921020412 112S 813E  20
1921020418 116S 814E  25
1921020500 121S 814E  35
1921020506 127S 812E  40
1921020512 131S 807E  45
1921020518 133S 804E  50
1921020518 133S 804E  50
1921020600 138S 801E  50
1921020606 140S 798E  60
1921020612 143S 798E  70
1921020618 147S 796E  75
1921020700 149S 796E 100
1921020706 149S 798E 115
1921020712 148S 799E 110
1921020718 146S 802E 115
1921020800 143S 809E 110
1921020806 142S 815E 120
1921020812 142S 820E 135
1921020818 142S 825E 140
1921020900 141S 830E 135
1921020906 140S 835E 130
1921020912 143S 843E 120
1921020918 147S 846E 110
1921021000 150S 848E  95
1921021006 152S 850E  95
1921021012 155S 853E  90
1921021018 158S 853E  90
1921021100 161S 850E  95
1921021106 164S 846E  95
1921021112 166S 843E  90
1921021118 174S 837E  80
1921021200 180S 832E  80
1921021206 183S 823E  70
1921021212 185S 815E  60
1921021218 188S 811E  50
1921021300 191S 807E  45
1921021306 194S 803E  45
1921021312 196S 798E  40
1921021318 197S 793E  35
1921021400 201S 784E  35
1921021406 204S 776E  30
NNNN

19S(FARAJI). 14/0915UTC.ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION DISPLACED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO THE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. Eumetsat. Enhanced by PH.
19S(FARAJI). 14/0915UTC.ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION DISPLACED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO THE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. Eumetsat. Enhanced by PH.

19S(FARAJI). 19/0232UTC METOP-A SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED AN ISOLATED PATCH OF 30 KNOT WINDS IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT AND LESS THAN 20 KNOTS IN THE OTHER THREE QUADRANTS.
19S(FARAJI). 19/0232UTC METOP-A SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED AN ISOLATED PATCH OF 30 KNOT WINDS IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT AND LESS THAN 20 KNOTS IN THE OTHER THREE QUADRANTS.

INVEST 93S. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT ONCE AND IF THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER OPEN WATERS.
INVEST 93S. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT ONCE AND IF THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER OPEN WATERS.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Sunday, February 14th 2021 à 14:00
Les News
Liens utiles
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

TC 22P(PAUL)// Remnants of TC 21S(OLGA)// ECMWF 10 Day Storm Tracks// 1103utc

TC 21S(OLGA) SAR reveals still a bit stronger than expected// INVEST 97P// ECMWF 10 Day Storm Traccks// 0903utc

TC 21S(OLGA) peaked as a powerful CAT 4 US// ECMWF 10 Day Storm Tracks// 0803utc

TC 21S(OLGA) reaches CAT 3 US still intensifying// ECMWF 10 Day Storm Tracks// 0709utc

TC 21S(OLGA) intensifying and peaking within 24H may reach CAT 2 US// ECMWF 10 Day Storm Tracks, 0615utc