Category 4, 19S(FARAJI) annular -like cyclone has probably peaked, Invest 92P on the map, 08/09utc updates


19S(FARAJI). 08/09UTC LOOP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DENSE, AXISYMMETRIC CONVECTION CHARACTERISTIC OF AN ANNULAR TROPICAL CYCLONE ALONG WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING A WELL DEFINED 37 KM DIAMETER EYE. IF NECESSARY CLICK TO ANIMATE.


19S(FARAJI). 08/09UTC LOOP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DENSE, AXISYMMETRIC CONVECTION CHARACTERISTIC OF AN ANNULAR TROPICAL CYCLONE ALONG WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING A WELL DEFINED 37 KM DIAMETER EYE. IF NECESSARY CLICK TO ANIMATE.
19S(FARAJI). 08/09UTC LOOP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DENSE, AXISYMMETRIC CONVECTION CHARACTERISTIC OF AN ANNULAR TROPICAL CYCLONE ALONG WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING A WELL DEFINED 37 KM DIAMETER EYE. IF NECESSARY CLICK TO ANIMATE.


2021 FEB 08 0825UTC #SOUTHERNHEMISPHERE
TC #19S #FARAJI  #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
WARNING 7
As of 06:00 UTC Feb 08, 2021:
Location: 14.2°S 81.5°E
Maximum Winds: 120 kt ( 220km/h)
Gusts: 145 kt ( 270km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 938 mb
CATEGORY US: 4
PEAK INTENSITY LIKELY REACHED
19S(FARAJI) LOCATED AT 08/06UTC APPROXIMATELY 1260 KM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 11 KM/H
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

INVEST #92P #SOUTHPACIFICOCEAN
UPDATE
As of 00:00 UTC Feb 08, 2021:
Location: 15.6°S 179.9°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb
CURRENT POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS: LOW.

Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
 Météo974
M974World
Cyclone Class 4
 Cheers,PH.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

08/06UTC. JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON TC 19S(FARAJI). 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE PROVIDED FOR 19S. INVEST 92P REMAINS UNDER WATCH.
08/06UTC. JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON TC 19S(FARAJI). 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE PROVIDED FOR 19S. INVEST 92P REMAINS UNDER WATCH.

19S(FARAJI). WARNING 7 ISSUED AT 08/09UTC.TC FARAJI IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND THROUGH A  FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL  WIND SHEAR AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) THAT IS OFFSET BY REDUCED OUTFLOW ALOFT. THIS LOSS OF  PREVIOUSLY ROBUST POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, COUPLED WITH THE UPWELLING OF COOLER WATER DUE TO THE PREVIOUSLY QUASI- STATIONARY (QS) TRACK MOTION, WILL PREVENT TC FARAJI FROM FURTHER INTENSIFYING, HOWEVER THE ANNULAR CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WILL ALLOW FOR ONLY MODERATE WEAKENING IN THE NEAR TERM TO 100 KNOTS/CATEGORY 3 BY 48H. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING  INFLUENCE OF THE NER UNTIL 48H AT WHICH POINT A BUILDING  SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO  TAKE OVER AS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. AS THIS RIDGE  CONTINUES TO BUILD IT WILL BEGIN TO DRIVE TC FARAJI INITIALLY  SOUTHWARD FROM 48H TO 72H, SOUTHWESTWARD FROM 72H TO 96H AND THEN WESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. STEADY WEAKENING WILL OCCUR DURING THIS PERIOD AS A RESULT OF  CONTINUAL MODERATE WIND SHEAR AFTER 48H, COUPLED WITH CONVERGENT FLOW  ALOFT AND POSSIBLY ENTRAINMENT OF COOL DRY AIR FROM THE EAST. BY  120H, THESE CONDITIONS WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO 45 KNOTS.
19S(FARAJI). WARNING 7 ISSUED AT 08/09UTC.TC FARAJI IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND THROUGH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) THAT IS OFFSET BY REDUCED OUTFLOW ALOFT. THIS LOSS OF PREVIOUSLY ROBUST POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, COUPLED WITH THE UPWELLING OF COOLER WATER DUE TO THE PREVIOUSLY QUASI- STATIONARY (QS) TRACK MOTION, WILL PREVENT TC FARAJI FROM FURTHER INTENSIFYING, HOWEVER THE ANNULAR CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WILL ALLOW FOR ONLY MODERATE WEAKENING IN THE NEAR TERM TO 100 KNOTS/CATEGORY 3 BY 48H. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NER UNTIL 48H AT WHICH POINT A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO TAKE OVER AS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. AS THIS RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IT WILL BEGIN TO DRIVE TC FARAJI INITIALLY SOUTHWARD FROM 48H TO 72H, SOUTHWESTWARD FROM 72H TO 96H AND THEN WESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. STEADY WEAKENING WILL OCCUR DURING THIS PERIOD AS A RESULT OF CONTINUAL MODERATE WIND SHEAR AFTER 48H, COUPLED WITH CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT AND POSSIBLY ENTRAINMENT OF COOL DRY AIR FROM THE EAST. BY 120H, THESE CONDITIONS WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO 45 KNOTS.

19S(FARAJI). NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH MINIMAL SPREAD  IN ACROSS TRACK SOLUTIONS, HOWEVER THERE IS A FAIR DEGREE OF  UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE CHANGE IN TRACK DIRECTION FROM  EASTWARD TO SOUTHWARD. OVERALL, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE LENDS  FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED JUST TO  THE LEFT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET A SLIGHT RIGHT OF  TRACK BIAS FROM NAVGEM.
19S(FARAJI). NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH MINIMAL SPREAD IN ACROSS TRACK SOLUTIONS, HOWEVER THERE IS A FAIR DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE CHANGE IN TRACK DIRECTION FROM EASTWARD TO SOUTHWARD. OVERALL, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE LENDS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET A SLIGHT RIGHT OF TRACK BIAS FROM NAVGEM.

19S(FARAJI). 08/0804UTC. NOAA-20.
19S(FARAJI). 08/0804UTC. NOAA-20.


19S(FARAJI). 08/0733UTC. NOAA-20.
19S(FARAJI). 08/0733UTC. NOAA-20.

19S(FARAJI). 08/0804UTC. MICROWAVE STILL DEPICTS A VERY COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A STRONG CORE AND A WELL DEFINED EYE FEATURE. THE SIGNATURE IS ALMOST ANNULAR.
19S(FARAJI). 08/0804UTC. MICROWAVE STILL DEPICTS A VERY COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A STRONG CORE AND A WELL DEFINED EYE FEATURE. THE SIGNATURE IS ALMOST ANNULAR.

19S(FARAJI). 08/0545UTC. MODIS/TERRA.
19S(FARAJI). 08/0545UTC. MODIS/TERRA.

19S(FARAJI). LOSS OF  PREVIOUSLY ROBUST POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
19S(FARAJI). LOSS OF PREVIOUSLY ROBUST POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.


INVEST 92P. ENVIRONMENTAL  ANALYSIS SHOWS A MINIMALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (15- 20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY WARM (27-29C) SEA SURFACE  TEMPERATURES AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN  GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 92P WILL CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD  WITHIN THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE.
INVEST 92P. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MINIMALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (15- 20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY WARM (27-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 92P WILL CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD WITHIN THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE.


08/00UTC.
08/00UTC.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Lundi 8 Février 2021 à 14:00