Western North Pacific: 01W(91W) becomes the 1st numbered Tropical System for 2021. 17/02 09utc update


ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FORMATIVE RAIN BANDS WITH FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION
LOOSELY WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). CLICK TO ANIMATE IF NEEDED.


01W. 17/0730UTC. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE  IMAGERY SHOWS FORMATIVE RAIN BANDS WITH FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION  LOOSELY WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC).
01W. 17/0730UTC. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FORMATIVE RAIN BANDS WITH FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION LOOSELY WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC).
2021 FEB 17 0830UTC #WESTERNNORTHPACIFIC  #SOUTHERNHEMISPHERE
TD #01W  #WESTERNNORTHPACIFIC
WARNING 1
As of 06:00 UTC Feb 17, 2021:
Location: 6.6°N 133.1°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Gusts: 25 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 mb
TD 01W( ONE) LOCATED AT 17/06UTC APPROXIMATELY 160 KM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF KOROR, REPUBLIC OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 22
KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
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INVEST #93S 
#SOUTHINDIANOCEAN #MOZAMBIQUECHANNEL
TCFA/UPDATE
As of 06:00 UTC Feb 17, 2021:
Location: 21.2°S 37.5°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Gusts: 35 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 999 mb
LOCATED AT 17/06UTC APPROXIMATELY 320 KM  NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND.
CURRENT POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS: HIGH.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
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Patrick Hoareau
 Météo974
M974World
Cyclone Class 4
 Cheers,PH.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

01W. WARNING 1. ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10- 15KT) EASTERLY RELATIVE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ROBUST WESTWARD AND  POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW THAT IS PROVIDING AMPLE VENTILATION TO  THE CONVECTION, AND WARM (29-30C) ALONG-TRACK SST IN THE PHILIPPINE  SEA. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP- LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST. TD 01W WILL TRACK MORE NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE DURATION OF  THE FORECAST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE  NORTHEAST. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE STEADY  INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 55KNOTS BY 72H AS THE SYSTEM  APPROACHES CENTRAL PHILIPPINES. BEYOND 72H, TD 01W WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER LEYTE BY 96H  AND TRACK ACROSS THE PHILIPPINE ARCHIPELAGO, AND BY 120H, WILL BE  OVER THE ISLAND OF MINDORO, APPROXIMATELY 165KM SOUTH OF MANILA.  INTERACTION WITH THE ISLANDS WILL ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 30KNOTS BY  120H.
01W. WARNING 1. ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10- 15KT) EASTERLY RELATIVE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ROBUST WESTWARD AND POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW THAT IS PROVIDING AMPLE VENTILATION TO THE CONVECTION, AND WARM (29-30C) ALONG-TRACK SST IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP- LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST. TD 01W WILL TRACK MORE NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 55KNOTS BY 72H AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES CENTRAL PHILIPPINES. BEYOND 72H, TD 01W WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER LEYTE BY 96H AND TRACK ACROSS THE PHILIPPINE ARCHIPELAGO, AND BY 120H, WILL BE OVER THE ISLAND OF MINDORO, APPROXIMATELY 165KM SOUTH OF MANILA. INTERACTION WITH THE ISLANDS WILL ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 30KNOTS BY 120H.

01W. 17/0730UTC. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE  IMAGERY SHOWS FORMATIVE RAIN BANDS WITH FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION  LOOSELY WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC).
01W. 17/0730UTC. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FORMATIVE RAIN BANDS WITH FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION LOOSELY WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC).

01W. 17/0447UTC. FORMATIVE LOW LEVEL CLOUD FEATURES
01W. 17/0447UTC. FORMATIVE LOW LEVEL CLOUD FEATURES

NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT AND EVENLY  SPREAD OUT; HOWEVER, DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL STORM  MOTION OF THIS DEVELOPING CYCLONE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE  FIRST JTWC TRACK FORECAST ON THIS SYSTEM.
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT AND EVENLY SPREAD OUT; HOWEVER, DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL STORM MOTION OF THIS DEVELOPING CYCLONE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FIRST JTWC TRACK FORECAST ON THIS SYSTEM.


17/09UTC. INVEST 91W IS NOW TD 01W. JTWC IS ISSUING 6 HOURLY WARNINGS ON 01W. INVEST 93S IS STILL HIGH.3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED FOR 01W AND INVEST 93S.
17/09UTC. INVEST 91W IS NOW TD 01W. JTWC IS ISSUING 6 HOURLY WARNINGS ON 01W. INVEST 93S IS STILL HIGH.3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED FOR 01W AND INVEST 93S.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mercredi 17 Février 2021 à 12:35