South Indian: 21S(GUAMBE) forecast to intensify to 80knots( Strong Category 1) by 48hours, 17/21utc update


21S(GUAMBE). ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A DEVELOPING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). CLICK ON THE IMAGE TO ANIMATE IF NEEDED.


21S(GUAMBE). ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE  IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A DEVELOPING CENTRAL  DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER  (LLCC).
21S(GUAMBE). ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A DEVELOPING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
2021 FEB 17 2110UTC #SOUTHERNHEMISPHERE
TC #21S #GUAMBE  #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN #MOZAMBIQUECHANNEL
WARNING 1
As of 18:00 UTC Feb 17, 2021:
Location: 21.9°S 37.5°E
Maximum Winds: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Gusts: 55 kt ( 100km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 991 mb
21S (GUAMBE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 KM WEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06
KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
Patrick Hoareau
 Météo974
M974World
Cyclone Class 4
 Cheers,PH.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

21S( GUAMBE). WARNING 1 ISSUED AT 17/21UTC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW TO  MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY NEAR RADIAL OUTFLOW AND WARM  (29-30C) SST VALUES.THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF DEEP  CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CENTER AND THE LACK OF HIGH-RESOLUTION MICROWAVE  IMAGERY AT THIS TIME. TC 21S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 72H ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH- SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST. AFTER  72H, THE SYSTEM WILL RECURVE SOUTHEASTWARD TO EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD  AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE  WESTERLIES. EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION WILL COMMENCE NEAR 96H AND  CONTINUE AT 120H AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW  ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.TC 21S IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY  THROUGH 48H WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS/CATEGORY 1 AT 48H. STEADY  WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AFTER 72H AS VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES AND SST VALUES  COOL TO 26-27C.
21S( GUAMBE). WARNING 1 ISSUED AT 17/21UTC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY NEAR RADIAL OUTFLOW AND WARM (29-30C) SST VALUES.THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CENTER AND THE LACK OF HIGH-RESOLUTION MICROWAVE IMAGERY AT THIS TIME. TC 21S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 72H ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH- SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST. AFTER 72H, THE SYSTEM WILL RECURVE SOUTHEASTWARD TO EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION WILL COMMENCE NEAR 96H AND CONTINUE AT 120H AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.TC 21S IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THROUGH 48H WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS/CATEGORY 1 AT 48H. STEADY WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AFTER 72H AS VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES AND SST VALUES COOL TO 26-27C.

21S(GUAMBE). 17/1838UTC. ASCAT-B IMAGE SHOWING A SWATH OF 40-45 KNOT WINDS  OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. ADDITIONALLY, A 171827Z SCATSAT IMAGE  SHOWED 43-47 KNOTS OVER THE EASTERN QUADRANT.
21S(GUAMBE). 17/1838UTC. ASCAT-B IMAGE SHOWING A SWATH OF 40-45 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. ADDITIONALLY, A 171827Z SCATSAT IMAGE SHOWED 43-47 KNOTS OVER THE EASTERN QUADRANT.

21S(GUAMBE). NUMERICAL MODEL  GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK  WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
21S(GUAMBE). NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

21S(GUAMBE). 17/1535UTC. SMAP READ WINDS OF 53KNOTS( 10MINUTES AVERAGE) WHICH IS SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE THE 1MINUTE ESTIMATE FROM JTWC AT 17/18UTC.
21S(GUAMBE). 17/1535UTC. SMAP READ WINDS OF 53KNOTS( 10MINUTES AVERAGE) WHICH IS SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE THE 1MINUTE ESTIMATE FROM JTWC AT 17/18UTC.

21S(GUAMBE). 17/2215UTC. Eumetsat. Enhanced by Patrick Hoareau.
21S(GUAMBE). 17/2215UTC. Eumetsat. Enhanced by Patrick Hoareau.

17/2130UTC. JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON 01W AND 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON 21S. 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED FOR BOTH SYSTEMS.
17/2130UTC. JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON 01W AND 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON 21S. 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED FOR BOTH SYSTEMS.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Jeudi 18 Février 2021 à 01:45