SOUTH INDIAN: 19S(FARAJI) still a Category 2, forecast to weaken but to re-intensify after 72hours, 11/09utc update


9S(FARAJI). 11/08UTC. 6HOUR LOOP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS SPIRAL BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT WRAP
INTO A FORMING 15 KM DIAMETER EYE. THE PRESENCE OF THE EYE FEATURE
LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. CLICK TO ANIMATE IF NEEDED.


19S(FARAJI). 11/08UTC. 6HOUR LOOP.ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SPIRAL BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT WRAP INTO A FORMING 15 KM DIAMETER EYE. THE PRESENCE OF THE EYE FEATURE LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION.
19S(FARAJI). 11/08UTC. 6HOUR LOOP.ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SPIRAL BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT WRAP INTO A FORMING 15 KM DIAMETER EYE. THE PRESENCE OF THE EYE FEATURE LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION.
2021 FEB 11 0915UTC #SOUTHERNHEMISPHERE
TC #19S #FARAJI  #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
UPDATE
As of 06:00 UTC Feb 11, 2021:
Location: 16.4°S 84.6°E
Maximum Winds: 95 kt ( 175km/h)
Gusts: 115 kt ( 215km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 962 mb
CATEGORY US: 2
FORECAST TO WEAKEN NEXT 72H
TC 19S(FARAJI) LOCATED AT 11/06UTC APPROXIMATELY1670 KM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS

Patrick Hoareau
 Météo974
M974World
Cyclone Class 4
 Cheers,PH.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

19S(FARAJI). WARNING 13 ISSUED AT 11/09UTC.TC FARAJI IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE  SOUTHWEST AND THROUGH A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR  AND CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. AS THE STEERING STR CONTINUES TO BUILD IT WILL REPOSITION FARTHER WEST AND BEGIN TO DRIVE TC FARAJI GENERALLY WESTWARD AFTER 36H. MODERATE WIND SHEAR COUPLED WITH PERIODS OF CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT WILL  WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO 45 KNOTS BY 72H. THEREAFTER, THE STEERING STR WILL REPOSITION AND BEGIN TO STEER THE SYSTEM WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  LOW (5-10 KTS) WIND SHEAR AND CONTINUED WARM (28-39 CELSIUS) SEAS AFTER  72H WILL LEAD TO GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO 55 KNOTS BY 120H.
19S(FARAJI). WARNING 13 ISSUED AT 11/09UTC.TC FARAJI IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THROUGH A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. AS THE STEERING STR CONTINUES TO BUILD IT WILL REPOSITION FARTHER WEST AND BEGIN TO DRIVE TC FARAJI GENERALLY WESTWARD AFTER 36H. MODERATE WIND SHEAR COUPLED WITH PERIODS OF CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO 45 KNOTS BY 72H. THEREAFTER, THE STEERING STR WILL REPOSITION AND BEGIN TO STEER THE SYSTEM WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. LOW (5-10 KTS) WIND SHEAR AND CONTINUED WARM (28-39 CELSIUS) SEAS AFTER 72H WILL LEAD TO GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO 55 KNOTS BY 120H.


19S(FARAJI). NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT, ALTHOUGH THE NAVGEM MODEL PROVIDES A FAR LEFT OF TRACK (POLEWARD) SOLUTION. ADDITIONALLY, THE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THE STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REPOSITIONING RESULTS IN A  SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF ALONG TRACK SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS. THIS  ALONG TRACK SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS, COUPLED WITH A 740 KM ACROSS TRACK SPREAD AT 120H, LENDS OVERALL FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC  FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED JUST RIGHT OF THE MULTI-MODEL  CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE APPARENT NAVGEM BIAS.
19S(FARAJI). NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT, ALTHOUGH THE NAVGEM MODEL PROVIDES A FAR LEFT OF TRACK (POLEWARD) SOLUTION. ADDITIONALLY, THE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THE STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REPOSITIONING RESULTS IN A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF ALONG TRACK SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS. THIS ALONG TRACK SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS, COUPLED WITH A 740 KM ACROSS TRACK SPREAD AT 120H, LENDS OVERALL FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED JUST RIGHT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE APPARENT NAVGEM BIAS.

19S(FARAJI). 11/0707UTC. NOAA-20.
19S(FARAJI). 11/0707UTC. NOAA-20.

19S(FARAJI). 11/0757UTC. SMALL BUT CLOUD-FILLED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE STILL DEPICTED.
19S(FARAJI). 11/0757UTC. SMALL BUT CLOUD-FILLED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE STILL DEPICTED.

19S(FARAJI). 11/0404UTC.ASCAT-C.
19S(FARAJI). 11/0404UTC.ASCAT-C.


JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON 19S(FARAJI). 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED FOR 19S. THEY WERE DISCONTINUED FOR 20P AT 10/1740UTC.
JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON 19S(FARAJI). 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED FOR 19S. THEY WERE DISCONTINUED FOR 20P AT 10/1740UTC.


11/00UTC.
11/00UTC.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Jeudi 11 Février 2021 à 14:10