01W(DUJUAN) 45knots relocated and struggling under wind shear. 21S(GUAMBE) 85knots/CAT 2 intensifying. 19/15utc updates


01W(DUJUAN). LATE RECEIPT OF A 191259Z ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PARTIAL PASS CONFIRMS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE CONVECTIVE MASS THAT WAS ORIGINALLY THOUGHT TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLCC IS NOW REVEALED TO BE DISPLACED WELL TO THE
NORTHWEST DUE TO THE STRONG EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR.


01W(DUJUAN).  LATE RECEIPT OF A 191259Z ASCAT-B  SCATTEROMETER PARTIAL PASS CONFIRMS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH  CONFIDENCE. THE CONVECTIVE MASS THAT WAS ORIGINALLY THOUGHT TO BE  ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLCC IS NOW REVEALED TO BE DISPLACED WELL TO THE  NORTHWEST DUE TO THE STRONG EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR.
01W(DUJUAN). LATE RECEIPT OF A 191259Z ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PARTIAL PASS CONFIRMS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CONVECTIVE MASS THAT WAS ORIGINALLY THOUGHT TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLCC IS NOW REVEALED TO BE DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTHWEST DUE TO THE STRONG EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR.
2021 FEB 19 1610UTC #WESTERNNORTHPACIFIC 
TS #01W #DUJUAN 
WARNING 10
As of 12:00 UTC Feb 19, 2021:
Location: 6.2°N 130.3°E
Maximum Winds: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Gusts: 55 kt ( 100km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 994 mb
TROPICAL STORM 01W (DUJUAN), LOCATED AT 19/12UTC APPROXIMATELY 1380 KM SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
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#SOUTHERNHEMISPHERE
TC #21S #GUAMBE  #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN #MOZAMBIQUECHANNEL
UPDATE
As of 12:00 UTC Feb 19, 2021:
Location: 24.9°S 36.5°E
Maximum Winds: 85 kt (160km/h)
Gusts: 105 kt ( 195km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 964 mb
CATEGORY US: 2
INTENSIFYING
TC 21S (GUAMBE), LOCATED AT 19/12UTC APPROXIMATELY 410KM EAST NORTHEAST OF MAPUTO/MOZAMBIQUE HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07KM/H OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
----------------------------------------
Patrick Hoareau
 Météo974
M974World
Cyclone Class 4
 Cheers,PH.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

01W(DUJUAN). WARNING 10 ISSUED AT 19/15UTC. JUSTIFICATION FOR RELOCATION: RELOCATED INITIAL POSITION OF  TS 01W BASED ON NEWLY AVAILABLE PARTIAL SCATTEROMETER DATA AND THE EMERGENCE OF A VISIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IN ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.TS 01W IS FORECASTED TO MAKE  LANDFALL ALONG THE EXTREME NORTHEAST COAST OF MINDANAO NEAR BETWEEN  36/48H, THEN TRACK OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINE ISLANDS  AND LYING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MINDORO BY 72H. THE SYSTEM IS  NOT EXPECTED TO UNDERGO ANY ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION AND WILL  STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGH 72H DUE TO THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,  AND TERRAIN INTERACTION.
01W(DUJUAN). WARNING 10 ISSUED AT 19/15UTC. JUSTIFICATION FOR RELOCATION: RELOCATED INITIAL POSITION OF TS 01W BASED ON NEWLY AVAILABLE PARTIAL SCATTEROMETER DATA AND THE EMERGENCE OF A VISIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IN ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.TS 01W IS FORECASTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EXTREME NORTHEAST COAST OF MINDANAO NEAR BETWEEN 36/48H, THEN TRACK OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINE ISLANDS AND LYING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MINDORO BY 72H. THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO UNDERGO ANY ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION AND WILL STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGH 72H DUE TO THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND TERRAIN INTERACTION.

01W(DUJUAN).  NUMERICAL MODEL  GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 360KM SPREAD AT 48H,  INCREASING TO 435KM AT 72H. HOWEVER, IN LIGHT OF THE SIGNIFICANT  CHANGES IN THE RECENT POSITION AND TRACK, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN  THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 72H.
01W(DUJUAN). NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 360KM SPREAD AT 48H, INCREASING TO 435KM AT 72H. HOWEVER, IN LIGHT OF THE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE RECENT POSITION AND TRACK, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 72H.

21S(GUAMBE). 19/16UTC. THE CYCLONE HAS REACHED US/CATEGORY 2 AT 12UTC. THE IMAGERY DEPICTS A TIGHT CORE BECOMING RECENTLY BETTER ORGANIZED WITH AN EYE FEATURE SURROUNDED WITH COOLING CLOUD-TOPS.
21S(GUAMBE). 19/16UTC. THE CYCLONE HAS REACHED US/CATEGORY 2 AT 12UTC. THE IMAGERY DEPICTS A TIGHT CORE BECOMING RECENTLY BETTER ORGANIZED WITH AN EYE FEATURE SURROUNDED WITH COOLING CLOUD-TOPS.

21S(GUAMBE). NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INTENSIFICATION WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THE NEXT 24/36H.
21S(GUAMBE). NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INTENSIFICATION WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THE NEXT 24/36H.

19/12UTC. JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON 01W AND 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON 21S. 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED FOR BOTH SYSTEMS.
19/12UTC. JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON 01W AND 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON 21S. 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED FOR BOTH SYSTEMS.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Vendredi 19 Février 2021 à 20:50