SAR and SMAP satellites read Super Cyclone winds for 19S(FARAJI), Invest 92P is still likely to develop, 09/09utc updates

19S(FARAJI). 09/0830UTC. 6H LOOP. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE VERY SMALL BUT WELL DEFINED EYE FEATURE THAT WAS EVIDENT AT 0600UTC HAS SUBSEQUENTLY COLLAPSED, BUT THE MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A SMALL, SOMEWHAT ELONGATED AND MOSTLY CLOUD FILLED EYE LIKE FEATURE THROUGH THE 0700UTC HOUR. CLICK TO ANIMATE IF NECESSARY.

19S(FARAJI). WARNING 9 ISSUED AT 09/09UTC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 130 KNOTS/CATEGORY 4 WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, HEDGED SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T7.0 IN LIGHT OF A DATA T-NUMBER OF T6.0 (115 KTS), WITH ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM A FMEE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T6.5 (127 KTS), AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T6.6 AND A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 131 KTS. FINALLY, A 090000Z RADARSAT-2 SAR BULLSEYE INDICATED WINDS OF 131 KNOTS, WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO NEAR 150 KNOTS, LENDING ADDITIONAL CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL INTENSITY. TC FARAJI IS CURRENTLY TRACKING GENERALLY EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE NORTH THROUGH A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONEMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR, WARM (27-28C) SEAS AND WEAK EASTWARD OUTFLOW. TC FARAJI IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NER THROUGH 24H. BY 24H, A STRONG NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL (STR) IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE EAST, WHICH WILL BLOCK ANY FURTHER EASTWARD MOVEMENT. AS THIS NEW RIDGE TAKES OVER AS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW, AND TURN SHARPLY SOUTHWARD BY 36H, AND BY 72H, IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO A WESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER STR LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO A COMBINATION OF INCREASED WIND SHEAR, DECREASING SEAS SURFACE TEMPS AND GENERALLY MARGINAL OUTFLOW CONDITIONS. SHORT DURATION BURSTS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ON A DIURNAL CYCLE, WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLUCTUATIONS IN THE INTENSITY, BUT THE OVERALL TREND WILL BE DOWNWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

19S(FARAJI). NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO, BUT WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE TURN TO THE SOUTH AND WEST, PRIMARILY DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE RATE OF WEAKENING AND THUS THE LEVEL OF THE STEERING FLOW. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES ON THE SOUTH AND WEST SIDE OF THE CONSENSUS MODEL ENVELOPE THOUGH 36H, THEN NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE INFLUENCE OF THE NAVGEM TRACKER, WHICH IS A UNLIKELY OUTLIER TO THE SOUTH. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE TURN TO THE SOUTH AND WEST, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.

19S(FARAJI). 09/0835UTC. MICROWAVE DEPICTS THE EYE FEATURE NOW CLOUD-FILLED. THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN.

19S(FARAJI). 09/0746UTC. NOAA-20 SHOWING THE COLLAPSING EYE FEATURE.

19S(FARAJI). 09/0008UTC. SMAP(NASA ) READ 111KNOTS WINDS(10 MINUTES)= 127KNOTS/1MINUTE.

INVEST 92P. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CONVERGING ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH SUBSEQUENT CONSOLIDATION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

INVEST 92P. 09/0930UTC. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING, DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING A BROAD AREA OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.

09/06UTC. JTWC HAS BEEN ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON 19S(FARAJI). INVEST 92S IS STILL HIGH. 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE PROVIDED FOR BOTH 19S AND 92P.

09/00UTC.