JTWC Patrick Hoareau
SOUTH INDIAN: Invest 95S up-graded to Medium for the next 24hours, 22/13utc update - 03/22/2021 - 19:20
22/13UTC. INVEST 95S IS NOW ASSESSED AS HAVING MEDIUM CHANCES OF REACHING 35KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 24HOURS. JTWC IS ISSUING 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON THE SYSTEM. 2021 MAR 22 1455UTC...
2 week cyclonic development potential. 16/1830utc update - 03/17/2021 - 10:10
WEEK1: No tropical cyclones (TCs) formed during the last week. Since forming on 4 March, Subtropical Storm Habana remains over the southern Indian Ocean and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)...
SOUTH INDIAN: 24S(HABANA) shows subtropical characteristics with strong winds removed from the center, 16/09utc update - 03/16/2021 - 13:55
24S(HABANA). 16/08UTC. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. IF NEEDED CLICK TO ANIMATE. 2021 MAR 16 09UTC #SOUTHERNHEMISPHERE TC #24S...
SOUTH INDIAN: 24S(HABANA), 50knots, weakening, should be slowly approaching the Mascarenes as a residual system ,15/09uc update - 03/15/2021 - 13:45
2021 MAR 15 09UTC #SOUTHERNHEMISPHERE TC #24S #HABANA #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN WARNING 23 As of 06:00 UTC Mar 15, 2021: Location: 22.4°S 71.2°E Maximum Winds: 50 kt (95km/h) Gusts: 65 kt ( 120km/h) Minimum...
SOUTH INDIAN: 24S(HABANA), 65knots/US Cat1, forecast to steadily weaken and remain slow-moving over 72hours, 14/09utc update - 03/14/2021 - 13:50
24S(HABANA). 14/09UTC. 9H ANIMATION. TC 24S IS WEAKENING STEADILY UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOTS) WEST-NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND DRY AIR...
SOUTH INDIAN: 24S(HABANA) down to US/Category 1, is still weakening, 13/12utc update - 03/13/2021 - 17:55
24S(HABANA). 13/13UTC. 9H ANIMATION. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A MUCH WEAKENED CYCLONE FROM 24H AGO( DOWN FROM 115KNOTS TO 80KNOTS). DRY AIR APPEARS TO BE IMPINGING ON THE WESTERN...
SOUTH INDIAN: 24S(HABANA) is now rapidly weakening, 13/00utc update - 03/13/2021 - 06:55
24S(HABANA). 13/02UTC. 9H ANIMATION. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS 24S LOSING ITS EYE FEATURE WHEREAS THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING . CLICK TO...
TC 24S(HABANA) still a powerful US/Category 4, intensity likely under-estimated past 24hours, set to weaken rapidly after 24h, 12/09utc update - 03/12/2021 - 14:30
24S(HABANA). 12/09UTC. 15H ANIMATION. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A COMPACT AND HIGHLY SYMMETRICAL STRUCTURE AND A 45-KM RAGGED BUT WELL-DEFINED EYE....
SOUTH INDIAN: 24S(HABANA) is still close to "Super Typhoon/Cyclone" intensity,forecast to weaken more rapidly after 48h, 11/21utc update - 03/12/2021 - 02:35
24S(HABANA). 11/22UTC. 9H ANIMATION. 24S REMAINS COMPACT AND WELL ORGANIZED. CLOUD-TOPS ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER SINCE 11/1730UTC. 11/2045UTC SATELLITE BULLETIN FROM JTWC HAD DOVRAK AT T6.0/6.5/W0.5/24HRS...
SOUTH INDIAN:24S(HABANA)125knots/Cat4 forecast to weaken slowly next 48hours but short-term intensity increase still possible,11/09utc update - 03/11/2021 - 14:35
24S(HABANA). 11/09UTC. 9H ANIMATION. THE SYSTEM HAS COMPLETED AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AS THE NEW RAGGED EYE HAS SHRUNK TO APPROXIMATELY 33KM.THE SYSTEM REMAINS COMPACT AND SYMMETRICAL.11/0830UTC...
SOUTH INDIAN: Super Cyclone 24S(HABANA) peaked at 135knots, eye-wall replacement cycle stopped the intensification, 10/21utc update - 03/11/2021 - 04:15
24S(HABANA). 10/23UTC. 18H ANIMATION. UP-DATED JTWC ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT SUPER CYCLONE 24S(HABANA) REACHED A PEAK INTENSITY OF 135KNOTS/CATEGORY 4 AT 10/12UTC. THE EYE-WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE HAS...
SOUTH INDIAN: 24S(HABANA), explosive intensification,forecast to reach "Super Typhoon/Cyclone" intensity within 3/6hours, 10/09utc update - 03/10/2021 - 14:10
24S(HABANA). 10/09UTC. 6H ANIMATION CENTERED ON THE 15KM EYE FEATURE. CLICK TO ANIMATE IF NEEDED. 2021 MAR 10 0930UTC #SOUTHERNHEMISPHERE TC #24S #HABANA #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN WARNING 13/UPDATE As of...
SOUTH INDIAN: 24S(HABANA) is intensifying rapidly and could reach US/Category 4 within the next 6hours, 10/03utc update - 03/10/2021 - 09:05
24S(HABANA). 10/04UTC. 6H ANIMATION. THE CYCLONE IS INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY FAR TO THE EAST-NORHTEAST OF THE MASCARENE ISLANDS. THE EYE IS SHARPER AND CONVECTION SURROUNDING IT IS MORE INTENSE. A...
2 week cyclonic development potential: moderate chances for: South Indian, Northwest Australia and East of the Philippines, 09/1830utc update - 03/10/2021 - 07:30
WEEK 1: As predicted in last week's outlook, two tropical cyclones developed over the South Indian Ocean during the past week. Cyclone Habana formed over the south-central Indian Ocean and...
SOUTH INDIAN: 24S(Habana), 70knots/Cat1, forecast to reach Cat4 by 48h, rapid intensification possible , 09/09utc update - 03/09/2021 - 13:55
24S(HABANA). 09/09UTC. TC 24S HAS BEGUN TO REINTENSIFY AFTER A WEAKENING PHASE ASSOCIATED WITH ITS SLOW FORWARD MOTION AND OCEANIC COOLING. THE REINTENSIFICATION IS EVIDENT IN THE ANIMATED ENHANCED...
SOUTH INDIAN: 25S(IMAN) is now subtropical, 24S(HABANA) forecast to re-intensify after 24h, 08/09utc updates - 03/08/2021 - 14:55
24S(HABANA). ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH TIGHT RAIN BANDS AND A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST THAT HAS WARMED EVEN AS IT MAINTAINED A 22-KM PINHOLE EYE. CLICK TO...
SOUTH INDIAN: 24S(HABANA) set to re-intensify after 48hours and 25S(IMAN) analysed at 45knots, 07/21utc updates - 03/08/2021 - 02:00
24S(HABANA) AND 25S(IMAN). ON THE RIGHT END 24S LOST IT EYE FEATURE WHICH HAS BEEN BACK RECENTLY. 25S HAS INTENSIFIED BUT HAS A SHEARED PATTERN. CLICK TO ANIMATE IF NEEDED. 2021 MAR 07 21UTC...
SOUTH INDIAN: 24S(HABANA) still a US/CAT 4, forecast to weaken next 48h and then undergo a 2nd intensity spike, 07/09utc update - 03/07/2021 - 14:55
24S(HABANA). 07/09UTC. 8H ANIMATION. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE SHOWS A COMPACT SYSTEM THAT MAINTAINED DEEP, SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND A PINHOLE 9-KM EYE. CLICK TO ANIMATE IF NEEDED....
SOUTH INDIAN: Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert issued for Invest 91S(IMAN) tracking to the west of Réunion island - 03/07/2021 - 04:30
INVEST 91S. 07/00UTC. 9H ANIMATION DEPICTING INTENSE CONVECTION TRACKING OVER RÉUNION ISLAND WHERE A MARKED THUNDERY ACTIVITY IS REPORTED. SEVERAL LOCATIONS REPORT TOPS GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE...
SOUTH INDIAN: 24S(HABANA) still a powerful and compact CAT 4, Invest 91S up-graded to Medium west of Réunion, 06/18utc update - 03/06/2021 - 23:15
06/18UTC. 9H ANIMATION. CAT4 24S(HABANA) ON THE RIGHT END. ON THE LEFT END INVEST 91S IS CURRENTLY ASSESSED AT 30KNOTS WITH ASSOCIATED INTENSE CONVECTION TRACKING PARTLY OVER RÉUNION ISLAND. IF...
SOUTH PACIFIC: 23P(NIRAN), still a US/CAT 2 but will rapidly become subtropical and weaken drastically next 36h, 06/15utc update - 03/06/2021 - 19:20
2021 MAR 06 15UTC #SOUTHERNHEMISPHERE TC #23P #NIRAN #SOUTHPACIFICOCEAN #CORALSEA WARNING 23 As of 12:00 UTC Mar 06, 2021: Location: 24.3°S 169.5°E Maximum Winds: 90 kt ( 165km/h)...
SOUTH PACIFIC: 23P(NIRAN), US/CAT 3, is tracking rapidly South of New Caledonia, rapidly weakening, 06/03utc update - 03/06/2021 - 07:55
23P(NIRAN). 06/03UTC. WEAKENING SYSTEM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS THE EYE HAS FILLED AND CONVECTION IS BECOMING MORE RAGGED AND FRONTAL IN NATURE AS NIRAN ACCELERATES TO...
SOUTH INDIAN: 24S(HABANA) US/CAT 4 has not weakened so far, 06/03utc update - 03/06/2021 - 07:30
24S(HABANA). 06/02UTC. 9H ANIMATION SHOWS THE CYCLONE REMAINS COMPACT AND INTENSE. IF NEEDED CLICK ON THE IMAGE TO ANIMATE. 2021 MAR 06 03UTC #SOUTHERNHEMISPHERE TC #24S #HABANA ...
SOUTH INDIAN: 24S(HABANA) has reached US/CAT 4 with 260km/h top gusts, still intensifying, 05/15utc update - 03/05/2021 - 19:55
24S(HABANA). 05/1515UTC. SATELLITE INTENSITY ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM IS STILL INTENSIFYING. DVORAK HAS REACHED 6.5/6.5 AT 1415UTC. CLICK TO ANIMATE IF NEEDED. 2021 MAR 05 15UTC...
SOUTH PACIFIC: Super Cyclone 23P(NIRAN) has reached US/Category 5, bearing down on Noumea/New Caledonia - 03/05/2021 - 19:15
23P(NIRAN). 05/1435UTC. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 23P HAS UNDERGONE A PERIOD OF EXTREME RAPID INTENSIFICATION (ERI), HAVING INTENSIFIED 30 KNOTS IN SIX HOURS, WITH...
South Pacific: 23P(NIRAN) US/Cat 4,still intensifying likely above the forecast/South Indian: 24S(HABANA): explosive intensification,05/09utc updates - 03/05/2021 - 13:30
23P(NIRAN). 05/09UTC. ENHANCED INFRA-RED ANIMATION SHOWS COOLING CLOUD TOPS AROUND THE WELL DEFINED EYE .THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE IS NOW IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS COMPACT SYSTEM. THE CYCLONE IS STILL...
SOUTH PACIFIC: 23P(NIRAN), rapid intensification up to US/Category 4 within 12hours, rapidly approaching NCaledonia area, 05/03utc update - 03/05/2021 - 07:35
2021 MAR 05 03UTC #SOUTHERNHEMISPHERE TC #23P #NIRAN #SOUTHPACIFICOCEAN #CORALSEA WARNING 17 As of 00:00 UTC Mar 05, 2021: Location: 16.7°S 154.6°E Maximum Winds: 110 kt ( 205km/h) Gusts:...
Southern Hemisphere: the JTWC is monitoring 4 systems at once, 23P(NIRAN), 22S(MARIAN), 24S(HABANA) and Invest 91S. 04/15utc updates - 03/04/2021 - 19:30
04/15UTC. THE JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON 23P(NIRAN) AND 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON 22S(MARIAN) AND 24S(HABANA). 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED FOR THE 3 SYSTEMS. INVEST 91S IS NOW ON THE...
SHEM:busy time! 23P(NIRAN) set to reach US/Cat 4 by 24h/ 22S(MARIAN) still at 55knots/ Invest 90S up-graded to High, Invest 91S soon on the map, 04/03utc updates - 03/04/2021 - 08:05
04/06UTC. JTWC HAS BEEN ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON 23P(NIRAN) AND 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON 22S(MARIAN). 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED FOR BOTH SYSTEMS. INVEST 90S IS NOW LIKELY TO REACH35KNOTS...
SHEM: 23P(NIRAN) forecast to peak as a strong US/Cat 3 in 36h, 22S(MARIAN) is weakening. Invest 90S now on the map, 03/15utc updates - 03/03/2021 - 19:50
03/18UTC. JTWC HAS BEEN ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON 23P(NIRAN) AND 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON 22S(MARIAN). 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED FOR BOTH SYSTEMS. INVEST 90S IS NOW ON THE MAP WITH...
Les News
Major HURRICANE 05E(ERICK) near CAT 4 US making landfall
06/19/2025
- PATRICK HOAREAU
01W(WUTIP) 1st Typhoon of the 2025 Western North Pacific season
06/14/2025
- PATRICK HOAREAU
3 Week Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability//1406utc
05/14/2025
- PATRICK HOAREAU
Liens utiles
01W(WUTIP) 1st Typhoon of the 2025 Western North Pacific season
3 Week Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability//1406utc
TC 29S(ERROL) peaked at CATEGORY 5 US/SUPER TYPHOON after Extreme Rapid Intensification//3 Week Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability//1618utc
INVEST 96P under close watch// 3 Week Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability//1109utc
TC 27S(COURTNEY) recahed Super Typhoon Intensity//Over-land TC 28S(DIANNE)//INVEST 97W//3003uitc
01W(WUTIP) 1st Typhoon of the 2025 Western North Pacific season
3 Week Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability//1406utc
TC 29S(ERROL) peaked at CATEGORY 5 US/SUPER TYPHOON after Extreme Rapid Intensification//3 Week Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability//1618utc
INVEST 96P under close watch// 3 Week Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability//1109utc
TC 27S(COURTNEY) recahed Super Typhoon Intensity//Over-land TC 28S(DIANNE)//INVEST 97W//3003uitc
MMS/Vacoas: Janvier 2023: le plus pluvieux à MAURICE depuis 20ans! RODRIGUES: proche de la normale...
ILES SOEURS: la REUNION et MAURICE douchées par des pluies localement fortes// Et ce n'est probablement pas fini// 26/19h
MAURITIUS: significant rain at last!
MMS/Vacoas: dry to very dry December 2022 for MAURITIUS and RODRIGUES & the outer islands//Forecast for JAN & FEB 2023
Mid-November: still dry over most of MAURITIUS, RODRIGUES and ST BRANDON, near normal at Agaléga//Forecast for Nov/Dec/Jan 2023
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