South China Sea: Invest 92W is up-graded to Medium, 11/06utc update

INVEST 92W. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 102335UTC AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTION DISPLACED FROM THE CENTER. IN ADDITION, AN 110230UTC ASCAT METOP-C IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE RADIUS OF MAX WINDS EXTENDS APPROXIMATELY 280KM FROM THE CENTER, INDICATING THAT 92W REMAINS A MONSOON DEPRESSION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) (10-20 KNOTS) OFFSET BY A CURRENT LACK OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT. 92W REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE AREA OF WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) (30-31C).

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT STEADILY CONSOLIDATES AND INTENSIFIES PRIOR TO MOVING OVER HAINAN ISLAND WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF WEAKENING DUE TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AS 92W PASSES OVER HAINAN ISLAND, 92W WILL RE-INTENSIFY AS IT ENTERS AN AREA OF EVEN WARMER WATERS AND LOWER VWS OVER THE GULF OF TONKIN. FURTHERMORE, AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTI- CYCLONE TO THE NORTH WILL RETROGRADE EASTWARD AND IMPROVE OUTFLOW ALLOWING FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

INVEST 92W.ASCAT METOP-C IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE RADIUS OF MAX WINDS EXTENDS APPROXIMATELY 280KM FROM THE CENTER, INDICATING THAT 92W REMAINS A MONSOON DEPRESSION.

11/06UTC. INVEST 92W: UP-GRADED TO MEDIUM: MODERATE CHANCES OF DEVELOPING 25KNOT WINDS NEAR ITS CENTER WITHIN 24HOURS.

11/00UTC.

11/00UTC.