TD 05W. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE RAGGED AND PARTLY EXPOSED LOWEL CIRCULATION TRACKED ACROSS SOUTHERN HAINAN ISLAND WITH THE ASSOCIATED DISORGANIZED CONVECTION SHEARED WESTWARD AND SOUTHWESTWARD. IF NECESSARY CLICK ON THE IMAGERY TO ANIMATE IT.
2021 JUNE 12 0745UTC #WESTERNNORTHPACIFIC
TD #05W
WARNING 2/UPDATE
As of 06:00 UTC June12, 2021:
Location: 19.0°N 108.8°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Gusts: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 998 mb
LOCATED AT 12/06UTC APPROXIMATELY 375 KM SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 26 KM/H
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
JTWC PH
ILES SOEURS
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
TD #05W
WARNING 2/UPDATE
As of 06:00 UTC June12, 2021:
Location: 19.0°N 108.8°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Gusts: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 998 mb
LOCATED AT 12/06UTC APPROXIMATELY 375 KM SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 26 KM/H
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
JTWC PH
ILES SOEURS
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
TD 05W. WARNING 2 ISSUED AT 12/09UTC.THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE MULTISPECTRAL SAT IMAGERY ANIMATION THAT COINCIDED WITH A WEAK CIRCULATION FEATURE IN A RADAR LOOP FROM CMA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25KNOTS IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM NEARBY OBSERVATIONS INCLUDING A SHIP REPORT (23KNOTS/999MB) 140KM TO THE NORTHWEST AND CONSISTENT WITH THE CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. THE SYSTEM IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST- NORTHEAST.TD 05W WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIGDE, CROSS THE GULF OF TONKIN, MAKE LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN VIETNAM AROUND 18H, THEN TRACK INLAND. THE ROBUST OUTFLOW AND THE WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPS IN THE GULF WILL OFFSET THE VWS AND FUEL INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 45KNOTS BY 12H. AFTERWARD, LAND INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN WILL RESULT IN A RAPID DECAY LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY 36H AFTER IT PASSES JUST SOUTH OF HANOI.
TD 05W. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH EVEN AND GRADUAL SPREADING TO 180KM AT 24H; AFTERWARD, ERRATIC DISPERSION AS THEY LOSE THE VORTEX OVER LAND. IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC. 12/06UTC. DETAILS FOR INVEST 92E.
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC. 12/06UTC. DETAILS FOR INVEST 93E.
JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TD 05W.
12/0845UTC.
12/00UTC.
12/00UTC.
