INVEST 96W. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ISSUED AT 03/1930UTC.ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 031605Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH IMPROVED CURVED BANDING IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REORIENTING TO THE NORTHWEST INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST).
2021 JULY 03 2250UTC #WESTERNNORTHPACIFIC
INVEST #96W
TCFA/UPDATE
As of 18:00 UTC July 03, 2021:
Location: 11.0°N 133.2°E
Maximum Winds: 18/23 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb
LOCATED AT 03/18UTC APPROXIMATELY 445 KM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PALAU.
CURRENT POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS: UP-GRADED TO HIGH.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
JTWC PH
ILES SOEURS
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
INVEST #96W
TCFA/UPDATE
As of 18:00 UTC July 03, 2021:
Location: 11.0°N 133.2°E
Maximum Winds: 18/23 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb
LOCATED AT 03/18UTC APPROXIMATELY 445 KM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PALAU.
CURRENT POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS: UP-GRADED TO HIGH.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
JTWC PH
ILES SOEURS
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 96W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD BUT ARE SPLIT REGARDING INTENSIFICATION, WITH GFS AND NAVGEM SHOWING DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT ECMWF AND JMA STAYING BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. A 031241Z PARTIAL METOP-C ASCAT PASS SHOWS A LARGE WIND FIELD WITH SMALL POCKETS OF 25-30 KNOT WINDS CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT, VERIFYING MODEL INITIALIZATION. THIS INDICATES THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION AND CONSOLIDATION SHOWN BY GFS AND NAVGEM MODELS.
GFS SHOWS DEVELOPMENT.
ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION AND A MORE WESTWARD TRACK.
03/18UTC.
03/20UTC. INVEST 96W IS UP-GRADED TO HIGH: HIGH CHANCES OF DEVELOPING 25KNOT WINDS NEAR ITS CENTER WITHIN 24HOURS.
