SCS: Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert for Invest 92W, likely to intensify, track over Hainan and then Gulf of Tonkin, 11/12h30utc update

INVEST 92W. ANIMATION DEPICTS A MONSOON DEPRESSION BUT CONVECTIVE BANDS PREVIOUSLY DISPLACED NEARLY 185KM ARE NOW DEEPENING AND CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER. IF NECESSARY CLICK ON THE IMAGE TO ANIMATE IT.

INVEST 92W. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 110820Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL A MONSOON DEPRESSION, BUT CONVECTIVE BANDS PREVIOUSLY DISPLACED NEARLY 185KM ARE NOW DEEPENING AND CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE SYSTEM STILL EXISTS UNDER A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) (10-20 KNOTS) OFFSET BY A LACK OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT. 92W REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE AREA OF WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) (30-31C).

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG ITS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND INTENSIFY PRIOR TO MOVING OVER HAINAN ISLAND. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF WEAKENING DUE TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AS 92W PASSES OVER HAINAN ISLAND, 92W WILL RE- INTENSIFY WHEN IT ENTERS AN AREA OF EVEN WARMER WATERS AND LOWER VWS OVER THE GULF OF TONKIN. FURTHERMORE, AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH WILL RETROGRADE EASTWARD AND IMPROVE OUTFLOW ALLOWING FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

11/12UTC. INVEST 92W: UP-GRADED TO HIGH: ELEVATED CHANCES OF DEVELOPING 25KNOT WINDS NEAR ITS CENTER WITHIN 24H.