INVEST 92E. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ISSUED AT 07/03UTC.FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 170 KM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.1N 109.1W TO 11.9N 112.1W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 060200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 109.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KM/H.THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 107.5W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 109.5W, APPROXIMATELY 1249 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 062309Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE NORTHWEST OF AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH SUPPORTING DIVERGENCE ALOFT, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM HAS A SHORT WINDOW FOR DEVELOPMENT AS IT WILL MOVE INTO AN UNFAVORABLE SHEAR AND OUTFLOW ENVIRONMENT IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. SHOULD THE SYSTEM FORM, IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.
07/03UTC. INVEST 92E.
INVEST 92E. MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT DEVELOPING SIGNIFICANTLY THIS SYSTEM.
