JTWC Patrick Hoareau
WNP: Tropical Storm 04W is gradually intensifying in a favourable environment to the North of Sonsorol, 30/15utc update - 05/30/2021 - 19:30
TS 04W. 30/14UTC. 4H30 LOOP. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR) INDICATES A DEEP CONSOLIDATED CENTRAL BALL OF CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). 2021 MAY 30 1450UTC...
WNP: TD 04W is forecast to reach US/CAT 1 Typhoon intensity by 72hours offshore to the East of the Philippines, 30/03utc update - 05/30/2021 - 07:35
TD 04W. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS OVERALL CONSOLIDATION EVEN AS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION SLIGHTLY WARMED WITH THE FEEDER BANDS, MOSTLY FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTH,...
Western North Pacific: Tropical Cyclone Fomation Alert issued for Invest 90W// Invest 99W up-graded to Medium, 29/06utc update - 05/29/2021 - 11:20
29/0630UTC. 6H LOOP. INVEST 90W: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS MID TO UPPER LEVEL TURNING OVER AN ILL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. INVEST 99W: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL...
Western North Pacific: Invest 90W is up-graded to Medium, Invest 99W closely monitored too, 28/03utc update - 05/28/2021 - 08:05
NPP/NIGHT TIME VISIBLE. INVEST 90W: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION AND LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES THAT WRAP INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CENTER// INVEST 99W: ANIMATED...
Western North Pacific: a couple of Invest Areas under watch, likely to consolidate next several days, 27/05 03utc update - 05/27/2021 - 07:30
INVEST 99W: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. INVEST 90W: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A...
BAY OF BENGAL: TC 02B(YAAS) is close to be making landfall near Balasore/Odisha with 150km/h top gusts, 26/03utc update - 05/26/2021 - 07:30
TC 02B(YAAS). 26/0252UTC.RADAR ANIMATION. PARADIP. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR BALASORE. ANIMATION COURTESY OF IMD/RSMC. 2021 MAY 26 0255UTC #NORTHINDIAN...
2 week cyclonic development potential: "Multiple TCs are likely to develop over the West Pacific during the next two weeks", 25/1730utc update - 05/25/2021 - 23:15
WEEK 1: MAY 26 TO JUNE 01: The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) propagated eastward from the Indian Ocean to the Maritime Continent during mid to late May. An atmospheric Kelvin wave (KW) is currently...
BAY OF BENGAL: TC 02B(YAAS) has reached US/CAT 1 and is forecast to make landfall near Balasore/Odisha with top gusts in excess of 150km/h shortly before 24h, 25/15utc update - 05/25/2021 - 19:50
2021 MAY 25 1445UTC #NORTHINDIAN #GULFOFBENGAL TC #02B #YAAS WARNING 7 As of 12:00 UTC May 25, 2021: Location: 19.8°N 88.3°E Maximum Winds: 65 kt ( 120km/h) Gusts: 80 kt ( 150km/h) Minimum...
BAY OF BENGAL: TC 02B(YAAS) is approaching Northern Odisha coastline while intensifying within 24h to US/CAT 1, landfall forecast near Balasore, 25/09utc update - 05/25/2021 - 14:30
TC 02B(YAAS). 25/10UTC. 6H ANIMATION. EXPANDING CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER(LLCC). CLICK TO ANIMATE IF NECESSARY. 2021 MAY 25 0930UTC #NORTHINDIAN #GULFOFBENGAL TC #02B #YAAS...
BAY OF BENGAL: 02B(YAAS) now a 60knot cyclone,forecast to reach US/CAT 1 within 24hours while making landfall near BHITARKANINKA National Park/India by 24h, 25/03utc update - 05/25/2021 - 07:31
2021 MAY 25 0230UTC #NORTHINDIAN #GULFOFBENGAL TC #02B #YAAS WARNING 5 As of 00:00 UTC May 25, 2021: Location: 18.2°N 88.1°E Maximum Winds: 60 kt ( 110km/h) Gusts: 75 kt ( 140km/h) Minimum...
BAY OF BENGAL: TC 02B named YAAS, will be intensifying significantly next 48hours and is expected to make landfall over Northern Odisha shortly after 48h, 24/09utc update - 05/24/2021 - 13:55
TC 02B(YAAS). 24/09UTC. 6H LOOP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING BUT BROAD, PARTLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH A WIDE SWATH OF DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE...
BAY OF BENGAL: TC 02B is consolidating from a monsoon depression, forecast to intensify significantly next 48hours before landfall Northeast of Paradip, 24/03utc update - 05/24/2021 - 07:15
TC 02B. 24/0230UTC. 2H30 LOOP.PREVIOUSLY TC 02B CARRIED THE SIGNATURE AND BROAD WIND FIELDS OF A MONSOON DEPRESSION, BUT RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SHOW...
NORTH INDIAN: Invest 93B : Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert, likely to consolidate and intensify quickly next 24/48hours, 22/18utc update - 05/23/2021 - 01:08
INVEST 93B. 22/19UTC. 9H LOOP. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 221024Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LOW LEVEL...
TC 01A(TAUKTAE) made landfall near Jafarabad/Gujarat, India, Cyclone got better organized just prior to landfall, Final Warning at 17/21utc - 05/18/2021 - 01:15
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 01A HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL, WITH A 37KM EYE FEATURE, SURROUNDED BY A SOLID RING OF COLD CLOUD TOPS IN...
01A(TAUKTAE) still a dengerous US/Category 3 Cyclone is forecast to make landfall within 12hours near Jafrabad/Gujarat, 17/15utc update - 05/17/2021 - 18:45
TC 01A(TAUKTAE). 17/14UTC. 12H LOOP. 01A REMAINS AN INTENSE SYSTEM WITH TOP GUSTS STILL CURRENTLY EXCEEDING 200KM/H CLOSE TO ITS EYE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE MAKING LANDFALL NEAR JAFRABAD/GUJARAT WITHIN...
01A(TAUKTAE) is now a powerful US/CAT 4 Cyclone, apprx 145km to Mumbai and heading North towards Jafrabad/Gujarat, 17/03utc update - 05/17/2021 - 07:40
TC 01A(TAUKTAE). 17/02UTC. 12H LOOP.ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO BE SYMMETRICAL AND COMPACT DESPITE HOURS OF PERSISTENT LAND INTERACTION WITH THE WESTERN...
TC 01A(TAUKTAE) has under-gone rapid intensification, now US/CAT 3, forecast landfall between Veraval and Mahuva/India by 24/36hours, 16/15utc update - 05/16/2021 - 19:30
TC 01A(TAUKTAE). 16/14UTC. 12H LOOP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) ALONG WITH ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS A DEEP COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A RAGGED 31KM EYE. 2021 MAY...
TC 01A(TAUKTAE) now a US/Category 1,rapid intensification likely next 24hours, forecast landfall near Vanakbara/India by apprx 48h, 16/03utc update - 05/16/2021 - 07:50
TC 01A(TAUKTAE). ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEPENING SYSTEM THAT HAS BECOME MORE COMPACT. ALSO, FEEDER BANDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY HAVE WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO...
TC 01A(TAUKTAE) is intensifying and is forecast to reach US/CAT 3 within 72hours while moving northward, 15/09utc update - 05/15/2021 - 14:20
TC 01A(TAUKTAE). IMPROVING SATELLITE SIGNATURE. Eumetsat/PH. 2021 MAY 15 0945UTC TC #01A #TAUKTAE #NORTHINDIAN #ARABIANSEA WARNING 5 As of 06:00 UTC May 15, 2021: Location: 13.5°N 73.3°E Maximum...
TC 01A(TAUKTAE) is forecast to rapidly intensify after 24hours up to US/CAT 3 while approaching India/Paskistan border area, 15/03utc update - 05/15/2021 - 07:10
TC 01A(TAUKTAE). 15/02UTC. CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS BEEN INTENSIFYING OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. 01A IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AFTER 24HOURS. INSAT3-D. IMD. PH. 2021 MAY 15 0235UTC...
03W tracking over Mindanao as a 25knot system// Invest 92A is now TC 01A: forecast to rapidly intensify to US/CAT 3 by 72hours, 14/09utc update - 05/14/2021 - 13:55
TC 01A. IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AFTER 24H WITH A PEAK OF 110 KNOTS/CAT 3 BY 72H. 2021 MAY 14 0910UTC TD #03W #WESTERNNORTHPACIFIC WARNING 7 As of 06:00 UTC May 14, 2021: Location: 7.8°N...
TD 03W making landfall over Mindanao and weakening// Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert issued for Invest 92A - 05/13/2021 - 19:10
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT(TCFA) ISSUED FOR INVEST 92A OVER THE ARABIAN SEA APPROXIMATELY 980KM SOUTH OF MUMBAI. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST HIGH DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM ONCE IT MOVES...
Western North Pacific: 03W is a compact and intensifying Tropical Storm, approaching Mindanao, 13/03utc update - 05/13/2021 - 07:30
TS 03W. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONSOLIDATING IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE...
Western North Pacific: Invest 96W is now TD 03W, forecast to intensify next 24hours while approaching Mindanao, 12/21utc update - 05/13/2021 - 00:20
TD 03W. 12/20UTC. 5H LOOP. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED AND DEVELOPED WELL DEFINED SHALLOW BANDING FEATURES WHICH ARE WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A...
The JTWC is monitoring two Invest Areas: 96W and 92A. 12/00utc update - 05/12/2021 - 06:45
12/00UTC. OVER THE NEXT 24HOURS INVEST 96W IS ASSESSED AS LOW: LOW CHANCES OF HAVING 25KNOT WINDS NEAR ITS CENTER. INVEST 96A REMAINS MEDIUM: MEDIUM CHANCES OF HAVING 35KNOT WINDS NEAR ITS CENTER....
NORTH INDIAN: Invest 92A up-graded to Medium, expected to consolidate within 24/48hours, 11/00utc update - 05/11/2021 - 06:05
INVEST 92A IS UP-GRADED TO MEDIUM: MODERATE CHANCES OF HAVING SUSTAINED WINDS REACHING 35KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTER WITHIN 24HOURS. 2021 MAY 11 0140UTC #NORTHINDIAN #ARABIANSEA INVEST 92A ...
24/09utc update: former STY 02W(SURIGAE) now subtropical, Invest 96P subtropical over the South Pacific, new burst of convection for 29S(JOBO) SE of Dar es Salaam - 04/24/2021 - 13:35
INVEST 96P. 24/0530UTC. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM WITH 35KNOT WINDS JUST NORTH OF 30°SOUTH. CLICK TO ANIMATE. 2021 APR 24 0900UTC #WESTERNNORTHPACIFIC SS #02W #SURIGAE WARNING 44 As of 06:00 UTC Apr 24,...
TY 02W(SURIGAE), CAT1, has entered a high vertical wind shear zone// 29S(JOBO): recent convective bloom observed, 23/03utc update - 04/23/2021 - 07:56
29S(JOBO). 23/03UTC. 9H LOOP. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SHOW RAPID UPS AND DOWNS. A RECENT BLOOM HAS BEEN OBSERVED APPRX 575KM SOUTHEAST OF DAR ES SALAAM/TANZANIA. CLICK TO ANIMATE IF...
TY 02W(SURIGAE) still intense since the 16th, intensity on the decline though// 29S(JOBO): intensity has peaked near 55knots, small-sized system, 22/03utc update - 04/22/2021 - 08:55
2021 APR 22 0345UTC #WESTERNNORTHPACIFIC TY #02W #SURIGAE WARNING 35 As of 00:00 UTC Apr 22, 2021: Location: 19.6°N 125.0°E Maximum Winds: 100 kt (185km/h) Gusts: 130 kt ( 230km/h) Minimum...
TY 02W(SURIGAE) remains powerful,CAT4 with a large 120km eye//Invest 95S is now TC 29S(JOBO), rapidly intensifying North of Madagascar, 21/03utc update - 04/21/2021 - 07:40
02W(SURIGAE). 21/0230UTC. 3H30 LOOP. 2021 APR 21 0230UTC #WESTERNNORTHPACIFIC TY #02W #SURIGAE WARNING 31 As of 00:00 UTC Apr 21, 2021: Location: 17.4°N 125.2°E Maximum Winds: 120 kt (220km/h)...
Les News
A new version (V8.2) of the AMSR2 winds for Tropical Cyclones (TC-winds) has been released
03/06/2026
- PATRICK HOAREAU
3 Week Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability//03/03/26
03/04/2026
- PATRICK HOAREAU
Pluviométrie pour la saison estivale 2025/26 à MAURICE et à RODRIGUES, update le 27/02/26
02/27/2026
- PATRICK HOAREAU
3 Week Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability//12/30/25
12/31/2025
- PATRICK HOAREAU
2021 STORM YEAR JTWC TROPICAL ACTIVITY TIMELINE
12/23/2025
- PATRICK HOAREAU
Difference in tropical cyclone activity across the JTWC AOR between El Niño and La Niña months
12/06/2025
- PATRICK HOAREAU
Liens utiles
3 Week Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability//03/03/26
3 Week Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability//12/30/25
2021 STORM YEAR JTWC TROPICAL ACTIVITY TIMELINE
Difference in tropical cyclone activity across the JTWC AOR between El Niño and La Niña months
Major HURRICANE 05E(ERICK) near CAT 4 US making landfall
3 Week Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability//03/03/26
3 Week Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability//12/30/25
2021 STORM YEAR JTWC TROPICAL ACTIVITY TIMELINE
Difference in tropical cyclone activity across the JTWC AOR between El Niño and La Niña months
Major HURRICANE 05E(ERICK) near CAT 4 US making landfall
MAURICE: Avis de Pluies Torrentielles en début d'après midi, précipitations particulièrement intenses sur la région de Port Louis//0617h30
MMS/Vacoas: Janvier 2023: le plus pluvieux à MAURICE depuis 20ans! RODRIGUES: proche de la normale...
ILES SOEURS: la REUNION et MAURICE douchées par des pluies localement fortes// Et ce n'est probablement pas fini// 26/19h
MAURITIUS: significant rain at last!
MMS/Vacoas: dry to very dry December 2022 for MAURITIUS and RODRIGUES & the outer islands//Forecast for JAN & FEB 2023
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