Western Pacific: Tropical Storm 16W(OMAIS) gaining some momentum//Atlantic: 07L(GRACE) CAT 3 Hurricane close to Mexican coastline, 21/03utc updates

JTWC ARE ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON 16W.

TS 16W(OMAIS). WARNING 35 ISSUED AT 21/03UTC.THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. HOWEVER, INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITIONING REVEALS TRACK SPEED IS FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED, IMPACTING THE OVERALL CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH TIMELINES. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 16W (OMAIS) HAS CONTINUED TO STEADILY TRACK TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AS AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE(STR) REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTHEAST. OMAIS IS EXPECTED TO TURN ON TO A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS IT ROUNDS THE STR, FOLLOWED BY A RECURVATURE TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER CLEARING THE RYUKU CHAIN. ALTOUGH THERE HAS BEEN IMPROVEMENT IN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS LIMITED AS THE DEVELOPING RIDGE TO THE NORTH SHOULD BRING INCREASINGLY SIGNIFICANT SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS A RESULT OF THE INCREASED INITIAL ANALYSIS INTENSITY, THE PEAK INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 50 KNOTS. BEYOND 48H, STRONG SHEAR OPPOSING THE STORM MOTION SHOULD RESULT IN RAPID DETERIORATION. THE INCREASED FORWARD SPEED SHIFTED THE TRACK SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD, WHICH NOW TAKES A COURSE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF SOUTH KOREA. THIS LANDFALL SHOULD FURTHER CONTRIBUTE TO A DISSIPATION OVER LAND BY 72H. HOWEVER, BY THIS TIME, 16W WILL BE UNDER THE JET AND COMPLETING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). THE DISSIPATION SCENARIO IS BEING MAINTAINED FOR CONSISTENCY, BUT ETT MAY COMPLETE AT THE SAME TIME OR SOONER THAN DISSIPATION. SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT ANOTHER CIRCULATION MOVING OFF THE COAST OF CHINA MAY MERGE WITH THE REMNANTS OF 16W, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A DEVELOPING EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW OVER THE SEA OF JAPAN, BEYOND THIS FORECAST.

TS 16W(OMAIS). FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY NEXT 36HOURS.

TS 16W(OMAIS). SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A COMPACT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OBSCURED BY A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE. CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS RAISED TO 45 KNOTS, WHICH IS AT THE HIGH END OF THE AVAILABLE AGENCY FIXES. THIS ASSESSMENT IS SUPPORTED BY A 202310UTC ASCAT-A PASS WITH 42 KNOT DATA OBSERVED, AS WELL AS CIMSS SATCON AND ADT ESTIMATES. DESPITE A CONTINUED LACK OF USEFUL LEO MICROWAVE IMAGERY, THE INITIAL POSITION IS NOW PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AGENCY FIXES AND THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT DATA. PRIOR POSITIONS WERE ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE HIGHER THAN EXPECTED FORWARD MOTION. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES RIDGING IS BUILDING IN OVER THE EAST SEA, AS EXPECTED.

TS 16W(OMAIS). MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE SPLIT. NAVGEM HAS NOW MOVED INTO THE PRIMARY GROUPING OF CONSENSUS MODELS INCLUDING EGRR,GFS, ECMWF AND THEIR ENSEMBLES, WHICH ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT THE JTWC TRACK THROUGH 48H. THERE IS INCREASING ALONG TRACK SPREAD THEREAFTER. UKMET AND GALWEM REMAIN NOTABLE OUTLIERS TO THE WEST. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED EAST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WESTWARD OUTLIERS. THE INTENSIFY FORECAST IS NEAR CONSENSUS THROUGH 24H, AND THEN FALLS MORE RAPIDLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EXPECTED IMPACTS OF HIGH SHEAR. HIGH RESOLUTION HWRF AND COAMPS-TC MODELS PEAK AT 55 TO 60 KNOTS, RESPECTIVELY.

21/00UTC.

EASTERN PACIFIC. REMNANTS OF 12E(LINDA). WARNING 42/FINAL ISSUED AT 20/16UTC.

REMNANTS OF 12E(LINDA). GUIDANCE.

21/00UTC.

ATLANTIC. 07L(GRACE). UP-GRADED AT 21/03UTC TO CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE BASED ON AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 105KNOTS. THE INTENSE CYCLONE WILL BE MAKING LANDFALL WITHIN 3/6HOURS SOUTH OF TUXPAN/MEXICO. SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL OVER THE WARM WATER OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

07L(GRACE). GUIDANCE.

TS 08L(HENRI). WARNING 21 ISSUED AT 21/03UTC. CURRENT INTENSITY IS 60KNOTS AND IS FORECAST TO PEAK AT 75KNOTS/CAT 1 BY 22/00UTC.

TS 08L(HENRI). GUIDANCE.