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Western Pacific: 16W gradually intensifying//Eastern Pacific: 12E(LINDA) on the wane//Atlantic: 07L(GRACE) back over water set to reach Hurricane intensity,20/03utc updates



JTWC ARE ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON 16W.
JTWC ARE ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON 16W.
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
 JTWC PH
ILES SOEURS
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

TD 16W. WARNING 31 ISSUED AT 20/03UTC.
TD 16W. WARNING 31 ISSUED AT 20/03UTC.
1621080700  77N1670W  15
1621080706  78N1678W  20
1621080712  80N1684W  20
1621080718  88N1688W  25
1621080800  95N1694W  25
1621080806  99N1705W  20
1621080812 100N1719W  20
1621080818 105N1730W  20
1621080900 110N1740W  20
1621080906 115N1751W  20
1621080912 117N1764W  20
1621080918 120N1789W  20
1621081000 121N1797W  20
1621081006 122N1795E  20
1621081012 122N1787E  25
1621081018 122N1780E  30
1621081100 123N1772E  30
1621081106 124N1766E  30
1621081112 121N1759E  30
1621081118 121N1750E  30
1621081200 121N1740E  25
1621081206 128N1727E  25
1621081212 126N1713E  30
1621081218 126N1699E  30
1621081300 127N1686E  35
1621081306 128N1674E  35
1621081312 128N1662E  35
1621081318 126N1647E  30
1621081400 125N1632E  30
1621081406 124N1617E  35
1621081412 123N1603E  35
1621081418 125N1591E  35
1621081500 126N1577E  30
1621081506 127N1561E  30
1621081512 129N1545E  25
1621081518 132N1530E  25
1621081600 134N1514E  25
1621081606 135N1498E  20
1621081612 132N1480E  20
1621081618 132N1463E  20
1621081700 133N1451E  20
1621081706 134N1439E  20
1621081712 135N1419E  20
1621081718 137N1406E  15
1621081800 142N1391E  15
1621081806 147N1382E  15
1621081812 152N1371E  15
1621081818 159N1361E  20
1621081900 166N1352E  20
1621081906 174N1341E  20
1621081912 180N1331E  25
1621081918 185N1322E  30
1621082000 190N1309E  30
NNNN
 

Western Pacific: 16W gradually intensifying//Eastern Pacific: 12E(LINDA) on the wane//Atlantic: 07L(GRACE) back over water set to reach Hurricane intensity,20/03utc updates


TD 16W.SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) POSITIONED UNDER THE NORTHERN CANOPY OF A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH ASSOCIATED RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. A PARTIAL 192125UTC SSMIS 91GHZ PASS SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. A PARTIAL 200048UTC ASCAT-B PASS INDICATES THE LLCC HAS AN AREA OF 15-20KT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY WITH WEAKER WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST QUADRANTS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED OFF THE AFOREMENTIONED MSI ANALYSIS AND THE PGTW SATELLITE FIX. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE.
TD 16W.SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) POSITIONED UNDER THE NORTHERN CANOPY OF A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH ASSOCIATED RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. A PARTIAL 192125UTC SSMIS 91GHZ PASS SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. A PARTIAL 200048UTC ASCAT-B PASS INDICATES THE LLCC HAS AN AREA OF 15-20KT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY WITH WEAKER WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST QUADRANTS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED OFF THE AFOREMENTIONED MSI ANALYSIS AND THE PGTW SATELLITE FIX. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE.


TD 16W. MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE RECURVE SCENARIO, WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 175 KM AT 24H THAT SPREADS RAPIDLY TO 465 KM BY 48H. AFTER 72H, THE SYSTEM ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD AS IT FALLS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERLIES. THE UKMET ENSEMBLE MEAN IS THE LEFT OUTLIER WHILE ECMWF IS THE RIGHT OUTLIER, LENDING TO THE JTWC TRACK BEING HEDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AND AHEAD OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS (ICNW) BY 36H. AFTERWHICH, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS HEDGED LOWER THAN ICNW DUE TO SYSTEM INTERACTION WITH SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS TD 16W APPROACHES AT 48H SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA.
TD 16W. MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE RECURVE SCENARIO, WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 175 KM AT 24H THAT SPREADS RAPIDLY TO 465 KM BY 48H. AFTER 72H, THE SYSTEM ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD AS IT FALLS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERLIES. THE UKMET ENSEMBLE MEAN IS THE LEFT OUTLIER WHILE ECMWF IS THE RIGHT OUTLIER, LENDING TO THE JTWC TRACK BEING HEDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AND AHEAD OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS (ICNW) BY 36H. AFTERWHICH, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS HEDGED LOWER THAN ICNW DUE TO SYSTEM INTERACTION WITH SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS TD 16W APPROACHES AT 48H SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA.


20/00UTC.
20/00UTC.

EASTERN PACIFIC. TS 12E(LINDA).WARNING 40 ISSUED AT 20/04UTC.
EASTERN PACIFIC. TS 12E(LINDA).WARNING 40 ISSUED AT 20/04UTC.
1221080818 107N 944W  20
1221080900 111N 956W  25
1221080906 115N 968W  25
1221080912 119N 981W  30
1221080918 123N 991W  30
1221081000 126N 999W  30
1221081006 130N1007W  30
1221081012 135N1016W  30
1221081018 141N1023W  40
1221081100 142N1031W  45
1221081106 141N1043W  45
1221081112 138N1053W  50
1221081118 137N1058W  60
1221081200 138N1063W  60
1221081206 142N1067W  60
1221081212 146N1074W  65
1221081218 150N1082W  65
1221081300 156N1091W  75
1221081306 161N1101W  80
1221081312 166N1112W  90
1221081318 172N1123W 100
1221081400 177N1133W 105
1221081406 182N1143W 110
1221081412 186N1155W 115
1221081418 190N1165W 115
1221081500 193N1177W 110
1221081506 193N1187W 100
1221081512 191N1197W 100
1221081518 189N1207W  95
1221081600 187N1216W  95
1221081606 183N1225W  90
1221081612 180N1233W  90
1221081618 178N1242W  90
1221081700 177N1250W  85
1221081706 176N1260W  80
1221081712 175N1269W  75
1221081718 176N1278W  80
1221081800 177N1290W  90
1221081806 179N1301W  90
1221081812 181N1313W  90
1221081818 185N1325W  85
1221081900 191N1340W  80
1221081906 195N1355W  75
1221081912 197N1371W  60
1221081918 196N1387W  45
1221082000 198N1403W  40
NNNN

TS 12E(LINDA). GUIDANCE.
TS 12E(LINDA). GUIDANCE.

TS 12E(LINDA). LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT INDUCING WEAKENING.
TS 12E(LINDA). LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT INDUCING WEAKENING.

20/00UTC.
20/00UTC.


ATLANTIC. TS 07L(GRACE). WARNING 27 ISSUED AT 20/03UTC. HAVING CROSSED THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THE CENTER IS NOW BACK OVER OPEN WATER. CURRENT INTENSITY IS 55KNOTS AND IS FORECAST TO PEAK AT 75KNOTS/CAT 1 JUST PRIOR LANDFALL OVER THE MEXICAN COASTLINE.
ATLANTIC. TS 07L(GRACE). WARNING 27 ISSUED AT 20/03UTC. HAVING CROSSED THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THE CENTER IS NOW BACK OVER OPEN WATER. CURRENT INTENSITY IS 55KNOTS AND IS FORECAST TO PEAK AT 75KNOTS/CAT 1 JUST PRIOR LANDFALL OVER THE MEXICAN COASTLINE.

TS 07L(GRACE). GUIDANCE.
TS 07L(GRACE). GUIDANCE.

 

TS 07L(GRACE). FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS THE CYCLONE SHOULD BENEFIT FROM GOOD OCEAN HEAT CONTENT.
TS 07L(GRACE). FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS THE CYCLONE SHOULD BENEFIT FROM GOOD OCEAN HEAT CONTENT.

TS 08L(HENRI). WARNING 17 ISSUED AT 20/03UTC. CURRENT INTENSITY IS 55KNOTS AND IS FORECAST TO PEAK AT 80KNOTS/CAT 1 BY 22/00UTC.
TS 08L(HENRI). WARNING 17 ISSUED AT 20/03UTC. CURRENT INTENSITY IS 55KNOTS AND IS FORECAST TO PEAK AT 80KNOTS/CAT 1 BY 22/00UTC.
0821081400 375N 646W  15
0821081406 370N 643W  15
0821081412 366N 640W  20
0821081418 362N 637W  25
0821081500 358N 634W  25
0821081506 354N 631W  25
0821081512 348N 628W  25
0821081518 341N 627W  25
0821081600 334N 627W  25
0821081606 325N 627W  30
0821081612 315N 627W  30
0821081618 311N 629W  35
0821081700 308N 631W  40
0821081706 306N 633W  45
0821081712 305N 635W  45
0821081718 304N 637W  55
0821081806 301N 653W  55
0821081812 300N 662W  55
0821081818 299N 671W  60
0821081900 297N 680W  60
0821081906 295N 690W  60
0821081912 295N 700W  60
0821081918 296N 710W  55
0821082000 297N 720W  55

TS 08L(HENRI). MICROWAVE DATA DEPICT WELL DEFINED BUT PARTLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
TS 08L(HENRI). MICROWAVE DATA DEPICT WELL DEFINED BUT PARTLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.

TS 08L(HENRI). GUIDANCE.
TS 08L(HENRI). GUIDANCE.

TD 16W. WARNING 31.
TD 16W. WARNING 31.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Friday, August 20th 2021 à 09:05
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