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Western Pacific: no suspect areas// Eastern Pacific: TS 13E(MARTY) & Invest 95E: Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert, 24/06utc updates



ABPW10 PGTW 240600 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):    A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.    B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.    C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):    A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.    B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.    C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.// NNNN
ABPW10 PGTW 240600 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.// NNNN

24/00UTC.
24/00UTC.

EASTERN PACIFIC. TS 13E(MARTY). WARNING 4 ISSUED AT 24/04UTC. CURRENT INTENSITY IS 40KNOTS AND IS FORECAST TO FALL DOWN BELOW 35KNOTS BY 25/12UTC.
EASTERN PACIFIC. TS 13E(MARTY). WARNING 4 ISSUED AT 24/04UTC. CURRENT INTENSITY IS 40KNOTS AND IS FORECAST TO FALL DOWN BELOW 35KNOTS BY 25/12UTC.
1321082218 193N1075W  30
1321082300 196N1089W  30
1321082306 200N1103W  35
1321082312 205N1118W  35
1321082318 208N1134W  40
1321082400 207N1151W  40
NNNN

TS 13E(MARTY). GUIDANCE.
TS 13E(MARTY). GUIDANCE.

INVEST 95E. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ISSUED AT 24/0730UTC.  AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR  12.5N 94.0W, APPROXIMATELY 3245 KM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, CA.  ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DISORGANIZED SHOWERS  AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. A 240228UTC  METOP-A ASCAT PASS DEPICTS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 15-20KT  WINDS DISPLACED OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS  INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH ROBUST  EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND  WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST).MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE  WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS  ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A  SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
INVEST 95E. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ISSUED AT 24/0730UTC. AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.5N 94.0W, APPROXIMATELY 3245 KM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, CA. ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. A 240228UTC METOP-A ASCAT PASS DEPICTS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 15-20KT WINDS DISPLACED OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST).MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
9521082300 116N 916W  15
9521082306 118N 921W  15
9521082312 120N 926W  15
9521082318 122N 930W  15
9521082400 124N 935W  15
9521082406 125N 940W  20
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INVEST 95E. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE  IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95E WILL TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD AS IT  INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
INVEST 95E. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95E WILL TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD AS IT INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

24/00UTC.
24/00UTC.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Tuesday, August 24th 2021 à 13:04