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Western Pacific: Final Warning issued on 16W, but remains under close watch//Eastern Pacific: 12E(LINDA) still a CAT 2 Hurricane and annular-like//Atlantic:07L(GRACE) South of Haiti,17/03utc updates



JTWC HAVE ISSUED WARNING 28/FINAL ON 16W AT 17/09UTC. THE SYSTEM IS DOWN-GRADED TO MEDIUM WITH MODERATE CHANCES OF REGENERATION. 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE STILL ISSUED ON IT.
JTWC HAVE ISSUED WARNING 28/FINAL ON 16W AT 17/09UTC. THE SYSTEM IS DOWN-GRADED TO MEDIUM WITH MODERATE CHANCES OF REGENERATION. 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE STILL ISSUED ON IT.


17/00UTC.
17/00UTC.

TD 16W. WARNING 28/FINAL ISSUED AT 17/09UTC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 21 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE  IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS SPIRAL BANDS OF WEAK, UPPER LEVEL CONVECTION  THAT WRAP INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. COMPOSITE  RADAR IMAGERY AND A 170344UTC 165 GHZ IMAGE DEPICT SHALLOW CONVECTION  SURROUNDING THE LOW LEVEL CENTER WITH POCKETS OF DEEPER, ALBEIT  DISORGANIZED, CONVECTION TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. THE COMBINATION  OF SATELLITE, RADAR AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY LEND ONLY MEDIUM  CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE  LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 20 KNOTS IS PLACED  WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE OVERALL LACK OF ORGANIZED  CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL WITH VERY  WARM SST VALUES (31-32 CELSIUS) OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL  WIND SHEAR (20-30 KTS). ADDITIONALLY, NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS  FROM RIDGING TO THE NORTH IS FURTHER HINDERING DEVELOPMENT. OVER THE  NEXT 24 HOURS TD 16W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD TO  WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL  RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND STRUGGLE TO CONSOLIDATE DUE TO THE  CONTINUED MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT.THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON  THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM  WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
TD 16W. WARNING 28/FINAL ISSUED AT 17/09UTC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 21 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS SPIRAL BANDS OF WEAK, UPPER LEVEL CONVECTION THAT WRAP INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY AND A 170344UTC 165 GHZ IMAGE DEPICT SHALLOW CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE LOW LEVEL CENTER WITH POCKETS OF DEEPER, ALBEIT DISORGANIZED, CONVECTION TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. THE COMBINATION OF SATELLITE, RADAR AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY LEND ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 20 KNOTS IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE OVERALL LACK OF ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL WITH VERY WARM SST VALUES (31-32 CELSIUS) OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-30 KTS). ADDITIONALLY, NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS FROM RIDGING TO THE NORTH IS FURTHER HINDERING DEVELOPMENT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS TD 16W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND STRUGGLE TO CONSOLIDATE DUE TO THE CONTINUED MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT.THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
1621080700  77N1670W  15
1621080706  78N1678W  20
1621080712  80N1684W  20
1621080718  88N1688W  25
1621080800  95N1694W  25
1621080806  99N1705W  20
1621080812 100N1719W  20
1621080818 105N1730W  20
1621080900 110N1740W  20
1621080906 115N1751W  20
1621080912 117N1764W  20
1621080918 120N1789W  20
1621081000 121N1797W  20
1621081006 122N1795E  20
1621081012 122N1787E  25
1621081018 122N1780E  30
1621081100 123N1772E  30
1621081106 124N1766E  30
1621081112 121N1759E  30
1621081118 121N1750E  30
1621081200 121N1740E  25
1621081206 128N1727E  25
1621081212 126N1713E  30
1621081218 126N1699E  30
1621081300 127N1686E  35
1621081306 128N1674E  35
1621081312 128N1662E  35
1621081318 126N1647E  30
1621081400 125N1632E  30
1621081406 124N1617E  35
1621081412 123N1603E  35
1621081418 125N1591E  35
1621081500 126N1577E  30
1621081506 127N1561E  30
1621081512 129N1545E  25
1621081518 132N1530E  25
1621081600 134N1514E  25
1621081606 135N1498E  20
1621081612 132N1480E  20
1621081618 132N1463E  20
1621081700 133N1451E  20
1621081706 134N1439E  20
NNNN
 

REMNANTS OF TD 16W.
REMNANTS OF TD 16W.


TD 16W. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, AND LENDS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST  TRACK, HOWEVER THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE  DUE TO A HIGH DEGREE OF SPREAD IN THE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE.  SPECIFICALLY, THE HWRF AND COAMPS MESOSCALE MODELS DEPICT SYSTEM  INTENSIFICATION BEYOND 25 KNOTS BETWEEN 24H AND 48H, HOWEVER GLOBAL  MODELS DO NOT DEPICT THIS INTENSIFICATION SCENARIO. THIS REFLECTS  THE CURRENT COMPLEX AND UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT THAT,  IN ADDITION TO THE DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT, HAS THE POTENTIAL TO IMPROVE  AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS FURTHER WESTWARD.
TD 16W. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, AND LENDS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK, HOWEVER THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO A HIGH DEGREE OF SPREAD IN THE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE. SPECIFICALLY, THE HWRF AND COAMPS MESOSCALE MODELS DEPICT SYSTEM INTENSIFICATION BEYOND 25 KNOTS BETWEEN 24H AND 48H, HOWEVER GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT DEPICT THIS INTENSIFICATION SCENARIO. THIS REFLECTS THE CURRENT COMPLEX AND UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT THAT, IN ADDITION TO THE DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT, HAS THE POTENTIAL TO IMPROVE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS FURTHER WESTWARD.

 

EASTERN PACIFIC. HU 12E(LINDA). WARNING 28 ISSUED AT 17/04UTC.
EASTERN PACIFIC. HU 12E(LINDA). WARNING 28 ISSUED AT 17/04UTC.
1221080818 107N 944W  20
1221080900 111N 956W  25
1221080906 115N 968W  25
1221080912 119N 981W  30
1221080918 123N 991W  30
1221081000 126N 999W  30
1221081006 130N1007W  30
1221081012 135N1016W  30
1221081018 141N1023W  40
1221081100 142N1031W  45
1221081106 141N1043W  45
1221081112 138N1053W  50
1221081118 137N1058W  60
1221081200 138N1063W  60
1221081206 142N1067W  60
1221081212 146N1074W  65
1221081218 150N1082W  65
1221081300 156N1091W  75
1221081306 161N1101W  80
1221081312 166N1112W  90
1221081318 172N1123W 100
1221081400 177N1133W 105
1221081406 182N1143W 110
1221081412 186N1155W 115
1221081418 190N1165W 115
1221081500 193N1177W 110
1221081506 193N1187W 100
1221081512 191N1197W 100
1221081518 189N1207W  95
1221081600 187N1216W  95
1221081606 183N1225W  90
1221081612 180N1233W  90
1221081618 178N1242W  90
1221081700 177N1250W  85
NNNN

HU 12E(LINDA). SATELLITE SIGNATURE IS STILL ANNULAR-LIKE.
HU 12E(LINDA). SATELLITE SIGNATURE IS STILL ANNULAR-LIKE.

HU 12E(LINDA). GUIDANCE.
HU 12E(LINDA). GUIDANCE.


17/00UTC.
17/00UTC.

ATLANTIC.TS 06L(FRED). WARNING 30 ISSUED AT 17/03UTC.
ATLANTIC.TS 06L(FRED). WARNING 30 ISSUED AT 17/03UTC.
0621080718 112N 493W  25
0621080800 113N 503W  25
0621080806 115N 514W  25
0621080812 119N 528W  25
0621080818 122N 540W  25
0621080900 126N 552W  25
0621080906 130N 564W  25
0621080912 134N 576W  25
0621080918 139N 587W  30
0621081000 146N 601W  30
0621081006 153N 615W  30
0621081012 160N 631W  30
0621081018 167N 646W  30
0621081100 174N 661W  35
0621081106 177N 676W  35
0621081112 180N 691W  40
0621081118 185N 704W  35
0621081200 192N 716W  30
0621081206 200N 729W  30
0621081212 207N 740W  30
0621081218 209N 746W  30
0621081300 214N 752W  30
0621081306 218N 762W  30
0621081312 221N 777W  30
0621081318 221N 791W  30
0621081400 225N 802W  30
0621081406 229N 812W  30
0621081412 230N 826W  30
0621081418 232N 837W  30
0621081500 235N 841W  30
0621081506 245N 843W  35
0621081512 258N 847W  35
0621081518 263N 851W  40
0621081600 270N 857W  45
0621081606 277N 859W  45
0621081612 287N 857W  50
0621081618 295N 854W  55
0621081700 306N 853W  45

TS 06L(FRED). GUIDANCE.
TS 06L(FRED). GUIDANCE.

TD 07L(GRACE). WARNING 15 ISSUED AT 17/03UTC. CURRENT INTENSITY IS 30KNOTS BUT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 65KNOTS/CAT 1 BY 21/00UTC.
TD 07L(GRACE). WARNING 15 ISSUED AT 17/03UTC. CURRENT INTENSITY IS 30KNOTS BUT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 65KNOTS/CAT 1 BY 21/00UTC.
0721080918 115N 206W  25
0721081000 115N 224W  25
0721081006 115N 242W  25
0721081012 115N 261W  25
0721081018 117N 278W  25
0721081100 118N 291W  25
0721081106 120N 310W  25
0721081112 123N 332W  25
0721081118 127N 353W  25
0721081200 133N 374W  25
0721081206 138N 393W  25
0721081212 142N 412W  30
0721081218 144N 430W  30
0721081300 145N 448W  30
0721081306 149N 467W  30
0721081312 152N 487W  30
0721081318 153N 508W  30
0721081400 154N 527W  30
0721081406 156N 547W  35
0721081412 158N 573W  40
0721081418 162N 597W  40
0721081500 165N 617W  35
0721081506 167N 637W  35
0721081512 170N 653W  35
0721081518 170N 667W  30
0721081600 171N 681W  30
0721081606 173N 695W  30
0721081612 176N 708W  30
0721081618 178N 718W  30
0721081700 180N 730W  30

TD 07L(GRACE). GUIDANCE.
TD 07L(GRACE). GUIDANCE.

TS 08L(HENRI). WARNING 5 ISSUED AT 17/03UTC.
TS 08L(HENRI). WARNING 5 ISSUED AT 17/03UTC.
0821081400 375N 646W  15
0821081406 370N 643W  15
0821081412 366N 640W  20
0821081418 362N 637W  25
0821081500 358N 634W  25
0821081506 354N 631W  25
0821081512 348N 628W  25
0821081518 341N 627W  25
0821081600 334N 627W  25
0821081606 325N 627W  30
0821081612 315N 627W  30
0821081618 311N 629W  35
0821081700 308N 631W  40

TS 08L(HENRI). GUIDANCE.
TS 08L(HENRI). GUIDANCE.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Tuesday, August 17th 2021 à 08:30