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Western Pacific:16W weakening//Eastern Pacific:Invest 94E: Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert//Atlantic: 08L(HENRI): Final warning, 23/06utc updates



JTWC ARE ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON 16W.
JTWC ARE ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON 16W.
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
 JTWC PH
ILES SOEURS
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

23/00UTC.
23/00UTC.

TD 16W(OMAIS). WARNING 43 ISSUED AT 23/03UTC.THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W COMPLETES ITS TURN AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, IT WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD, WEAKENING TO 25 KTS BY 12H DUE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THIS TRACK AND WEAKEN TO 20 KTS AS IT DISSIPATES OVER THE KOREAN PENINSULA. THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT POSSIBLY DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM EARLIER THAN 24H.
TD 16W(OMAIS). WARNING 43 ISSUED AT 23/03UTC.THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W COMPLETES ITS TURN AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, IT WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD, WEAKENING TO 25 KTS BY 12H DUE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THIS TRACK AND WEAKEN TO 20 KTS AS IT DISSIPATES OVER THE KOREAN PENINSULA. THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT POSSIBLY DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM EARLIER THAN 24H.
1621080700  77N1670W  15
1621080706  78N1678W  20
1621080712  80N1684W  20
1621080718  88N1688W  25
1621080800  95N1694W  25
1621080806  99N1705W  20
1621080812 100N1719W  20
1621080818 105N1730W  20
1621080900 110N1740W  20
1621080906 115N1751W  20
1621080912 117N1764W  20
1621080918 120N1789W  20
1621081000 121N1797W  20
1621081006 122N1795E  20
1621081012 122N1787E  25
1621081018 122N1780E  30
1621081100 123N1772E  30
1621081106 124N1766E  30
1621081112 121N1759E  30
1621081118 121N1750E  30
1621081200 121N1740E  25
1621081206 128N1727E  25
1621081212 126N1713E  30
1621081218 126N1699E  30
1621081300 127N1686E  35
1621081306 128N1674E  35
1621081312 128N1662E  35
1621081318 126N1647E  30
1621081400 125N1632E  30
1621081406 124N1617E  35
1621081412 123N1603E  35
1621081418 125N1591E  35
1621081500 126N1577E  30
1621081506 127N1561E  30
1621081512 129N1545E  25
1621081518 132N1530E  25
1621081600 134N1514E  25
1621081606 135N1498E  20
1621081612 132N1480E  20
1621081618 132N1463E  20
1621081700 133N1451E  20
1621081706 134N1439E  20
1621081712 135N1419E  20
1621081718 137N1406E  15
1621081800 142N1391E  15
1621081806 147N1382E  15
1621081812 152N1371E  15
1621081818 159N1361E  20
1621081900 166N1352E  20
1621081906 174N1341E  20
1621081912 178N1331E  25
1621081918 183N1320E  30
1621082000 187N1310E  30
1621082006 191N1301E  30
1621082012 195N1295E  35
1621082018 204N1289E  35
1621082100 214N1282E  45
1621082106 222N1276E  45
1621082112 230N1270E  50
1621082118 236N1265E  50
1621082200 243N1258E  45
1621082206 251N1253E  35
1621082212 260N1251E  35
1621082218 272N1249E  35
1621082300 289N1255E  30
NNNN

Western Pacific:16W weakening//Eastern Pacific:Invest 94E: Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert//Atlantic: 08L(HENRI): Final warning, 23/06utc updates

TD 16W(OMAIS). SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DYING CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IN THE EIR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS IS BASED ON AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES.
TD 16W(OMAIS). SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DYING CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IN THE EIR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS IS BASED ON AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES.

TD 16W(OMAIS). MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AFUM, WHICH TRACKS THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS LAID JUST TO THE RIGHT MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET AFUM. FOR INTENSITY, GFS AND HWRF SHOW A SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY BEFORE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AT 24H. THIS SEEMS UNREALISTIC SINCE ANY INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS VERY UNLIKELY DUE TO THE HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ON THE SYSTEM.
TD 16W(OMAIS). MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AFUM, WHICH TRACKS THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS LAID JUST TO THE RIGHT MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET AFUM. FOR INTENSITY, GFS AND HWRF SHOW A SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY BEFORE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AT 24H. THIS SEEMS UNREALISTIC SINCE ANY INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS VERY UNLIKELY DUE TO THE HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ON THE SYSTEM.

EASTERN PACIFIC. INVEST 94E. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ISSUED AT 23/01UTC.FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 220 KM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.2N 106.9W TO 20.5N 114.5W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 221800UTC INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 107.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 31 KM/H. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94E, PREVIOUSLY REMNANTS OF HURRICANE 07L) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 99.5W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 107.6W, APPROXIMATELY 360 KM EAST OF SOCORRO ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING OVER THE CENTER. INVEST 94E IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
EASTERN PACIFIC. INVEST 94E. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ISSUED AT 23/01UTC.FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 220 KM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.2N 106.9W TO 20.5N 114.5W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 221800UTC INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 107.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 31 KM/H. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94E, PREVIOUSLY REMNANTS OF HURRICANE 07L) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 99.5W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 107.6W, APPROXIMATELY 360 KM EAST OF SOCORRO ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING OVER THE CENTER. INVEST 94E IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
9421082106 193N 986W  25
9421082112 191N 999W  25
9421082118 189N1014W  25
9421082200 188N1030W  25
9421082206 188N1043W  30
9421082212 190N1058W  30
9421082218 193N1076W  30
NNNN
 

INVEST 94E. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A SHORT TERM CONSOLIDATION AS IT PROPAGATES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
INVEST 94E. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A SHORT TERM CONSOLIDATION AS IT PROPAGATES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

REMNANTS OF 12E(LINDA). GUIDANCE.
REMNANTS OF 12E(LINDA). GUIDANCE.

23/00UTC.
23/00UTC.

ATLANTIC. 08L(HENRI). WARNING 29/FINAL ISSUED AT 23/03UTC.
ATLANTIC. 08L(HENRI). WARNING 29/FINAL ISSUED AT 23/03UTC.
PEAK INTENSITY WAS 65KNOTS/CATEGORY 1.
0821081400 375N 646W  15
0821081406 370N 643W  15
0821081412 366N 640W  20
0821081418 362N 637W  25
0821081500 358N 634W  25
0821081506 354N 631W  25
0821081512 348N 628W  25
0821081518 341N 627W  25
0821081600 334N 627W  25
0821081606 325N 627W  30
0821081612 315N 627W  30
0821081618 311N 629W  35
0821081700 308N 631W  40
0821081706 306N 633W  45
0821081712 305N 635W  45
0821081718 304N 637W  55
0821081800 302N 645W  55
0821081806 301N 653W  55
0821081818 299N 671W  60
0821081900 297N 680W  60
0821081906 295N 690W  60
0821081912 295N 700W  60
0821081918 296N 710W  55
0821082000 297N 720W  55
0821082006 300N 728W  55
0821082012 301N 736W  55
0821082018 308N 738W  60
0821082100 316N 737W  60
0821082106 325N 734W  60
0821082112 336N 727W  60
0821082118 354N 718W  65
0821082200 376N 709W  65
0821082206 394N 710W  65
0821082212 407N 713W  55
0821082215 412N 716W  50
0821082218 415N 720W  40
0821082300 418N 729W  30

08L(HENRI). GUIDANCE.
08L(HENRI). GUIDANCE.

23/0445UTC.
23/0445UTC.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Monday, August 23rd 2021 à 11:01
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