Coral Sea: TC ANN(27P) has formed, forecast to intensify next 24hours maybe faster than indicated


Low confidence in the intensity forecast


WARNING 1/JTWC
WARNING 1/JTWC
https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
https://www.meteo974.re/

Recent publications: https://www.meteo974.re/Coral-Sea-INVEST-94P-likely-to-intensify-next-24-48h-and-may-take-on-subtropical-characteristics_a818.html
https://www.meteo974.re/4PM-Philippines-remnants-of-INVEST-90W-to-the-east-of-Mindanao-satellite-animations_a817.html

SOUTH PACIFIC

TC ANN(27P)
As of 18:00 UTC May 11, 2019:

Location: 16.4°S 159.0°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h )
Gusts: 45 kt ( 85km/h )

Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 mb

REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 158.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 27P (TWENTYSEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 759
NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
(KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THE CIRCULATION HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH A DEEP CONVECTIVE RAIN BAND WRAPPING AROUND
FROM THE EAST AND SUSTAINED CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE USING A COMBINATION OF THE EIR
IMAGERY AND A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN A 111903Z SSMIS 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH
THE PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS), BELOW THE KNES
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KTS) BASED ON A 111125Z ASCAT-
C IMAGE SHOWING 30 KT WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), SUPPORTIVE (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST), AND
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 27P IS TRACKING ALONG ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). OVER THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST, THIS STR WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE. AS
THE STR REORIENTS, THE TRACK WILL SHIFT EQUATORWARD SLIGHTLY, MAKING
LANDFALL SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN TIP OF CAPE YORK AFTER TAU 72.
THROUGH TAU 24, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE UNTIL
DIMINISHED OUTFLOW, SLIGHTLY COOLER SST, AND STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL MAKE THE CONDITIONS MARGINAL. AROUND TAU
72, INCREASED VWS AND LAND INTERACTION WILL CAUSE WEAKENING AND
DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL. THE 96 HOUR POSITION SHOWS
THE SYSTEM BACK OVER THE FAVORABLE WATERS OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA
BUT HIGH VWS IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT REGENERATION. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES
MARGINAL AND IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO DIFFERENTIATE BETWEEN
ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS AND THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT (200 NM SPREAD AT TAU
96) WITH THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, LENDING TO FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS
12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z, 120900Z, 121500Z AND 122100Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 111530).//
NNNN

WARNING 1/JTWC
WARNING 1/JTWC

18UTC
18UTC

1904UTC
1904UTC

1916UTC
1916UTC

 

1904UTC
1904UTC

1415UTC
1415UTC


HWRF AT 12UTC: 63KT AT +12H
HWRF AT 12UTC: 63KT AT +12H

GFS AT 12UTC: 54KT AT +42H
GFS AT 12UTC: 54KT AT +42H
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Dimanche 12 Mai 2019 à 02:37