Coral Sea: INVEST 94P likely to intensify next 24/48h and may take on subtropical characteristics

https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
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Recent publications: https://www.meteo974.re/4PM-Philippines-remnants-of-INVEST-90W-to-the-east-of-Mindanao-satellite-animations_a817.html
https://www.meteo974.re/West-Pacific-92W-development-unlikely-next-48hours-Some-models-hint-at-some-development-after-72h_a816.html

SOUTH PACIFIC

INVEST 94P
As of 12:00 UTC May 11, 2019:
Location: 16.2°S 159.9°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt ( 55km/h )
Gusts: 40 kt ( 75km/h )
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb

WTPS21 PGTW 111530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.5S 160.5E TO 14.9S 152.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 111200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.4S 160.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.8S 159.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.4S 160.0E, APPROXIMATELY
820NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 111044Z 89GHZ AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
SLIGHTLY ASYMMETRICAL LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEPENING
CONVECTION ABOVE AND POLEWARD OF THE LLC. THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL MARGINAL, WITH 94P UNDER A SMALL REGION OF
LOW-MODERATE (10-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SSTS REMAIN FAVORABLE (27-29C) IN THE IMMEDIATE
VICINITY OF THE SYSTEM, BUT DECREASE GRADUALLY TO THE WEST. GLOBAL
MODELS AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TURN SHARPLY WESTWARD, MOVE INTO
AN AREA OF STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS, AND POTENTIALLY INTENSIFY.
ADDITIONALLY, THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TAKE ON
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
121530Z.//
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