West Pacific: 92W : development unlikely next 48hours. Some models hint at some development after 72h


Southern Hemipshere: 94P may develop and might take on subtropical characteristics


WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

INVEST 92W

As of 06:00 UTC May 11, 2019:
Location: 6.8°N 158.4°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb

ABPW10 PGTW 1106001. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.1N 158.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.7N 158.5E, APPROXIMATELY 30
NM SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI.  ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A LARGE MASS OF ROTATING CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTH OF A
BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 102322Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A WEAK,
ELONGATED LLC AROUND THE ISLAND OF POHNPEI WITH A LINE  OF TROUGHING
EXTENDING NORTHEAST BELOW THE STRONGEST CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS BELOW A POINT SOURCE, ENABLING STRONG
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT WHILE POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS INHIBITED BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR IS IN THE MODERATE-HIGH
RANGE (15-25KTS) BUT DECREASES TO THE NORTH. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN FAVORABLY WARM (29-31C) IN THIS REGION OF THE EQUATORIAL
PACIFIC. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK TOWARDS THE MARIANAS, WITH MOST BACKING OFF FROM PREVIOUS
ESTIMATES OF DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL. THERE IS A GREATER DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE LATE TAU, AS THE UKMO SHOWS THE SYSTEM RECURVING
EARLY, PRIOR TO REACHING THE MARIANAS ISLANDS, AND THE GFS AND ECMWF
DISSIPATING 92W ENTIRELY AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO A COLD FRONT TO THE
NORTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

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SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE

REMNANTS OF TC LILI(26S)

As of 06:00 UTC May 11, 2019:
Location: 8.6°S 127.1°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb



INVEST 94P
As of 06:00 UTC May 11, 2019:
Location: 16.3°S 159.7°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb

ABPW10 PGTW 110600
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.3S 159.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.8S 159.3E, APPROXIMATELY
785 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA.  ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION ABOVE AND POLEWARD OF A SLIGHTLY
ASYMMETRIC, CONSOLIDATING LLC. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS
OVERALL MARGINAL, WITH ADEQUATE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW DUE TO A CO-
LOCATED ANTICYCLONE OFFSET BY HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SURROUNDING A
SMALL POCKET OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-20KTS) SHEAR VALUES. SSTS REMAIN
FAVORABLY WARM (27-29C) IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE SYSTEM, BUT
DECREASE GRADUALLY TO THE SOUTHWEST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG
AGREEMENT ON A SLOW SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK IN THE NEAR TERM, UNTIL 94P
INTERACTS WITH SOUTHEASTERLY MONSOON FLOW OFF THE AUSTRALIAN COAST
AND TAKES A STRAIGHT WESTWARD TRACK AS IT INTENSIFIES. HOWEVER, THE
LIKELIHOOD EXISTS THAT 94P WILL TAKE ON SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
AS A RESULT OF THIS INTERACTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
NNNN

GUIDANCE(MODELS) FOR INVEST 92W: HWRF SHOWS DEVELOPEMENT AFTER 72H
GUIDANCE(MODELS) FOR INVEST 92W: HWRF SHOWS DEVELOPEMENT AFTER 72H

GUIDANCE(MODELS) FOR INVEST 92W
GUIDANCE(MODELS) FOR INVEST 92W

INTENSITY GUIDANCE FOR INVEST 92W
INTENSITY GUIDANCE FOR INVEST 92W

GUIDANCE(MODELS) FOR INVEST 94P
GUIDANCE(MODELS) FOR INVEST 94P

INTENSITY GUIDANCE FOR INVEST 94P
INTENSITY GUIDANCE FOR INVEST 94P

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Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Samedi 11 Mai 2019 à 10:50