meteo





95P north-northwest of Nadi/Fiji: tropical cyclone formation alert issued by the JTWC


Models: GFS hints at development whereas ECMWF and UKMO show no development


INVEST 95P IS UPGRADED TO HIGH FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS
INVEST 95P IS UPGRADED TO HIGH FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS
https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
https://www.meteo974.re/

Previous publications: https://www.meteo974.re/95P-northeast-of-Vanuatu-may-intensify-a-bit-next-48-hours_a838.html
https://www.meteo974.re/93W-near-Guam-no-development-expected-95P-northwest-of-Fiji-might-develop-gradually-after-24hours_a837.html

INVEST #95P
As of 12:00 UTC May 17, 2019:

Location: 8.7°S 175.3°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 mb
WTPS21 PGTW 171230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.6S 174.7E TO 10.9S 177.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 170600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.1S 175.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.1S 174.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.1S 175.1E, APPROXIMATELY 605
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 170717Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH. THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS GRADUALLY IMPROVING, WITH 95P SLOWLY TRACKING INTO A
REGION OF LOW-MODERATE (10-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE GETTING STRONGER AS THE SYSTEM TAPS INTO IMPROVED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLY WARM (28-
30C) FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
TRACK, WITH ALL PREDICTING SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION, BUT VARY ON
DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL. THE GFS AND NAVGEM MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN THE
MOST FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH THE ECMWF AND UKMO DISSENTING
AND ONLY KEEPING A CIRCULATION WITH A SMALL PATCH OF ELEVATED WINDS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
181230Z.//
NNNN

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/JTWC
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/JTWC

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/JTWC
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/JTWC

1430UTC
1430UTC

GUIDANCE(MODELS) FOR INVEST 95P
GUIDANCE(MODELS) FOR INVEST 95P

GUIDANCE(MODELS) FOR INVEST 95P
GUIDANCE(MODELS) FOR INVEST 95P

GUIDANCE(MODELS) FOR INVEST 95P
GUIDANCE(MODELS) FOR INVEST 95P
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Vendredi 17 Mai 2019 à 18:53