meteo





95P northeast of Vanuatu: may intensify a bit next 48 hours


The area is now MEDIUM for the next 24 hours


https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
https://www.meteo974.re/

Previous publications: https://www.meteo974.re/93W-near-Guam-no-development-expected-95P-northwest-of-Fiji-might-develop-gradually-after-24hours_a837.html
https://www.meteo974.re/INVEST-93W-is-on-the-map-east-of-Guam-but-is-forecast-to-dissipate-while-tracking-northward_a835.html


WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

INVEST #93W
As of 12:00 UTC May 16, 2019:
Location: 13.6°N 144.9°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb
NO DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED

EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC

INVEST #91E
As of 18:00 UTC May 16, 2019:
Location: 9.0°N 100.0°W
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb

------------------------------------------------------------------------
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE

REMNANTS OF TC #ANN(27P)
As of 18:00 UTC May 16, 2019:
Location: 10.3°S 135.3°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb


INVEST #95P
As of 18:00 UTC May 16, 2019:
Location: 9.0°S 173.2°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb
ABPW10 PGTW 161830
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.0S 171.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.5S 172.7E, APPROXIMATELY 610
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A SLIGHTLY
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 161529Z SSMI F-15 85GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LLC WITH A SMALL AREA
OF DEEP CONVECTION. A 152206Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWS SOME
SCATTERED 20 KNOT WINDS AMONGST THE PREDOMINANT 15 KNOT WINDS. 95P
IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE 15 TO 20 KNOT VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND VERY WARM (29 TO
30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN MODERATE
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD
WITH SOME MINOR INTENSIFICATION BEFORE DISSIPATING. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

1930UTC: INVEST 95P
1930UTC: INVEST 95P

 

GUIDANCE(MODELS) FOR INVEST 91E
GUIDANCE(MODELS) FOR INVEST 91E

GUIDANCE FOR THE REMNANTS OF TC ANN(27P)
GUIDANCE FOR THE REMNANTS OF TC ANN(27P)

GUIDANCE FOR INVEST 95P
GUIDANCE FOR INVEST 95P
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Jeudi 16 Mai 2019 à 23:56