meteo





INVEST 93W is on the map east of Guam but is forecast to dissipate while tracking northward


The area is assessed as LOW for the next 24 hours


https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
https://www.meteo974.re/

Previous publication:  https://www.meteo974.re/Calm-and-dry-over-the-Philippines-Nice-frontal-system-over-southwestern-Australia_a834.html
https://www.meteo974.re/Philippines-below-average-rainfall-still-forecast-next-two-weeks-No-TC-development-forecast-for-the-West-Pacific-and-the_a833.html

INVEST #93W
As of 00:00 UTC May 16, 2019:

Location: 13.3°N 146.2°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 mb

ABPW10 PGTW 160200
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
13.3N 146.2E, APPROXIMATELY 82 NM EAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED, SLIGHTLY
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH SOME FLARING CONVECTION
SHEARED TO THE EAST. A 152029Z F-17 SSMIS 37 GHZ AND 152317Z MHS
METOP-B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE LLC. A 152319Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS TO THE EAST OF THE LLC
SHOWS AN AREA OF 20 KNOT WINDS. 93W IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEING OFFSET BY WARM
(28 TO 29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE WEAK CIRCULATION DISSIPATING AS IT
TRACKS GENERALLY NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

MICROWAVE DEPICTS A VERY POORLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH LIMITED CONVECTION REMOVED FROM ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. FNMOC
MICROWAVE DEPICTS A VERY POORLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH LIMITED CONVECTION REMOVED FROM ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. FNMOC

 

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Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Jeudi 16 Mai 2019 à 07:26