meteo





93W: near Guam, no development expected. 95P northwest of Fiji: might develop gradually after 24hours


95P: the european model shows it to be short-lived though


https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
https://www.meteo974.re/

Previous publication: https://www.meteo974.re/INVEST-93W-is-on-the-map-east-of-Guam-but-is-forecast-to-dissipate-while-tracking-northward_a835.html
https://www.meteo974.re/Calm-and-dry-over-the-Philippines-Nice-frontal-system-over-southwestern-Australia_a834.html


WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

INVEST #93W
As of 06:00 UTC May 16, 2019:
Location: 13.5°N 145.5°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb
ABPW10 PGTW 160600
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
13.3N 146.2E, APPROXIMATELY 82 NM EAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED,
SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH SOME FLARING
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE EAST. A 152343Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS A
SWATH OF 20 KNOT WINDS TO THE EAST OF THE LLC. 93W IS IN A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM
(28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE BEING OFFSET BY WEAK UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE DISTURBANCE BEING ABSORBED INTO A
TRANSITING BAROCLINIC LOW IN THE NEAR TERM. HOWEVER, THE SMALL SIZE
OF 93W MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
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SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE

REMNANTS OF TC #ANN(27P)
As of 06:00 UTC May 16, 2019:
Location: 11.1°S 137.0°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb


INVEST #95P
As of 06:00 UTC May 16, 2019:
Location: 8.3°S 172.1°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb
 (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.0S
171.5E, APPROXIMATELY 690 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 160234Z 89GHZ AMSR2 MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD, SLIGHTLY ASYMMETRICAL REGION OF FLARING
CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL MARGINAL, WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSETTING STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT DUE TO NEARLY
RADIAL OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORABLY WARM (28-
30C) IN THE VICINITY OF THE SYSTEM. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 95P WILL CONTINUE CONSOLIDATING OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. HOWEVER, ECMWF SHOWS 95P BEING SHORT LIVED AND QUASI-
STATIONARY, WHILE ALL OTHERS PREDICT A STRAIGHT SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

 

0740UTC INVEST 95P
0740UTC INVEST 95P

GUIDANCE FOR REMNANTS OF TC ANN(27P)
GUIDANCE FOR REMNANTS OF TC ANN(27P)

GUIDANCE FOR INVEST 95P
GUIDANCE FOR INVEST 95P
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Jeudi 16 Mai 2019 à 12:09