90W near Yap: little development expected. 91W southeast of Chuuk: development anticipated near next 36/48hours



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Previous publications: https://www.meteo974.re/INVEST-90W-currently-close-to-Palau-chances-of-development-downgraded-for-the-next-24hours_a789.html
https://www.meteo974.re/INVEST-90W-currently-close-to-Palau-chances-of-development-downgraded-for-the-next-24hours_a789.html

INVEST 90W
As of 00:00 UTC May 05, 2019:

Location: 8.6°N 138.7°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 mb
ABPW10 PGTW 050600
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.4N 138.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.6N 138.7E, APPROXIMATELY 60
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 050012Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ PARTIAL IMAGE SHOW AN ILL-DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH CENTRALIZED CONVECTION. A RECENT
ASCAT PASS REVEALS A BROAD AND WEAK ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 10-15
KNOT WINDS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WITH WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-
31 CELSIUS) REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMIC MODELS
AGREE ON A SLOW WESTWARD TRAJECTORY AND MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
----------------------------------------------------------

INVEST 91W

As of 06:00 UTC May 05, 2019:
Location: 2.5°N 162.2°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb
ABPW10 PGTW 050600
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
 (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
2.6N 162.1E, APPROXIMATELY 670 NM EAST-SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT, SCATTERED CONVECTION. RECENT ASCAT
IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH A SWATH OF 15-20 KNOT WINDS IN
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS 91W BORDERING
AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (15-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH
EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 CELSIUS)
IN THE SURROUNDING WATERS SUPPORT FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE A NORTHWARD TRAJECTORY WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER
THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

GUIDANCE(MODELS) FOR INVEST 90W
GUIDANCE(MODELS) FOR INVEST 90W

GUIDANCE(MODELS) FOR INVEST 91W
GUIDANCE(MODELS) FOR INVEST 91W

GUIDANCE(MODELS) FOR INVEST 91W
GUIDANCE(MODELS) FOR INVEST 91W

Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Dimanche 5 Mai 2019 à 11:11