INVEST 90W currently close to Palau: chances of development downgraded for the next 24hours


Global models currently agree on limited development


INVEST 90W DOWNGRADED FROM MEDIUM TO LOW
INVEST 90W DOWNGRADED FROM MEDIUM TO LOW
https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
https://www.meteo974.re/

Previous publication: https://www.meteo974.re/INVEST-90W-460km-to-the-southeast-of-Yap-may-develop-next-few-days_a784.html

INVEST 90W
As of 06:00 UTC May 03, 2019:

Location: 7.4°N 136.5°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt( 40km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb
ABPW10 PGTW 030600
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 4.1N 138.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.1N 137.4E, APPROXIMATELY 19
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY,
ALONG WITH A 030028Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, SUGGESTS A WEAK
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION. A 021217Z ASCAT
PASS SHOWS BROAD TROUGHING WITH A SMALL SWATH OF 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS TO
THE NORTH. 90W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, LOW (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND
VERY WARM (30 TO 31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90W WILL REMAIN WEAK WHILE TRACKING
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

GUIDANCE FOR INVEST 90W
GUIDANCE FOR INVEST 90W

GUIDANCE FOR INVEST 90W
GUIDANCE FOR INVEST 90W
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Vendredi 3 Mai 2019 à 11:37