90W near Palau: not much expected next 48/72hours. 92W near Pohnpei: gradual development expected


92W is up-graded to MEDIUM for the next 24hours


92W IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM
92W IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM
SATELLITE ANIMATION DOWN THE PAGE:  PLEASE CLICK TO ANIMATE.

https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
https://www.meteo974.re/

Previous publications: https://www.meteo974.re/90W-near-Yap-little-development-expected-at-the-moment-92W-gradual-intensification-next-36-48hours_a796.html
https://www.meteo974.re/90W-near-Yap-little-development-expected-91W-southeast-of-Chuuk-development-anticipated-near-next-36-48hours_a794.html

INVEST 90W
As of 06:00 UTC May 07, 2019:
Location: 8.0°N 136.0°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 mb

ABPW10 PGTW 070300
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.5N 136.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.9N 136.4E, APPROXIMATELY 112
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 060421Z ATMS 165GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A POORLY ORGANIZED,
BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT, SCATTERED CONVECTION. A
RECENT PARTIAL ASCAT PASS REVEALS AN ELONGATED WIND FIELD WITH
SEVERAL 15-20 KNOT WINDS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS 90W BORDERING
AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH
SUPPORTIVE OUTFLOW ALOFT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 CELSIUS)
IN THE REGION REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMIC
MODELS AGREE ON A WESTWARD TRACK WITH MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION OVER
THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

INVEST 92W
As of 06:00 UTC May 07, 2019:
Location: 3.9°N 163.6°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 mb

 (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 2.9N 162.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.5N 161.2E, APPROXIMATELY 226
NM SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH INTERMITTENT DEEP
CONVECTION OVERHEAD, OBSCURED BY A LARGE CIRRUS SHIELD. A 062305Z
METOP-B ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH AN AREA OF 15
TO 25 KNOT WINDS TO THE WEST. 92W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
MARGINAL (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD
AND INTENSIFY TO WARNING STATUS WITHIN 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

GUIDANCE(MODELS) FOR INVEST 90W: NOT MUCH EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 48/72HOURS
GUIDANCE(MODELS) FOR INVEST 90W: NOT MUCH EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 48/72HOURS

GUIDANCE(MODELS) FOR INVEST 92W: GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 48/72HOURS
GUIDANCE(MODELS) FOR INVEST 92W: GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 48/72HOURS

00UTC
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Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mardi 7 Mai 2019 à 11:14