Western North Pacific: TY 02W(SURIGAE) now a CAT2(90knots), forecast to peak at 120knots(CAT 4) by 48h,low confidence in the track forecast after 72h,16/15utc update

02W(SURIGAE). 16/14UTC. 6 HOUR LOOP.ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN EYE POPPING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONVECTION.

02W(SURIGAE). WARNING 13 ISSUED AT 16/15UTC.ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ROBUST EQUATORWARD AND IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA. TY 02W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CAUSED BY AN APPROACHING MID- LATITUDE TROUGH.TY 02W IS FORECAST TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARD THIS WEAKNESS IN THE STR THROUGH 48H. BY 48H THE STR TO THE EAST BUILDS AND TAKES OVER AS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM, CAUSING TY 02W TO TURN NORTHWARD. THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY DUE TO ROBUST UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AMPLIFIED BY THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WITH TY 02W REACHING PEAK INTENSITY OF 120KNOTS/CAT 4 BY 48H. AFTER 72H, TY SURIGAE CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE EAST. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE AS THE AMOUNT OF UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY BY 96H CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO DECREASE TO 90KNOTS/CAT 2 BY 120H.

02W(SURIGAE). NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS DIVERGED FURTHER FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING WITH ECMWF AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 120H MAKING LANDFALL ON LUZON JUST PRIOR TO 120H. THE MOST RECENT GFS RUN HAS NOW TRACKED FURTHER WEST BEFORE RECURVING, WHEREAS ALL OTHER MODELS RECURVE MORE QUICKLY WITH JGSM, UM AND THE UM ENSEMBLE MEAN AS THE EASTERNMOST SOLUTIONS. THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD HAS INCREASED TO 540KM AT 72H LEADING TO FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE EARLY PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.NUMERICAL MODEL CROSS-TRACK SPREAD HAS INCREASED TO 1150KM AT 120H AS TRACK SOLUTIONS DIVERGE FURTHER, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.

02W(SURIGAE). MODEL GUIDANCE: GFS ENSEMBLE.

02W(SURIGAE).16/1046UTC METOP-A ASCAT PASS CLEARLY DEPICTS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ADDITIONALLY, WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON THE ASCAT PASS.

02W(SURIGAE). MODEL GUIDANCE: ECMWF ENSEMBLE.

02W(SURIGAE). 16/06UTC. AVN INTENSITY GUIDANCE. PEAK INTENSITY AT +30H= 112KNOTS/947HPA. USUALLY THE ACTUAL PEAK INTENSITY IS ABOVE THE AVN SOLUTION.

02W(SURIGAE). 16/0947UTC.

02W(SURIGAE).24H SHEAR TENDENCY.UW-CIMSS Experimental Vertical Shear and TC Intensity Trend Estimates: CIMSS Vertical Shear Magnitude : 9.0 m/s (17.5 kts)Direction : 107.2deg Outlook for TC Intensification Based on Current Env. Shear Values and MPI Differential: FAVOURABLE OVER 24H.