meteo





Typhoon Lekima is making landfall south of Taizhou with top gusts approaching 200km/h


10W: Warning 23/JTWC. 11W: Warning 16/JTWC


Météo974

M974World


WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

TY LEKIMA(10W)
As of 12:00 UTC Aug 09, 2019:

Location: 27.5°N 122.1°E
Maximum Winds: 95 kt ( 175km/h)
Gusts: 115 kt ( 215km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 935 mb
CATEGORY US: 2
WEAKENING

WDPN31 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 23//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 148 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 5-10 NM ROUND EYE IN ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY PROVIDES HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL POSITION. DESPITE THE EYE REMAINING SMALL AND ROUND,
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THE SURROUNDING
CONVECTION HAS BECOME ASYMMETRIC WITH WARMER CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
ON THE NORTHERN SIDE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KTS IS BETWEEN
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM T4.5-6.0 (77-115 KTS) AND IS JUST
ABOVE A 091200Z ADT ESTIMATE OF 92 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT HAS GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM
(29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE; HOWEVER, THERE DOES APPEAR
TO BE SOME COMPARATIVELY DRY, CONTINENTAL AIR ENTRAINING IN FROM THE
WEST THAT IS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING, ALONG WITH LAND INTERACTION, TO
THE CONTINUED WEAKENING SEEN OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. TY 10W IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. SHORTLY AFTER MAKING LANDFALL ABOUT 175 NM SOUTH OF SHANGHAI,
CHINA AROUND TAU 06, TY 10W WILL BEGIN TRACKING NORTHWARD AS THE STR
REORIENTS AND RECEDES SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS
NEAR SHANGHAI ON A NORTHWARD TRACK AROUND TAU 24 AND PASS BRIEFLY
OVER THE YELLOW SEA ON A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK BEFORE MAKING A
SECOND LANDFALL NEAR QINGDAO, CHINA AROUND TAU 48. LAND INTERACTION
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO 45 KNOTS BY TAU 72. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS VERY UNCERTAIN BECAUSE SMALL SHIFTS IN THE TRACK COULD
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE AMOUNT OF WEAKENING DUE TO LAND INTERACTION.
NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION
OF THE FORECAST, LENDING TO GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST THROUGH TAU 72.   
   C. BETWEEN TAU 72 AND 120, TY 10W IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD AND BEGIN ROUNDING THE STR AXIS. HIGH
VWS AND LAND INTERACTION ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING THE
SYSTEM; HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS HIGH
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE AMOUNT OF LAND INTERACTION TY 10W WILL
ENCOUNTER. NUMERICAL MODEL SPREAD INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AS A
BIFURCATION OCCURS AROUND TAU 72. GLOBAL MODELS ARE EQUALLY SPLIT
BETWEEN TWO LIKELY SCENARIOS CONSISTING OF CAPTURE BY AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ANORTHEAST TRACK, OR POSSIBLE INTERACTION
WITH TY 11W RESULTING IN A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK BACK INTO THE YELLOW
SEA. TRACK SPREAD HAS INCREASED TO OVER 700 NM AT TAU 120. THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST FAVORS THE FIRST SCENARIO FOLLOWING A MORE
NORTHEASTWARD TRACK WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TY KROSA(11W)
As of 12:00 UTC Aug 09, 2019:
Location: 22.2°N 141.4°E
Maximum Winds: 85 kt ( 160km/h)
Gusts: 105 kt (195km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 956 mb
CATEGORY US: 2
WEAKENING

WDPN33 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 11W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 156 NM SOUTH OF
IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON A 40
NM RAGGED EYE IN ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR).
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH A T4.5-5.0 (77-90
KTS) MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK FIX CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE. THIS IS
FURTHER SUPPORTED BY A 091200Z ADT ESTIMATE OF 85 KTS. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS FAIRLY SUPPORTIVE WITH WEAKENING OUTFLOW, LOW (05-10
KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE BEING PARTIALLY OFFSET BY SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN SECTOR DUE TO AN INDUCED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. TY 11W IS
QUASI-STATIONARY IN A COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH A NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTH AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS, PRIMARY STEERING FOR TY 11W WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO THE STR TO THE NORTH OF TY 11W AND THE TRACK
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD JAPAN, PASSING SOUTHWEST OF
IWO TO AROUND TAU 36. SLIGHTLY DIMINISHED OUTFLOW, WEAK ENVIRONMENTAL
SUBSIDENCE, AND CONTINUED MARGINAL VWS WILL MAKE THE ENVIRONMENT
SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE AND GRADUAL WEAKENING TO 70 KTS IS ANTICIPATED
BY TAU 72. MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER,
GIVEN HIGH UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN TY 11W TRANSITIONS BETWEEN STEERING
MECHANISMS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 11W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR UNTIL TAU 96 WHEN IT SHIFTS MORE NORTHWARD
AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE STR AXIS. INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND SHEAR BECOME
SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, NAVGEM BECOMES AN
OBVIOUS EASTERN OUTLIER AS IT TRACKS EAST OF JAPAN AND THEREFORE, THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED JUST WEST OF THE CONSENSUS TRACK TO
OFFSET THE OUTLIER. TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 120 IS APPROXIMATELY 250NM
LARGELY DUE TO RECURVE TIMING. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
INTENSITY DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY IN RECURVE TIMING. BASED ON HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST, CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST REMAINS LOW IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.//
NNNN


 

LEKIMA(10W) IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST OF SHANGHAI IN 23H WITH NEAR 55KNOTS WINDS
LEKIMA(10W) IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST OF SHANGHAI IN 23H WITH NEAR 55KNOTS WINDS

KROSA(11W): WARNING 16: TYPHOON INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS THE CYCLONE SLOWLY APPROACHES SOUTHERN JAPAN
KROSA(11W): WARNING 16: TYPHOON INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS THE CYCLONE SLOWLY APPROACHES SOUTHERN JAPAN


09/12UTC. KROSA(11W)
09/12UTC. KROSA(11W)

10W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
10W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

11W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
11W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Vendredi 9 Août 2019 à 20:31