meteo





Typhoon Faxai should hit Yokosuka and Tokyo within 12h with top gusts over 200km/h close to center



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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

TY FAXAI (14W)
As of 06:00 UTC Sep 08, 2019:
Location: 33.0°N 139.0°E
Maximum Winds: 110 kt ( 205km/h)
Gusts : 135kt ( 250km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 945 mb
CATEGORY US: 3

WDPN31 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 14W (FAXAI) WARNING NR 027//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 14W (FAXAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 142 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 15NM ROUND EYE, WHICH, ALONG WITH HOURLY
RADAR FIXES, SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES AN ONGOING EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLE (ERC) WITH THE INNER EYEWALL SURROUNDED BY AN OUTER EYEWALL
FLANKED BY INTENSE DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE OUTER SPIRAL BANDING
OVER HONSHU. A 080431Z AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A COMPACT CORE WITH A
BANDING FEATURE EXTENDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 110 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 5.5-6.0 (102-115 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS OF LOW (5-15 KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) VALUES. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. HOWEVER, THE FORECAST TRACK
HAS SHIFTED ABOUT 13NM WEST AND IS NOW OVER YOKOSUKA.
   B. TY FAXAI IS FORECAST TO TURN MORE POLEWARD AS THE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO ROUND THE STR AXIS WITHIN THE NEXT SIX HOURS. AS EVIDENCED
BY 08/07Z AND 08/08Z RJTD RADAR FIXES, WHICH INDICATE A MORE
NORTHWARD TRAJECTORY. TY FAXAI WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR TAU 12 THEN  
IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AS IT TRACKS BACK OVER THE
PACIFIC OCEAN, ALBEIT WITH COOLER SSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
ANTICIPATED AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE KANTO PLAIN BUT THE SYSTEM
SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL AT ABOUT 90 KNOTS INTENSITY. AFTER TAU 12,
INCREASING VWS AND DIMINISHING OUTFLOW WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM. AT TAU 24, TY 14W WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT)
AS IT ENTERS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE, COMPLETING ETT BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24, LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Remnants of TY LINGLING (15W)
As of 00:00 UTC Sep 08, 2019:

Location: 46.3°N 130.0°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 982 mb
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Remnants of TD KAJIKI (16W)
As of 00:00 UTC Sep 08, 2019:

Location: 19.9°N 116.6°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1001 mb
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INVEST 95W

As of 00:00 UTC Sep 08, 2019:

Location: 12.7°N 147.4°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 mb
ABPW10 PGTW 080600
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.7N 149.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 144.3E, APPROXIMATELY
23 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING,
DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. A 072337Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
INDICATES A WEAKLY DEFINED LLC. HOWEVER, A 072338Z ASCAT-B IMAGE
SHOWS A DEFINED, SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH 15-20 KNOT WINDS.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM PGUM INDICATE SLP NEAR 1005.5MB WITH A 24-
HOUR SLP DECREASE OF 1.6MB. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KNOTS)
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY BROAD DIFFLUENCE. THE MOST
RECENT SOUNDING FROM GUAM SHOWS DEEP EASTERLY FLOW OVER GUAM WITH A
DEEP MOISTURE PROFILE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THE SYSTEM QUICKLY AFTER TAU 24 AS
IT TRACKS SLOWLY WESTWARD.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INVEST 96W
As of 00:00 UTC Sep 08, 2019:

Location: 27.9°N 125.2°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 mb
ABPW10 PGTW 080600
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 27.2N 124.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 125.3E, APPROXIMATELY
267 SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHEJU ISLAND, SOUTH KOREA. THIS SYSTEM IS
ASSESSED AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS LOCATED UNDER A SHARP UPPER-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT AT 200MB AND 500MB.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ASYMMETRIC,
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION
SHEARED OVER THE NORTH QUADRANT. A 080454Z AMSR2 36GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS A BROAD, WEAKLY DEFINED LLC WITH WEAK BANDING
DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. A 080115Z PARTIAL ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD
CIRCULATION WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
TO HIGH (20-25 KNOTS) SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK
POLEWARD DIVERGENCE. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM
SHOULD TRACK POLEWARD WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT BUT A LOW PROBABILITY
FOR TRANSITIONING INTO A WARM-CORE TROPICAL SYSTEM. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.




08/0847UTC
08/0847UTC

08/0602UTC. DMSP
08/0602UTC. DMSP

08/0602UTC DMSP
08/0602UTC DMSP

08/0431UTC/ COMPACT SYSTEM
08/0431UTC/ COMPACT SYSTEM

TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

08/0530UTC
08/0530UTC


08/00UTC
08/00UTC

INVEST 96W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INVEST 96W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Dimanche 8 Septembre 2019 à 13:22