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Super Typhoon Lekima(10W): direct hit to the Yaeyama. Krosa(11W) peaking as a category 3


10W: Warning 18/JTWC. 11W: Warning 11/JTWC


LEKIMA(10W): WARNING 18. SUPER TYPHOON 10W IS FORECAST TO TRACK VERY CLOSE TO ISHIGAKI NEAR PEAK INTENSITY WITHIN THE NEXT 12H
LEKIMA(10W): WARNING 18. SUPER TYPHOON 10W IS FORECAST TO TRACK VERY CLOSE TO ISHIGAKI NEAR PEAK INTENSITY WITHIN THE NEXT 12H
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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

STY LEKIMA(10W)
As of 06:00 UTC Aug 08, 2019:

Location: 23.6°N 125.5°E
Maximum Winds: 130 kt ( 240km/h)
Gusts: 160 kt ( 300km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 912 mb
CATEGORY US: 4
NEAR PEAK INTENSITY

WDPN31 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING
NR 18//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 214 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY AS EVIDENCED BY A TIGHTLY COMPACT CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH
ANNULAR CHARACTERISTICS AND A SHARPLY OUTLINED 8-NM EYE. THE TRAILING
RAIN BANDS TO THE SOUTHWEST HAVE DETACHED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE THAT LINED UP
PERFECTLY WITH A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE PINHOLE EYE IN THE 080421Z
GPM 36GHZ COLORIZED IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 130KTS IS BASED
ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T6.5/127KTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD AND
REFLECTS RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM SST (30C). STY 10W IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 10W WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR, MOVING MORE NORTHWARD AFTER TAU 36 AS THE
STR REORIENTS IN A NORTH-SOUTH CONFIGURATION TO THE EAST. BY TAU 48,
THE SYSTEM WILL REACH THE EAST COAST OF CHINA NEAR TAIZHOU. THE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL SUSTAIN THE CURRENT STY UP TO TAU 12.
AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND LAND INTERACTION WILL WEAKEN IT TO
60 KNOTS BY TAU 72, SHORTLY AFTER TRACKING OVER SHANGHAI. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 100NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS
AT TAU 72, LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.   
   C. AFTER TAU 72, STY LEKIMA WILL TURN MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND
FURTHER INLAND ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BUILDING STR. RAPID
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED PRIMARILY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION, LEADING TO
DISSIPATION BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODELS SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE IN ALL
DIRECTIONS AS THEY LOSE THE WEAK VORTEX; THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

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TY KROSA(11W)
As of 06:00 UTC Aug 08, 2019:
Location: 22.1°N 140.6°E
Maximum Winds: 100 kt ( 185km/h)
Gusts: 125 kt (230km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 946 mb
CATEGORY US: 3
PEAK INTENSITY LIKELY

WDPN33 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 11W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 167 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 01 KNOT
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) AS IT RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIED (RI) AND MAINTAINED A 14-NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 100KTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T5.5/102KTS
FROM PGTW AND RJTD AND REFLECT THE RI. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD AND EASTWARD OUTFLOW (TEMPERED ONLY
BY SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHWEST SECTOR), LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND WARM SST (30C). TY 11W IS IN A COL BETWEEN A WEAKENED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST AND A BUILDING NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 11W WILL REMAIN QS IN THE COL UP TO TAU 12. AFTERWARD, THE
NER WILL SLOWLY STEER IT NORTHEASTWARD. AROUND TAU 36, THE STR WILL
REBUILD AND RESUME STEERING AND DRIVE THE SYSTEM NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD JAPAN. INCREASING VWS AND REDUCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 70KTS BY TAU 72. THE NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT; HOWEVER, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
 IN THE TRANSITION BETWEEN THE STEERING MECHANISMS, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TY KROSA WILL CONTINUE TRACKING
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR. COOLING SSTS, IN
ADDITION TO THE INCREASING VWS, WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THE SYSTEM
DOWN TO 65KTS BY TAU 120. THE NUMERICAL MODELS SPREAD OUT TO OVER
400 NM BY TAU 120, LENDING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION
OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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REMNANTS OF FRANCISCO( 09W)
As of 06:00 UTC Aug 08, 2019:

Location: 42.2°N 136.5°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 mb

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INVEST 96W
As of 00:00 UTC Aug 08, 2019:
Location: 16.5°N 118.7°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 994 mb
 

10W MAY TRACK CLOSE TO SHANGHAI IN APPROX 72H
10W MAY TRACK CLOSE TO SHANGHAI IN APPROX 72H

08/0725UTC.DMSP. LEKIMA(10W)
08/0725UTC.DMSP. LEKIMA(10W)

08/0731UTC. LEKIMA(10W).
08/0731UTC. LEKIMA(10W).


KROSA(11W): WARNING 11. INTENSITY HAS PROBABLY PEAKED
KROSA(11W): WARNING 11. INTENSITY HAS PROBABLY PEAKED

08/06UTC: KROSA(11W)
08/06UTC: KROSA(11W)

08/0611UTC: KROSA(11W)
08/0611UTC: KROSA(11W)


10W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
10W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

11W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
11W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Jeudi 8 Août 2019 à 12:45