meteo





Lingling: category 3 forecast within 36h. 14W: category 1 forecast near 72h


14W: Warning 11/JTWC. 15W: Warning 10/JTWC


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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

TS 14W
As of 06:00 UTC Sep 04, 2019:
Location: 18.2°N 158.4°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts : 45kt ( 85km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 mb
WDPN31 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W (FOURTEEN) WARNING
NR 11//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1429 NM
SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE EAST.
THE TUTT CELL, PREVIOUSLY LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC, HAS
SLOWLY TRACKED AWAY FROM TS 14W, ALLOWING FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP
ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE USING A 040456Z GMI 37GHZ IMAGE AND MSI. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS ACCORDING TO PERSISTENT
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 2.5 FROM PGTW/KNES AND A
032246Z ASCAT-C PASS DEPICTING 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. WITH THE TUTT CELL MOVING SLOWLY AWAY, THERE
IS A FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE SYSTEM WITH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR VALUES OF APPROXIMATELY 5 TO 15 KNOTS. THERE IS GOOD POLEWARD
AND EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, HOWEVER, OUTFLOW REMAINS
SLIGHTLY RESTRICTED TO THE WEST. TS 14W IS TRACKING TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. THIS FORECAST IS HIGHLY
CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS JTWC WARNING.
   B. THE STR OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY
STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH TAU 72. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30
DEGREES CELSIUS) WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE ALONG THE TRACK. THE UPPER-
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION
AFTER TAU 24. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, SO THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
THROUGH TAU 72.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, THE STR WILL SHIFT EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WHICH WILL ENABLE TS 14W
TO RECURVE POLEWARD. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, ALONG WITH
AN ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL WILL ALLOW TS 14W TO INTENSIFY
TO 90 KNOTS BY TAU 96. RAPID WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AFTER TAU 96
AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE JAPAN ALPS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
DIVERGES WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS DUE TO MAJOR DIFFERENCES
IN TRACK SPEED AND THE TIMING OF THE RECURVE. THEREFORE, THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

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TY LINGLING ( 15W)
As of 06:00 UTC Sep 04, 2019:
Location: 22.5°N 125.1°E
Maximum Winds: 75 kt ( 140km/h)
Gusts: 90 kt ( 170km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 973 mb
CATEGORY US: 1

WDPN32 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 15W (LINGLING) WARNING NR 10//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 15W (LINGLING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 282 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
RAGGED 11NM EYE. A 040517Z AMSR2 36GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO
MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY VIGOROUS
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY BUT
REMAINS WEAK DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES TO THE
NORTH. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C) REMAIN CONDUCIVE. TY 15W IS
TRACKING SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A WEAK EXTENSION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, THE 04/00Z UPPER
AIR SOUNDINGS FROM MINAMIDAITO-JIMA AND NAZE INDICATE SOUTHEASTERLY
TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO 350MB, WHICH PROVIDES
EVIDENCE OF THE STR SITUATED OVER THE RYUKYU ISLANDS. THIS DOMINANT
STR WILL TURN THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.      
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. THE 34-KNOT AND 50-KNOT WIND
RADII ARE BASED ON A DETAILED ANALYSIS OF A RECENT ASCAT BULLSEYE.
   B. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, THE STR SITUATED OVER THE RYUKYU
ISLANDS AND SOUTH OF JAPAN IS EXPECTED TO TURN THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXACT TIMING OF THE POLEWARD SHIFT. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 WITH A 40NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT
TAU 48. THE MODELS DIVERGE SLIGHTLY BUT REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 72 SHOWING A NORTHWARD TRACK. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH TAU 36, THEREFORE, TY 15W IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 105 KNOTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
AFTER TAU 36. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
   C. IN THE LONG TERM, TY 15W WILL RECURVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO
NORTHEASTWARD WHILE UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT).
RAPID WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS THE SYSTEM EXNCOUNTERS COOLER SST,
INCREASING VWS AND TRACKS OVER LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL COMPLETE ETT BY
TAU 120. THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK SPEEDS.//
NNNN

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Remnants of TD KAJIKI(16W)
As of 00:00 UTC Sep 04, 2019:
Location: 17.0°N 107.6°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 999 mb

 

14W: WARNING 11
14W: WARNING 11

15W: WARNING 10
15W: WARNING 10

15W: 04/08UTC
15W: 04/08UTC

15W: 04/08UTC
15W: 04/08UTC

15W: 04/06UTC
15W: 04/06UTC

15W: 04/0125UTC
15W: 04/0125UTC

14W: 04/06UTC
14W: 04/06UTC

14W: 03/2204UTC
14W: 03/2204UTC

14W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
14W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

15W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
15W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

REMNANTS OF 16W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
REMNANTS OF 16W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mercredi 4 Septembre 2019 à 13:18